Tesla popup factories to speed Cybertruck to market

[Crissa]

To ne specific, every time Tesla maxes out a production line, they figure out how to optimize it. They'll build a new one in a parking lot. Build temporary structures. They'll reorganize the old one more efficiently. Recently, they're building up, adding vertical layers to existing buildings, buying more acreage.

They are not short ideas or will to optimize. They are not limited by number of buildings so much as machines and production lines built out. Which is what they're doing.

-Crissa

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[HaulingAss]

To ne specific, every time Tesla maxes out a production line, they figure out how to optimize it. They'll build a new one in a parking lot. Build temporary structures. They'll reorganize the old one more efficiently. Recently, they're building up, adding vertical layers to existing buildings, buying more acreage.

They are not short ideas or will to optimize. They are not limited by number of buildings so much as machines and production lines built out. Which is what they're doing.

-Crissa

Agreed. I have no clue where people are getting the idea that Tesla needs to build new factories now. They have two Gigafactories that haven't even started production yet. Both were designed to be expanded in future years. Production line throughput keeps increasing.

 

[Ogre]

I am not expecting Tesla to increase their prices much if any.

Tesla increasing product specs between pre-order and delivery is pretty typical and they have no increased prices during that window before. (Not ruling it out, but there is no precedence). The Model 3 was barely $35k ever. If you pre-ordered it, you were able to get that price. If you used the off-menu/ back door way, it was available for a few others. For anyone who pre-ordered any other trim of the Model 3 and Model Y, they got the promised pricing with no issues.

Tesla has 1.2m orders based on the truck they presented at the price they presented. Big pricing swings is going to result in big changes to that pre-order queue. Demand for a $100k truck is vastly different from demand for a $50k truck.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Agreed. I have no clue where people are getting the idea that Tesla needs to build new factories now They have two Gigafactories that haven't even started production yet. Both were designed to be expanded in future years. Production line throughput keeps increasing.

Tesla is 10 steps ahead of them. 2 massive factories opening doors within a month through the next year. These worries will evaporate in the next year as these two new factories drop production numbers that drop jaws to the floor. I'd tend to agree with the arguments being presented here.. if not for the fact that both of these factories are almost ready! Its rare that someone desperately asks for a solution.. when the solution is already provided to them.

 

[tidmutt]

Agreed. I have no clue where people are getting the idea that Tesla needs to build new factories now They have two Gigafactories that haven't even started production yet. Both were designed to be expanded in future years. Production line throughput keeps increasing.

Agreed... I find that confusing too. Those new factories are good for millions of vehicles each. Musk even said himself they won't be working on another gigafactory immediately. Perhaps they have a roadmap calling for more, but that's a couple of years down the road.

 

[Diehard]

The big problem is you are the crumple zone on that thing,

That is a feature. It guarantees you wife can collect on your life insurance.

What exactly is the design brief for the Tesla after Model 2? Model 2 is an exercise in strictly hitting a price target $25k USD.

That would be very interesting to see in U.S. In this market it seems like maximizing quarterly sales and Maximizing margins is name of the game. And I don't see how a $25K Tesla in U.S. will fit in, at least not before Ys and 3s are piled up on factory lots waiting for customers to order. In China, it may be a different story.

 

[Ogre]

That would be very interesting to see in U.S. In this market it seems like maximizing quarterly sales and Maximizing margins is name of the game. And I don't see how a $25K Tesla in U.S. will fit in, at least not before Ys and 3s are piled up on factory lots waiting for customers to order. In China, it may be a different story.

Tesla has massive demand and very limited supply and limited ability to manufacture product fast enough. Once their ability to keep up with orders catches up, I’m quite certain they will produce the $25k car. It just doesn’t make sense to move to the less expensive cars until they can meet the demands of what they are currently shipping.

I suspect Tesla won’t do pre-orders with the 25k Teska. Demand for the Cybertruck was so high, I expect the moment they announced a Model 2 it would have 5 million pre-orders. Maybe they won’t even pre-announce it. If they pre-announce, it could take a huge bite out of existing model sales.

 

[Ogre]

Agreed. I have no clue where people are getting the idea that Tesla needs to build new factories now They have two Gigafactories that haven't even started production yet. Both were designed to be expanded in future years. Production line throughput keeps increasing.

Tesla is looking to build new factories. Probably 2-3 new factories which will come online in 2-4 years after their just built facilities are getting up to speed.

(Going from memory here so be gentle with any corrections)

Tesla talked at Battery day building 15-20 battery factories producing the batteries they need by 2035. I suspect each battery factory will be co-located with a vehicle factory to minimize logistics.

Much of that capacity will come online later, closer to 2035 than now as demand and raw materials supply won’t be ready for some time.

 

[HaulingAss]

Tesla is looking to build new factories. Probably 2-3 new factories which will come online in 2-4 years after their just built facilities are getting up to speed.

(Going from memory here so be gentle with any corrections)

Tesla talked at Battery day building 15-20 battery factories producing the batteries they need by 2035. I suspect each battery factory will be co-located with a vehicle factory to minimize logistics.

Much of that capacity will come online later, closer to 2035 than now as demand and raw materials supply won’t be ready for some time.

The OP was talking about how converting existing but retired ICE manufacturing plants into dedicated Cybertruck "pop-up" factories would speed time to market. It's babble that makes no sense.

Of course Tesla will need new factories to continue to expand production at the correct time. My point was there is no need to do it now (and I don't see the point of these converted "pop-up" factories). It makes me think the OP has no clue what it takes to efficiently expand a heavy industrial enterprise in an efficient and timely manner. Retrofitting abandoned plants makes little sense when it comes to setting the factory up to produce efficiently.

Remember, Tesla is all about bringing the best possible products at the most affordable price to market. The compromises involved in retrofitting existing factories designed for 20th century auto manfucaturing is not going to work. Tesla is changing how cars are made. That's why Elon always says the factory is the primary product.

 

[Ogre]

The OP was talking about how converting existing but retired ICE manufacturing plants into dedicated Cybertruck "pop-up" factories would speed time to market. It's babble that makes no sense.

Of course Tesla will need new factories to continue to expand production at the correct time. My point was there is no need to do it now (and I don't see the point of these converted "pop-up" factories). It makes me think the OP has no clue what it takes to efficiently expand a heavy industrial enterprise in an efficient and timely manner. Retrofitting abandoned plants makes little sense when it comes to setting the factory up to produce efficiently.

Remember, Tesla is all about bringing the best possible products at the most affordable price to market. The compromises involved in retrofitting existing factories designed for 20th century auto manfucaturing is not going to work. Tesla is changing how cars are made. That's why Elon always says the factory is the primary product.

A point I think he no longer espouses.

My point was mostly agreeing with what you said. Tesla is building out factories on a fairly structure timeline over 10-15 years.

 

[Diehard]

Tesla has massive demand and very limited supply and limited ability to manufacture product fast enough. Once their ability to keep up with orders catches up, I’m quite certain they will produce the $25k car. It just doesn’t make sense to move to the less expensive cars until they can meet the demands of what they are currently shipping.

That was my point exactly. The thing is meeting demand for Tesla don’t seem to be anywhere in sight. Hopefully, Texas will change that.

 

[JackInTN]

Many ways can work, but Soon and the gang are choosing this way. But yes, I am anxious to get my CT too.

 

[Hunter]

...why not pop-up smaller plants?

I hear you that you think Tesla should do things some other way, but sorry, I think the word "pop-up", although easy to say and sounds really nice, has little connection to the reality of manufacturing at speed and with great economy.

 

[Crissa]

I hear you that you think Tesla should do things some other way, but sorry, I think the word "pop-up", although easy to say and sounds really nice, has little connection to the reality of manufacturing at speed and with great economy.

Depends on what the choke point is in any manufacturing process.

If it were just manpower or square footage, then pop up factories make sense. Carbon fiber cars like Aptera and trucks like Arrival are made in big pieces so space and assembly is the choke point and pop ups make sense and get around import laws by employing local labor and expertise.

-Crissa

 

[rr6013]

I hear you that you think Tesla should do things some other way, but sorry, I think the word "pop-up", although easy to say and sounds really nice, has little connection to the reality of manufacturing at speed and with great economy.

Actually, pattern recognition. Tesla iterates over EV reducing process, eliminating process and simplifying cost to manufacture.

Agreed pop-up is so disruptive, easy and no connection to the cost realities; say like in traditional sit down restaurant incurs over a pop-up chef launching a new menu. That was intentional.

In Cybertruck Elon has reduced process 4X(exoskeleton, 30XS.S., batterypack, castings), eliminated 3X order of mfg(paint,door handles,stamping) and simplified cost 7X(4680, effective mass, rolling platform, Steering wheel, glass roof, acoustic glass, 3% dimensional). Elon raised cost(RWS) and added process(Plaid).

Cybertruck by the time robots get done mfg it and humans see it; all’s left is assembly. @Diehard keenly observes the scale of GigaTX beyond human. Agreed max industrial.

Tesla could call it a day. Yet remains focused on making product simpler, smaller footprint, less process and fewer pieces means fewer people to assemble.

I take patterns to extremes ends to ask to what means? The end of that exercise was pop-up, small factory, existing plants and portability. It affords Tesla a model that travels well, locate worldwide and walkaway with a small investment renovating to repurpose.

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