Reservation Dropout Percentage

[cyberstalker]

Do we have a general guess of the normal “dropout” percentage from those who reserve vehicles? Is it safe to assume that 20% of the people who’ve reserved a CT won’t actually purchase the vehicle? $100 is such a small amount to reserve a place in line, but I’m guessing that a significant number of people won’t go through with the $50-100k purchase when the time comes.

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[charliemagpie]

Like myself, I think many people who have ordered multiples may cancel some orders.

I think 20% is a good number.

 

[ED_SFO]

I would say take rate would be in the 30% range...much different times from 2019 till now especially rates for loans. Plus if the prices are much higher than anticipated more will fall off. Pretty sure what they will do is message the first aay 100k reservations and ask to configure their vehicle...then they will see which of those are high ticket, high spec units that they are building first. Or message all the tri-motor ppl who want to change and configure for the quad.

 

[JBee]

If the prices are close to reveal I expect the first 100-200,000 orders to have less than 10% drop outs. Everyone keeps quoting the $100 reservation fee as a reason, but reality is even millionaires only had to pay $100 too, there was no $1000 or more option for them. So having a smaller deposit size doesn't necessarily mean all the reservations were dreamers and will drop out. In fact the product has become so compelling, you might have even more conversions and sales from those deposits now especially if you factor in fuel prices and running costs. Buying a CT is even more cost effective per km.

 

[flowerlandfilms]

When I paid the $100 ($150 AUD) I had no way of earning even a ten percent deposit. But here we are and I have that much and then some.
I'm stretching however I can for a Tesla, like many people do.
If I drop out it won't be for lack of interest or for lack of trying.

 

[cvalue13]

trying to collect ‘out loud’ the main buckets of folks who may ‘drop out’ of the overall reservation numbers (at least in the first few years):

• all non-U.S. reservations

• folks with multiple reservations

• folks generally no longer interested/affording (and not trying to flip)

• [folks who ordered motor configs not initially available, and not interested/affording the upgrade]

• folks who have since passed away from old age…

The bracketed item above seems like the biggest impediment to guessing dropout rate, until we know the rollout plans.

But still, looking across the four serious bullets above, the ‘drop out’ rate relevant to the first few years of deliveries would seem possibly high. >50%?

 

[Crissa]

20-25% was the dropout rate on Model 3 and Model S.

So it's a good base line.

We don't know if that includes foreign orders or not, but they're definitely not getting served in their place in line.

-Crissa

 

[TBONO]

I’d guess the drop out rate isn’t linear, e.g., 1st 50K orders more likely to move forward vs order #250K+

 

[Crissa]

I’d guess the drop out rate isn’t linear, e.g., 1st 50K orders more likely to move forward vs order #250K+

Maybe, but they were also placed longer ago and more likely to have lost their contact info. Of course first 50K are all first-night reservations, too.

-Crissa

 

[jcryer3]

I think this going to be a different process. Once you configure your vehicle, it will have to be paid in full; they will que up the build directly from the paid in full que. They are going to want seamless transition from reservation to build. It will keep production high and cost lower.

 

[TBONO]

I think this going to be a different process. Once you configure your vehicle, it will have to be paid in full; they will que up the build directly from the paid in full que. They are going to want seamless transition from reservation to build. It will keep production high and cost lower.

I don’t think people are paying in full until they’re taking delivery. Several states have laws I believe.

 

[Blue Steel]

trying to collect ‘out loud’ the main buckets of folks who may ‘drop out’ of the overall reservation numbers (at least in the first few years):

• all non-U.S. reservations

• folks with multiple reservations

• folks generally no longer interested/affording (and not trying to flip)

• [folks who ordered motor configs not initially available, and not interested/affording the upgrade]

• folks who have since passed away from old age…

The bracketed item above seems like the biggest impediment to guessing dropout rate, until we know the rollout plans.

But still, looking across the four serious bullets above, the ‘drop out’ rate relevant to the first few years of deliveries would seem possibly high. >50%?

I'd bet the dropout rate is solidly north of 75%. But I'm including folks who don't cancel their reservation, but also don't convert it to an order when given the opportunity.

The world is wildly different than it was in 2019. Who knows how much more it will change in the next year. And I think many people thought the reveal truck was a joke and the real truck would look more like a typical truck. Once reality sets in...

 

[JBee]

trying to collect ‘out loud’ the main buckets of folks who may ‘drop out’ of the overall reservation numbers (at least in the first few years):

• all non-U.S. reservations

• folks with multiple reservations

• folks generally no longer interested/affording (and not trying to flip)

• [folks who ordered motor configs not initially available, and not interested/affording the upgrade]

• folks who have since passed away from old age…

The bracketed item above seems like the biggest impediment to guessing dropout rate, until we know the rollout plans.

But still, looking across the four serious bullets above, the ‘drop out’ rate relevant to the first few years of deliveries would seem possibly high. >50%?

I am foreign but will take delivery in the USA of the first one. The others are on different names, but I'm hoping for Australian delivery. Either way I'm not planning on not converting, rather am expecting a later Australian delivery. So the reservations still stand, they just won't be served until CT production gets there and vehicles are assigned overseas. That is not the same as dropping out, its just a reshuffle of positions depending on if Tesla thinks it should stoke overseas markets with a more limited local release, for which I'd be high on the list too.

 

[John K]

80% dropout rate for the first 193,999

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