No more Quad version?

[cvalue13]

I like your estimated price of the ATV, I'll be getting that one as well.

the trick isn’t paying for it

the trick is getting offered one

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[Jhodgesatmb]

we should make this a contest - who gets the closest with their guess - In My Opinion -
There will be Dual and Quad
Dual will have a big motor in the rear, small motor in the front
Quad will have big motors in the rear, smaller motors in the front
Quad will have range advertised of 500 plus and will actually be over 600.
Dual will have rated range of 300 plus with optional LR package of 420. $10,000 option.
Dual will have optional all wheel steering, AWS will be standard on Quad.
Dual will cost $55,000 to new purchasers ( reservation holders of Single, Dual, and Tri will purchase for original $49,900. )
Quad will cost $82,000.
ATV will cost $4900
Camper pack will cost $2900.

That is a lot of predictions for a contest. Good luck picking a winner

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I will not lose any sleep if Tesla drops the quad and keeps the tri. I remember when Elon announced the quad version that all I could think was: "I don't need that" and "if the quad gets produced first then my tri will be pushed further out". Seeing as Tesla has focused on function over form, and manufacturing simplicy, I could only see Tesla building a quad if it was more cost effective / efficient to build a quad than a tri (Elon focused on CT affordability at an earnings call last spring).

With 4WS we get everything we need with a dual or tri. I chose a tri for the range, not for the off-roading or towing capabilities, so like many have said before, if they made a dual with 500-mile range I'd be willing to bet that a lot of reservation holders would take it (me being one of them).

So the question of whether there will still be a quad CT is almost moot to me. That said, the announcement of only 3 motors in the Semi doesn't make me think that the CT won't have a quad.

 

[shilvock22]

we should make this a contest - who gets the closest with their guess - In My Opinion -
There will be Dual and Quad
Dual will have a big motor in the rear, small motor in the front
Quad will have big motors in the rear, smaller motors in the front
Quad will have range advertised of 500 plus and will actually be over 600.
Dual will have rated range of 300 plus with optional LR package of 420. $10,000 option.
Dual will have optional all wheel steering, AWS will be standard on Quad.
Dual will cost $55,000 to new purchasers ( reservation holders of Single, Dual, and Tri will purchase for original $49,900. )
Quad will cost $82,000.
ATV will cost $4900
Camper pack will cost $2900.

A lot of good thoughts that you've put together here... However, I don't think there's any way a quad motor is under $100,000. I personally think the top of the line quad motor will be close to $130,000

 

[shilvock22]

I will not lose any sleep if Tesla drops the quad and keeps the tri. I remember when Elon announced the quad version that all I could think was: "I don't need that" and "if the quad gets produced first then my tri will be pushed further out". Seeing as Tesla has focused on function over form, and manufacturing simplicy, I could only see Tesla building a quad if it was more cost effective / efficient to build a quad than a tri (Elon focused on CT affordability at an earnings call last spring).

With 4WS we get everything we need with a dual or tri. I chose a tri for the range, not for the off-roading or towing capabilities, so like many have said before, if they made a dual with 500-mile range I'd be willing to bet that a lot of reservation holders would take it (me being one of them).

So the question of whether there will still be a quad CT is almost moot to me. That said, the announcement of only 3 motors in the Semi doesn't make me think that the CT won't have a quad.

I think the big driving factor for Tesla making a quad motor cyber truck is the fact that Rivian is already making a quad motor truck and Tesla needs to up their game.

 

[SolarWizard]

The quad motor CT will not cost less than a model X

 

[shilvock22]

The quad motor CT will not cost less than a model X

I couldn't agree more

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I couldn't agree more

You two sincerely believe that Tesla will raise the price of the tri-motor by 60%? What are you smoking?

 

[shilvock22]

You two sincerely believe that Tesla will raise the price of the tri-motor by 60%? What are you smoking?

We're talking about the quad motor, not tri motor. And yes, it's not that crazy. Rivian just increased the price of their trucks by 10% and Ford did the same thing in less than a year since introducing the lightning. The tri motor cyber truck was priced 3 years ago before any of the inflation and supply shortages. So if Ford has to increase their price by 10% in less than a year, I think it's totally feasible that the cybertruck is about 20 to 30% underpriced, based on its 2019 numbers.

Now, if you look at the fact that the tri motor plaid Model s is almost 30%, more expensive than a dual motor model s, then It's not difficult to think that a quad motor cybertruck could be priced at least 25% above the tri motor price.

The icing on the cake is that there's probably about a 20 times longer wait list for the cyber truck than any of their other models. That kind of demand gives Tesla the green light to charge whatever they want. Historically, Tesla has responded to overwhelming demand with price increases, so we know they manage supply and demand very well with pricing.

Throw these three different ingredients together and I think you can easily find that A quad motor cyber truck with unprecedented demand could easily warrant a price between $120-130,000.

Trust me, I don't want it to be true but I'm just being realistic.

 

[SolarWizard]

You two sincerely believe that Tesla will raise the price of the tri-motor by 60%? What are you smoking?

Name off stats of a model X that best a quad motor ct

 

[SpaceYooper]

We're talking about the quad motor, not tri motor. And yes, it's not that crazy. Rivian just increased the price of their trucks by 10% and Ford did the same thing in less than a year since introducing the lightning. The tri motor cyber truck was priced 3 years ago before any of the inflation and supply shortages. So if Ford has to increase their price by 10% in less than a year, I think it's totally feasible that the cybertruck is about 20 to 30% underpriced, based on its 2019 numbers.

Now, if you look at the fact that the tri motor plaid Model s is almost 30%, more expensive than a dual motor model s, then It's not difficult to think that a quad motor cybertruck could be priced at least 25% above the tri motor price.

The icing on the cake is that there's probably about a 20 times longer wait list for the cyber truck than any of their other models. That kind of demand gives Tesla the green light to charge whatever they want. Historically, Tesla has responded to overwhelming demand with price increases, so we know they manage supply and demand very well with pricing.

Throw these three different ingredients together and I think you can easily find that A quad motor cyber truck with unprecedented demand could easily warrant a price between $120-130,000.

Trust me, I don't want it to be true but I'm just being realistic.

Yeah but...
1. Maybe most importantly, CT4 does not necessarily mean Plaid.
2. If CT4 is not Plaid, multiple discussions have been made on this forum site stating why a 4 motor variant does not directly equate to higher production cost vs a 3 motor. Motors are not that expensive and a 3 motor variant might be more complicated requiring more parts. It may not be a wash but there are tradeoffs.
4. Tesla's margins are better than Ford's so the 10% bump is not necessary.
My next points are captured more thoroughly here https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/unless-a-new-class-of-buyer-joins-there-will-not-be-many-takers-at-85k-for-a-pickup.5424/post-110765 but I will summarize with points 5 and 6.

5. Sort of piggy backs on point 4, but Tesla no doubt planned for some level of inflation when they released truck pricing 3 yrs before their stated (at that time) release date for the AWD models of 2022. Yes you read that right. In 2019 Tesla stated their AWD models would not be out until 2022. So all this crap about the CT being late is also just internet toilet paper.
6. Tesla undoubtedly built in some level of cushion in their pricing in 2019 beyond inflation because they didn't even have a factory yet, nor did they have their new battery finalized, much less did they have 3rd party contracts ready to supply it, nor did they have their 8T or 9T gigapress, nor contracts to mass produce the stainless steel variant they were going to use for the truck, etc. They knew there was a ton of variables ahead. They would have been conservative knowing they were taking a risk of releasing a price.

I believe Tesla is smart enough to account for most of these things to some degree when they released their pricing. You must think Tesla is run by buffoons that don't understand risk.

My bet; because of their conservative risk approach to the pricing release in 2019, is that the final CT production reveal in 2023 would have come with a shock the industry moment and minor price decrease, if it wasn't for the pandemic, factory shut downs, world wide transportation issues, chip shortages, inflation, etc. As the situation is what it is, prices will hold steady.

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