Ogre

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While I agree with everyone that the 29K in 2024 seems low.. Tesla doesnt exactly have the best reputation of meeting production expectations. I mean.. So far the Model Y is the only vehicle they put into production ahead of schedule or (on time)

I just think the overall graph and chart showing just how big the CT will be for Tesla is awesome, I think each production number the author gave will be triple/quadruple what they are showing.

Keep in mind batteries are still the largest constraint.
???

Tesla built over 100,000 Model 3s in the first year of production. Model Y was even more. Model 3 launched on time and while production was “Slow” in the first quarter, they still managed to get 15,000 units out.

Giga Shanghai built 150k cars in the first year of operation.
 

Ehninger1212

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???

Tesla built over 100,000 Model 3s in the first year of production. Model Y was even more. Model 3 launched on time and while production was “Slow” in the first quarter, they still managed to get 15,000 units out.

Giga Shanghai built 150k cars in the first year of operation.
Did you miss the end where I said battery constraints? The reason the Semi and roadster have both been significantly delayed. Do you suspect that is going to end anytime soon? with all these other companies wanting batteries as well? I'm not pretending to be able to see into the future.. but im sure we will have a better idea of what to expect in January.
 

Sirfun

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Did you miss the end where I said battery constraints? The reason the Semi and roadster have both been significantly delayed. Do you suspect that is going to end anytime soon? with all these other companies wanting batteries as well? I'm not pretending to be able to see into the future.. but im sure we will have a better idea of what to expect in January.
I personally don't think the issue with the Roadster, Semi, and Cybertruck is battery "constraint".
I think they were all revealed with the belief that new battery design (4680) was going to make them possible. Like you said, hopefully we'll get more information about Tesla's production roadmap, soon.
 

Ogre

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Did you miss the end where I said battery constraints? The reason the Semi and roadster have both been significantly delayed. Do you suspect that is going to end anytime soon? with all these other companies wanting batteries as well? I'm not pretending to be able to see into the future.. but im sure we will have a better idea of what to expect in January.
You said Tesla “doesn’t have a history of meeting production expectations”. That is largely nonsense.

If Tesla doesn’t have their battery situation for the Cybertruck under control by 2024, they are going to be in a whole lot of hurt since much of their new products will be on hold. It’s possible, but considering recent comments from management seems unlikely.
 

Richard V.

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You said Tesla “doesn’t have a history of meeting production expectations”. That is largely nonsense.

If Tesla doesn’t have their battery situation for the Cybertruck under control by 2024, they are going to be in a whole lot of hurt since much of their new products will be on hold. It’s possible, but considering recent comments from management seems unlikely.
Tesla has a number of Aces up its sleeves coming from Canada. :cool:
 

Ogre

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Tesla has a number of Aces up its sleeves coming from Canada. :cool:
Canadians are known for saying “Sorry” a lot. Usually apologizing for some trivial thing.

Now it’s a Canadian saying “You’ll be Sorry”.

(An American english way of saying the person you are talking to is in for a bad time)
 

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I'm a super patient, tolerant and all encompassing man. But I have a very strict policy where anyone who has an opinion that doesn't align perfectly with mine, I call bullshit
 

Ehninger1212

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You said Tesla “doesn’t have a history of meeting production expectations”. That is largely nonsense.

If Tesla doesn’t have their battery situation for the Cybertruck under control by 2024, they are going to be in a whole lot of hurt since much of their new products will be on hold. It’s possible, but considering recent comments from management seems unlikely.
Going back in time... The original Model X had huge problems at launch.. i get it.. its complicated.. (I think this is what realllyyy drove tesla to its awesome vertical integration strategy.) Then the model 3.. huge problems at launch, very steeep s curve production. They NAILED the model Y.. but blew way past intended start of production for both the SEMI and the Roadster 2.0.. totally delayed starting production of the refreshed model S and X.. ( I still think they are still working out major issues) now they pushed back the CT.

I absolutely LOVE tesla. I am a share holder.. and I cannot WAIT for my CT and I know Tesla has vastly superior technology when it comes to manufacturing.. well.. anything. I'm just saying they tend push dates for starting production of things and for a while now batteries has been the limiting factor.. like.. im pretty sure that's been the limiting factor since before the model 3 started production and that was when Tesla was basically the only kid on the block. Sure.. COVID caused delays as well. no doubt.. but this has been a thing with Tesla. and we need to recognize that S curve when they actually get production going on the CT. Elon is already hinting its not going to be easy to build. Which is scary because it was marketing as being easy to manufacture.

I hope with all my heart Tesla is just sandbagging us. We will have a better picture end of january.
 

Ogre

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Going back in time... The original Model X had huge problems at launch.. i get it.. its complicated.. (I think this is what realllyyy drove tesla to its awesome vertical integration strategy.) Then the model 3.. huge problems at launch, very steeep s curve production. They NAILED the model Y.. but blew way past intended start of production for both the SEMI and the Roadster 2.0.. totally delayed starting production of the refreshed model S and X.. ( I still think they are still working out major issues) now they pushed back the CT.

I absolutely LOVE tesla. I am a share holder.. and I cannot WAIT for my CT and I know Tesla has vastly superior technology when it comes to manufacturing.. well.. anything. I'm just saying they tend push dates for starting production of things and for a while now batteries has been the limiting factor.. like.. im pretty sure that's been the limiting factor since before the model 3 started production and that was when Tesla was basically the only kid on the block. Sure.. COVID caused delays as well. no doubt.. but this has been a thing with Tesla. and we need to recognize that S curve when they actually get production going on the CT. Elon is already hinting its not going to be easy to build. Which is scary because it was marketing as being easy to manufacture.

I hope with all my heart Tesla is just sandbagging us. We will have a better picture end of january.
A lot is made of Tesla‘s “Production Hell” with the Model 3, but on the scale of things it was entirely overblown. Model 3 production started on time and during first quarter of production, Tesla averaged 1,000 cars per week. In the second quarter they averaged 2,000 cars per week.

That was “Production Hell”.

Tesla has had a lot of trouble getting their new battery platform out the door which has delayed pretty much their entire next generation lineup. But once they start manufacturing, Its likely to go like gangbusters.
 

alan auerbach

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A lot is made of Tesla‘s “Production Hell” with the Model 3, but on the scale of things it was entirely overblown. Model 3 production started on time and during first quarter of production, Tesla averaged 1,000 cars per week. In the second quarter they averaged 2,000 cars per week.

That was “Production Hell”.

Tesla has had a lot of trouble getting their new battery platform out the door which has delayed pretty much their entire next generation lineup. But once they start manufacturing, Its likely to go like gangbusters.
Maybe covid, climate, and conflict will resolve, production proves to be smooth, reviews are positive, and Tesla replaces the Big Three. Or not. You can guess, estimate, and suppose all you want, but we don't know.
 

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90k units by 2026, estimated 3 years after launch. Seems like they are way too conservative based on the factory estimated maximum output. If Tesla is only producing 90k in 2026, sounds like they would be practically going out of business . Not adding billions to revenue.
100k units a year is not competitive in a market that sells on the order of 3 million trucks a year. I don't think this is about getting 3% market share - you don't go through this much effort to not make a dent. A standard car plant can produce 200-400k per year. Why would an alleged mass produced truck be economic at such low production rates? I would imagine that they need at least 300k/yr to spread development costs, and ultimately target 500k-750k per year if they want to actually compete in this space (which would still be less than the F150).
 

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100k units a year is not competitive in a market that sells on the order of 3 million trucks a year. I don't think this is about getting 3% market share - you don't go through this much effort to not make a dent. A standard car plant can produce 200-400k per year. Why would an alleged mass produced truck be economic at such low production rates? I would imagine that they need at least 300k/yr to spread development costs, and ultimately target 500k-750k per year if they want to actually compete in this space (which would still be less than the F150).
Yeah. That's why I said the article was absurdly conservative and if Tesla was doing what the article suggests.. They would be failing as a business. You don't build a giga factory that can do massive production and then only produce sub 100k a year after 3 years of production. That's how you fail as a business.
 
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