Tesla announces 4680 production is up to 1m cells per week (enough for 600 Cybertrucks)

[Ogre]

So then #216,000 comes in at April of 2024. That's not going to work for me. We have to do better than that, team. Let's work on shaving those numbers to September 2023. I just can't possibly wait longer than that. Let's get on it. Please.

I’ll forward your concerns to Elon.

Anyone else concerned they might not get their truck soon enough, I might as well send them all at once.




Oh… there’s a million+ people frustrated they won’t see their truck until 2024 or later? I’ll get right on this.

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[charliemagpie]

I believe the ramp is bottle necked by the packaging of the 4680 itself, in that there is/was still a process of reducing rejection to near to zero as possible.

If we have reached our objective, now it is just a matter of scaling that method with the installation of this improved equipment.

Possibility? :
We may have, for example, only have one 'packaging' production line working, the other 10 could take only a couple of months to install.

 

[Ogre]

I believe the ramp is bottle necked by the packaging of the 4680 itself, in that there is/was still a process of reducing rejection to near to zero as possible.

If we have reached our objective, now it is just a matter of scaling that method with the installation of this improved equipment.

Possibility? :
We may have, for example, only have one 'packaging' production line working, the other 10 could take only a couple of months to install.

It’s been ramping pretty steadily for the past 3 quarters. None of the teardowns seem to have the DBE or chemistry improvements we. We were hoping for in the final, but I think they are attacking it incrementally.

 

[fritter63]

At the risk of blowing this thread up with my own posts (too late). I found a really interesting thread which sums up a lot of my own feels about 4680. (And to a larger extent Cybertruck).

Yes it’s late. That doesn’t change that it is awesome.

I'm not listening to anyone who can't count......

 

[M. Ralston]

One more addendum.

Tesla has doubled their 4680 production every quarter to this point.

At that rate,

• 2m/ week end of Q1
• 4m/ week end of Q2
• 8m/ week end of Q3… that’s enough for 2,000 Cybertrucks per week during 3rd quarter of 2023.
• Enough for 4,000 Cybertrucks per week coming into Q4. Happy coincidence.

This rate of expansion should continue until well after they’ve provided enough capacity for Cybertruck growth. We have 2 overlapping ramps going on: Fremont and Austin. Plus Fremont just added 4x additional floor space which should allow them to continue expansion there.

No word on new chemistries yet.

Awesome…so my reservation at 690,000 should only take 3 years…so I should get my configuration email after the refreshed model comes out 2027-28…at $250,000…good times!

 

[Ogre]

Awesome…so my reservation at 690,000 should only take 3 years…so I should get my configuration email after the refreshed model comes out 2027-28…at $250,000…good times!

I don’t think they stop there. I suspect we’ll see 500k Cybertrucks a year coming out of Texas well before 2028

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

Interestingly, @ a current run rate of 1mil per week *and* if stockpiled between now and start for the CT production run, there should be a substantial quantity available initially.

 

[Ogre]

Interestingly, @ a current run rate of 1mil per week *and* if stockpiled between now and start for the CT production run, there should be a substantial quantity available initially.

Seems like some of them are going into Model Y packs and getting stockpiled.

I think by the time Cybertruck ramp starts, 4680 production will be able to keep up with little trouble. Unless the Cybertruck ramp is super fast. With this battery ramp. If the truck ramps quicker than battery production, it would be a good problem to have. Seeing 4,000 Cybertrucks a week by year end?? Yes please.

 

[fritter63]

So on the topic of 4680 production, how to interpret the constant doubling? Have the dry electrode clumping problems been solved and it's just working out the kinks in the production machinery now?

 

[Crissa]

So on the topic of 4680 production, how to interpret the constant doubling? Have the dry electrode clumping problems been solved and it's just working out the kinks in the production machinery now?

Well, they had one half done in the sample... Not the cathode, which was surprising. But that was pre-production.

So maybe? We don't know. That part is just reducing the footprint of production - something they've done before. It's not key to the 4680 working, though. The 4680's key innovation is the continuous tab which allows it the size.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

So on the topic of 4680 production, how to interpret the constant doubling? Have the dry electrode clumping problems been solved and it's just working out the kinks in the production machinery now?

As @Crissa said, we’re not quite sure where the chemistry side of things is. Aside from a few rumors, last actual battery someone was able to crack open and share looked to be the product of a wet cathode. I’m sure they‘ve figured out something with the cathode by now, they are building a huge cathode factory in Texas. Whether the final version uses DBE and other innovations (silicon anode) is not clear. I’m sure it will improve over time.

 

[charliemagpie]

If demand and backlog is there, it will be fulfilled in a timely manner.

It may be 250,000 or 1 million units per year. We should not compare to past Tesla ramps. Distribution points are there already.

We may be making 2 new 9Ton as we speak, ready for shipment in April, for example. By December 23, we could be on our way to 750,000.

Apparently, we were dealing with another supplier.. who knows what is going on there ?

Coka Cola doesn't have a 1-year backlog, they produce on demand, we will not sit on our laurels.

 

[happy intruder]

At the risk of blowing this thread up with my own posts (too late). I found a really interesting thread which sums up a lot of my own feels about 4680. (And to a larger extent Cybertruck).

Yes it’s late. That doesn’t change that it is awesome.

this is a great synopsis of what has and is happening at Tesla.....I honestly have been very skeptical in the past of what was going on....but this puts everything in perspective for me and shows me how I was wrong to be so critical and not looking forward to the future enough......I have watched the building of Giga Texas every day from ground breaking and guess one gets caught up in the day to day stuff and loses sight of the carrot (CT) at the end.......I am now really excites about the CT.....just need see final specs

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