Model 3 Pricing Versus Average Car Price (And Cybertruck vs Truck)

Ogre

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Since it’s launch, the least expensive Model 3 has closely followed the price of the average car. Within $300 in fact. This is not a coincidence.

My feeling is Cybertruck will be priced the same with one small alteration. The short range Cybertruck (single motor or maybe dual motor) will be the “Base” Cybertruck and cost the same as the average pickup truck. The dual motor will be $10,000 more expensive, and the 500 mile truck $30,000 more expensive.

The short range truck will probably not ship right away, but will serve as an invisible placeholder until demand slows enough to ship it.

Tesla Cybertruck Model 3 Pricing Versus Average Car Price (And Cybertruck vs Truck) 1672798043688



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Tesla compared the cost of driving a Cybertruck to the cost of driving an F150 on launch day. Right now “Average“ full size pickup truck cost is $60k so… maybe your $65k guess for the dual motor is closer to the truth than my guess of $60k.

Though in fairness it was a king cab F150 so not exactly “Average” truck, a number which is skewed by large numbers of fleet vehicles.

Though at some point Tesla has to make the Cybertruck appealing to those buyers as well.
 

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Since it’s launch, the least expensive Model 3 has closely followed the price of the average car. Within $300 in fact. This is not a coincidence.

My feeling is Cybertruck will be priced the same with one small alteration. The short range Cybertruck (single motor or maybe dual motor) will be the “Base” Cybertruck and cost the same as the average pickup truck. The dual motor will be $10,000 more expensive, and the 500 mile truck $30,000 more expensive.

The short range truck will probably not ship right away, but will serve as an invisible placeholder until demand slows enough to ship it.

1672798043688.png



My impression, perhaps incorrect, was that the entry-level Cybertruck was supposed to have a competitive price against a full-sized ICE pickup, not an average pickup. Was your intention to say full-sized pickup or was Tesla's intention to price the CT below the competitors? We know that the entry-level Lightning and Silverado, both full-sized pickups, albeit EVs, are priced around where the single-motor CT was originally priced. How they have continued this is well known - they are losing money. Even without inflation there is no way that Ford or GM could compete with Tesla on the cost of building a truck. Sadly, all my gibberish doesn't lead me to numbers, just a conclusion that if you are correct then Tesla 'might' be able to hold their original prices, at least better than Ford or GM.
 
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My impression, perhaps incorrect, was that the entry-level Cybertruck was supposed to have a competitive price against a full-sized ICE pickup, not an average pickup. Was your intention to say full-sized pickup or was Tesla's intention to price the CT below the competitors? We know that the entry-level Lightning and Silverado, both full-sized pickups, albeit EVs, are priced around where the single-motor CT was originally priced. How they have continued this is well known - they are losing money. Even without inflation there is no way that Ford or GM could compete with Tesla on the cost of building a truck. Sadly, all my gibberish doesn't lead me to numbers, just a conclusion that if you are correct then Tesla 'might' be able to hold their original prices, at least better than Ford or GM.
Price parity and performance superiority. It is comparable price when you take into account cost of operations, but it performs much better and is better for the environment. That was the pitch on day 1 anyhow.
 


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My impression, perhaps incorrect, was that the entry-level Cybertruck was supposed to have a competitive price against a full-sized ICE pickup, not an average pickup. Was your intention to say full-sized pickup or was Tesla's intention to price the CT below the competitors? We know that the entry-level Lightning and Silverado, both full-sized pickups, albeit EVs, are priced around where the single-motor CT was originally priced. How they have continued this is well known - they are losing money. Even without inflation there is no way that Ford or GM could compete with Tesla on the cost of building a truck. Sadly, all my gibberish doesn't lead me to numbers, just a conclusion that if you are correct then Tesla 'might' be able to hold their original prices, at least better than Ford or GM.
That 42k touted price is mid 50’s now too. Ford tapped out quickly on that suicide mission.
 

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It is important to note that the data Bloomberg uses is average vehicle price, not average car price. That number is inclusive of the 80% of new vehicles sold in the US that are already SUVs and trucks.

The data identified in the source is "Edmunds and Bloomberg intelligence." The long-time-consumer of Edmunds and Manaheim data I am, I recognize this as just another name for a metric Edmunds publishes monthly called "Average New Vehicle Price". The specific definition of this metric, provided by Edmunds, is:

The average selling price of a new vehicle.

The article is not saying that M3 cost = average car cost. It's saying average cost of all vehicles sold. Inclusive of SUVs and trucks.
 

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Can I throw some numbers into the mix as evidence the CT may cost less than many are predicting?

Tesla announced the CT in November of 2019. And announced the base prices to be $40k, $50k, and $70k. According to Google the average price of a truck in 2019 was ≈$51k.

Tesla Cybertruck Model 3 Pricing Versus Average Car Price (And Cybertruck vs Truck) 1672859788677


The original plan was to start producing the $50k and $70k by late 2021 and the $40k in late 2022. I suspect Tesla would assume the average price of a truck would go UP every year. So, from the information given, Tesla planned on having the lowest cost CT be at least $10k less than the average price of a full-size pickup.
 

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Can I throw some numbers into the mix as evidence the CT may cost less than many are predicting?

Tesla announced the CT in November of 2019. And announced the base prices to be $40k, $50k, and $70k. According to Google the average price of a truck in 2019 was ≈$51k.

1672859788677.png


The original plan was to start producing the $50k and $70k by late 2021 and the $40k in late 2022. I suspect Tesla would assume the average price of a truck would go UP every year. So, from the information given, Tesla planned on having the lowest cost CT be at least $10k less than the average price of a full-size pickup.
Yup. Furthermore, Tesla has stated that the Cybertruck will be the same or cheaper to produce than the Model 3.

So I just don't see why they'd drastically change prices when they have repeatedly said that their goal is to have as many vehicles on the road as possible.

I would be shocked if the base CT is more than $50K.
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