Reservation and data biases creating discord in our community?

[Wraven]

Preamble:
Before I go into this - I want to thank anyone and everyone that has contributed their intellectual energy, time and enthusiasm. This is simply another way for us to look at the current situation and debate if we should realign expectations.

Body of Thought:
Its possible that there are biases emerging that this website (and others) have created by identifying a pattern of incremental ascending numbers of the reservations for Cybertruck. Listing these and then estimating where someone is in an assumed sequential order. This (by evidence of many threads and posts) is creating mindshare of the general population that their reservations would be serviced sequentially because the numbers incrementally ascended and many speculated data formatting highlights that to these individuals.

Folks have a reservation for the Cybertruck but the data currently is clearly highlighting there is some other variables/formula for when an individual is offered to configure their Cybertruck. While spreadsheets and primary functions of this site and others continue to communicate thats an individuals reservation is a "place in a sequential line".

Something to consider - these assumptions made by "us" fans/enthusiasts/excel gurus has contributed to a biased built that we clearly are seeing is not reality and causing a negative discourse.

Post Thought as I was typing this:
Maybe these unknown variables/formulas is only for the Foundation Series and it will move sequentially after that but right now thats an assumption with no real world data. (Yet the current tools and data are shaping expectations and biases)

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[Wraven]

I just want to say again - I'm very excited by the data and the work many individuals are putting in and I'm very glad and grateful to have that available to the community. This is just a thought exercise about how biases are created and unintended consequences of miss-aligned expectations.

 

[Jyak]

Thank you-- my new expectation is that my July 2020 reservation will jump ahead of many and that I'll be able to take delivery in the spring.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

As we all know, the initial deliveries, whether they have reservation numbers or not, will go to friends, employees, and illuminati. When will that end? Perhaps a few thousand? I don't claim to know. Yes, none of us know what the current algorithm is, but we know that geography and associated logistics play into it. Even for the FS trucks. So we have to get past the FS stage to see any form of algorithm that will apply to the larger number of RNs. Only then will we be able to determine or decide on the sequentiality of the ordering invitations. I suspect that it will remain heavily geographical and logistics based for some time to come but as to other factors I refuse to guess.

 

[Broski]

Interesting topic. I wonder if original reservations that included trimotor and full self driving would be prioritized as those reservations could argue would be more likely to convert at the current available, much higher priced foundation series offering?

 

[carsly]

I think the idea here is an important one. Others have debated potential variables that could be in the mix:
- number of prior Tesla cars owned
- proximity to Tesla service center (I'd offer that it's unlikely all Tesla techs/service centers have been trained on Cybertruck as of yet, so proximity to service center with trained techs - which we don't know - may be the actual factor at work)

If I were issuing invites, I'd build a predictive model based on probability to purchase and issue invites that way regardless of reservation number. That model could/would likely include variables such as:
- credit score
- estimated household income
- zip code (another income proxy)
- debt to income level
- available credit

...and my wildcard...number of shares beneficially held. In fact, your Tesla account has a facility to upload verification of shareholdings. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if number of shares held, and duration of ownership, were factors involved in the invitation process.

I don't work for Tesla, know anyone who works for Tesla, or have any inside information. I do hold a December 2019 reservation (no invitation to configure yet), a reasonable credit score, and a paltry number of Tesla shares.

 

[hatfield]

Except when paying cash, what does credit score, income, debt ratio & available credit matter? Perhaps cash buyers would be a good priority target?

 

[rudedawg78]

I'm good. I want all the initial bugs and kinks worked out of the foundation Cybertrucks before I take delivery of mine.

 

[heems]

There is no line. It’s an illusion because the reservation numbers appear sequential.

 

[carsly]

Except when paying cash, what does credit score, income, debt ratio & available credit matter? Perhaps cash buyers would be a good priority target?

You can pull all of the variables I noted from a credit bureau report. I don't know where a company could access cash holding data in one centralized repository, ideas?

 

[UnRich1]

I think the idea here is an important one. Others have debated potential variables that could be in the mix:
- number of prior Tesla cars owned
- proximity to Tesla service center (I'd offer that it's unlikely all Tesla techs/service centers have been trained on Cybertruck as of yet, so proximity to service center with trained techs - which we don't know - may be the actual factor at work)

If I were issuing invites, I'd build a predictive model based on probability to purchase and issue invites that way regardless of reservation number. That model could/would likely include variables such as:
- credit score
- estimated household income
- zip code (another income proxy)
- debt to income level
- available credit

...and my wildcard...number of shares beneficially held. In fact, your Tesla account has a facility to upload verification of shareholdings. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if number of shares held, and duration of ownership, were factors involved in the invitation process.

I don't work for Tesla, know anyone who works for Tesla, or have any inside information. I do hold a December 2019 reservation (no invitation to configure yet), a reasonable credit score, and a paltry number of Tesla shares.

I’m right there with you.

 

[mrbulk]

Got the invite day after Christmas and configured right away (RN112787xxx), not an employee and don’t know any, never held any shares of Tesla stock, not an influencer nor illuminati, don’t live near a Tesla factory…although this’ll be our 4th Tesla beginning with a late 2017 lease of a 2018 Model S75D.
Just an FYI. Thass muh story an ah’m stickin’ to it.

 

[Chris9702L]

It would go a long way if they would just come out on the order they are going with. Communication is key. I understand if employees and CA/TX get first dibs. But it’s just puzzling to other people and myself as to the order they are going. I’m kinda glad I’m at 11284 because I’d be tempted to buy a foundation if I got the invite.

 

[Fleetwood75]

A certain level of discord will persist in the community as long as there is high demand concurrent with a supply constraint. I saw this already in the TMC forums while waiting 450 days from reservation-to-delivery on the refresh Model X. During that it seemed like Tesla was randomly handing VIN's out to people regardless of original order date.

When Tesla reaches a point where Reservation-to-Delivery times are like 6 weeks instead of 4 years then this discord will go away but until then people will always find a reason to be upset.

 

[Sousray]

Regardless of the Algorithm used, It still is not fair to the people that had no hesitation and placed a reservation order as quick as possible on the day of the launch in Nov 2019. Like most corporations, loyalty does not matter as much as the all mighty dollar. I have all the checkmarks: money, credit, income, location, Tesla Owner, and even work for a supplier of CT Components, but what I don't have is Tesla Employee, influencer, or stock (yet).
Just feel very disappointed since I am an early reservation holder 112745xxx.
I use to be so excited a few months ago when I thought I would be one of the first to get mine.
Even got my personal licence plate and placed it on my Model 3.
Now I am over the hype and using more intellect and less emotion in my decision to buy and when.
Now I can wait, but this still changes my overall opinion about the way Tesla treats its customers.

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