Pricing ramifications for Cybertruck - based on recent FSD and Model 3 pricing changes

[rudedawg78]

Once again... If you reserved at the $7K price, then you are good to go.

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[Crissa]

I do think Tesla will honor original FSD pricing, but my question is if it counts towards the MSRP cap.

It does not, it says so on Tesla's site today.

Only attached equipment at the time of delivery counts. Downloaded software doesn't count.

...So the EVSE shouldn't count, either. It's not attached.

As regards to FSD, that would violate the state law in a criminal fashion. They promised FSD specifically.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

Volume production of cybertruck at Fremont is off the walls but the pilot line was there. Future Tesla bot production would probably be a better fit for space if S/X do get retired.

As for international markets, I just don't see it happening in the next couple of years. Some seem to think China will be the next factory to build cybertruck for the eastern hemisphere. Mexico is still in very early stages, but maybe in 3-5 years. As Ford/GM has grown to service so many countries over decades of being in business, Tesla may someday get there too but it will take time.

S won't get retired. X maybe. I think Tesla's pricing swings might hurt sales in the long run.

But they've been selling Model Ys since early 2020. Mid-2022 is more than two years after release, and there is no order backlog in North America. I never suggested that prices do not move. But you seem to be suggesting above that at initial release they will jack up the price of the CyberTruck, and then back that down over time. They have yet to do that on any vehicle release.

The "limited founders edition" shenanigans where you pay an extra $25k for the first edition, which has different wheels and a commemorative pinstripe is a ploy that other OEMs use, not Tesla. They will hit profitability by selling a lot of trucks, not by selling a few trucks for a lot of money. If they launch at $90k, many potential buyers will cross the CT off their list and never look back.

It's about capturing significant market share year after year. Not gouging the most ardent fanatics and then becoming an overpriced niche vehicle. At number 600k you might very well have more battery options. But I would be very surprised if you see a much better sale price.

The M3 came out in 2018 and wasn't close to their $35k target for several years. The top trim initial release will be $79,420 and it won't have 500 mile range. That is my prediction one month out.

 

[Tinker71]

There is still plenty of reasons for truck buyers to stick to ICE if pricing is not attractive. Knowing Tesla's intention is to sell at high volume, it will need to be closer to Model 3/Y pricing than Model S/X as long at we aren't talking 500 miles.

Elon's X space with Jim Farley said he didn't want trucks lugging heavy batteries around if they didn't need them. I absolutely couldn't see a 500 mile tri-motor variant coming in below $80k. Going 1000V architecture and increasing the charging speeds was a hint that they would optimize for weight/efficiency over range. I'm sure they will get to producing 500 mile variants when energy density & run rate increase.

Warning: Total Off the Wall Speculation
The large decreases in Model S/X pricing could show soften demand for these products. It could be even more radical and be the end of these products to make room for cybertruck production in Fremont. San Francisco needs all the armor glass it can get. I'd love to see a video of them parking one at Fisherman's Wharf and someone trying to break in.

Without high margins, it probably doesn't make sense to still produce MS/MX. Elon has even said something like they only make them for sentimental reasons. They already announced an end to right hand drive MS/MX. This might be them just clearing inventory.

I liked the first half of your message. But Fremont is a mess. I can't see them making the CT there. Model S and X infrastructure is already there. They will just slow production if margin drops too far. What the did is kill Lucid. I am really considering an S or X.

 

[Crissa]

The M3 came out in 2018 and wasn't close to their $35k target for several years. The top trim initial release will be $79,420 and it won't have 500 mile range. That is my prediction one month out.

Several?

https://www.tesla.com/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now


-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

Several?

https://www.tesla.com/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now


-Crissa

Sure if you really dug for it. 220 miles of range at the time too. They didn't really want people to buy it. But I will give Elon some credit. He did want to honor his commitment and 8 years later we will see an awesome Model 3 Highlander for $35,000. 2 years from now we will see a smaller version for $25k?

Who knows how this will work out. I am a reservation holder and TSLA holder. I just see a pattern of erratic pricing and a lot of mixed messages.

I also think Elon's intention is to transition the world to renewable energy is what drives him more than money. He is turning into a conceited arse-hole, but if any single person has accelerated this mission it has been him.

Some people with money will overpay initially as they have the whole time. This paves the way for the next generation of better vehicles at much better prices that more of the masses can buy.

Tesla is pushing the entire market to help save the planet. Tesla wants to ramp to 20 million vehicles per year. They knew they wouldn't get 30% margin the whole time. With the helo of the competition the majority of the ICE fleet can be replaced by 2035.

Nobody really thought it was possible but one pretty smart guy with Asperger's.

 

[CYBRSMTH]

FSD reduced to $12,000, Highland price is initially $500 higher than current M3. I think both of these are telling.
1.) Highland was supposedly cost reduction driven. It looks like an performance upgrade. It should cost less to build, but Tesla is going to charge more to start with for the newness factor and better range. I suspect there will be bump of sales, then the price will start to decline to be several thousand less than now.
2.) FSD is almost pure profit. Obviously few people were paying $16,000 for it. Many early CT reservations are at $6000 I think. I am in the top 3rd overall and the price changed to $8,000 it may have been listed higher. Sometime after that there was no price listed on CT reservations.

Elon has been a bit shrewd lately. I hate to be negative, but I think pricing will shockingly high to start.

1.) Tesla will want to re capture the $6000 price delta on the FSD on the first 200k units or so.
2.) Tesla will gradually lower prices over the next 2 years. The low price FSD reservations will be exhausted. Many people will initially pass on their reservations due to cost which will be fine for Tesla because they will no longer be obligated to sell FSD for $6000.

I think Tesla overvalues their FSD. (Besides it not being fully functional), Not everyone wants to be in the Robotaxi business, but they might want to take an occasional nap while driving. Tesla needs a solid policy on transfers. This should be easy.

1.) Pay XX for a life of car subscription. Say $8000.
2.) Pay XX plus $4000 to make the subscription transferrable for the next 10 years.
3.) The commercialization value is captured through the Robotaxi App on a per transaction basis. (this keeps the price of the basic FSD down)

I do think it is interesting that Tesla has not discussed transaction cost. They are shrewd and getting shrewder on the way to a 1000% valuation gain.

I like my reservation number 600k ish. I think I am in a sweet spot for price and maybe some better battery tech.

All of this aside, Elon keeps saying the CyberTruck is difficult to produce and that they’ll make as many as people want and can afford. The 2019 prices are gone. That was 4 years ago and before all of this inflation and supply chain bottlenecks, which are improving.

I personally think the single-motor entry-level CT will be dropped. That leaves the dual-motor and the tri-motor. I don’t think they’re going to make a unique quad-motor just for the CT. The motors will be the same ones they use in other vehicles to save time and money.

I THINK (yes, I’m speculating) that if we’re lucky, the launch model of the CT will be under $80K so it qualifies for the $7,500 rebate next year. The price will come down eventually and other models will release as well. Have one model cannibalize another doesn’t make sense. They’ll go with the one that most people put reservations down for. I’m thinking the dual-motor. Then they can use a smaller battery pack and churn out more CTs. FSD will be the new discounted price of $12,000. Still not worth it in my opinion.

 

[Dutch]

Another will FSD be honored:

Teslarati - FSD Pricing

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