Tesla popup factories to speed Cybertruck to market

Crissa

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The scale of Gigafactory Austin is such a scale that they won't just be keeping their assembly lines dry - they'll ne able to experiment with entire structures and lines and factories and we'll never see, under that roof.

That thing has enough space to fit everything that's at Fremont twice over, and then stacked twice.

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anionic1

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Why are we paying any attention to this post? Pop up factories? Really? you are saying that Tesla divert energy and resources from extremely high demand products to build popup factories to get the truck sooner. I am already very concerned that we are going to get a lesser product due to the economy and lead time issues affecting almost every sector and now you want to add makeshift structures to start producing something. CT will be the first mass produced truck to market in my opinion. That's great that GM and Rivian and Ford decided to finally get in the game but I am betting the CT will still get to 25,000 sold first because Tesla is staying the course. Yes, its a long course, but its a huge investment and it will very likely pay off.
 
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Pop up factories? Really? you are saying that Tesla divert energy and resources from extremely high demand products to build popup factories to get the truck sooner.
Yes really…
And
No…not saying divert away from Tesla cars to CT deliveries now. Popup points to a Tesla near(3-5yr) future where assemblies come together around the world in smaller than GIGA existing plants converted by Tesla.

Cybertruck simplification points away from needing a GM-style all-in-one factory. Giga provides a flywheel to spin off a highly modularized Tesla designed EV like it is doing with CT. Cybertruck is not an EM vanity project. 1.5 million pre-orders is not a cult.

Tesla technology lead is so far advanced. It is advanced beyond automotive, computer, AI and manufacturing industries measured in Teslas, measured in years and to be counted by dead ICE companies. Consumer acceptance buy-in on Teslas is already a given not so on just any EV.

Given @Crissa confirmation GigaAUSTIN is 3X factories stacked the supply-demand curve @Diehard matchup mentioned with just existing backlog Tesla have a Giga solution for now that @HaulingAss subscribes will not meet continuing demand not accounting increase in ICE to EV switchover demand in the future.

Giga solutions are not its only solution that its working. Popup is just one scenario to where supply-demand curves diverge could backfill the area under the curve in Teslas unmet supply. Ultimately, it could supply a simpler Tesla, affordably at competitive pricing without the need for more Giga spend. Popup assembly plants in TX, MX and CAN are first order probability feeders stocked by Tesla US Gigafactories. Popups in UK, SA, NA for GigaBerlin satellites. Popups in JPN, TAI, AUS for Shanghai.

Its cheapest to make on-site than ship. Its faster to assemble components than pieces. This is the direction Cybertruck design points.

Transportation is#1 cost. In 3-5yrs, it could be infeasible to ship whole cars by sea.

Construction is #1 time. Greenfield development of Giga acquisition, infrastructure, design and construction sucks 3-5yrs out of a Tesla timeline-to-market. Popup could cut 3yrs out of a new Giga factory scenario.

Labor is #1 resource. Tesla is all American HQ/Factory/Design except its China, Germany,… Giga factories reveals that EV is a big business that Tesla is committed to and at dominating the production of Teslas.

Demand surge Tesla can only respond with a GigaFactory by 2026 in India and 2024 in China. Everywhere else is a siphon on any facility’s production capacity in its Giga markets. Popup serves non-Giga markets, backfills Giga markets and establishes first mover Tesla branding in markets too small for a GigaFactory. SO popup reinforces Tesla economy-of-scale albeit and Tesla commanding brand acceptance through its cost reductions, elimination and still can be cost competitive brand-on-brand. Chinese brands(SAIC,BYD,BAIDU) EU(Stellantis, VW) brands and Tech brands(Apple,Xiaomi,Foxconn).
 

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I would turn this idea of pop up factories on it’s side a bit.

Tesla should work with other, smaller OEMs to bundle Tesla battery technology. Small companies like Arcimoto, Aptera, and even Alpha Motors could buy Tesla battery bundles and other manufacturing services for their product lines, then do the product finishing for their own vehicles.

Tesla does really well at *big* things. Let other companies focus on picking up the smaller things.

This would be trebly true if Tesla were willing to ship structural battery/ undercarriage bundles for companies. It would make for a tremendous amount of flexibility and diversity in vehicles which hasn’t existed in decades. The best battery pack combined with the craziest car ideas on the planet.

Also… Tesla has already teased the idea of FSD as a service. That is another technology beyond the reach of these small OEMs which could be a fantastic add on.
 


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Yes really…
And
No…not saying divert away from Tesla cars to CT deliveries now. Popup points to a Tesla near(3-5yr) future where assemblies come together around the world in smaller than GIGA existing plants converted by Tesla.

Cybertruck simplification points away from needing a GM-style all-in-one factory. Giga provides a flywheel to spin off a highly modularized Tesla designed EV like it is doing with CT. Cybertruck is not an EM vanity project. 1.5 million pre-orders is not a cult.

Tesla technology lead is so far advanced. It is advanced beyond automotive, computer, AI and manufacturing industries measured in Teslas, measured in years and to be counted by dead ICE companies. Consumer acceptance buy-in on Teslas is already a given not so on just any EV.

Given @Crissa confirmation GigaAUSTIN is 3X factories stacked the supply-demand curve @Diehard matchup mentioned with just existing backlog Tesla have a Giga solution for now that @HaulingAss subscribes will not meet continuing demand not accounting increase in ICE to EV switchover demand in the future.

Giga solutions are not its only solution that its working. Popup is just one scenario to where supply-demand curves diverge could backfill the area under the curve in Teslas unmet supply. Ultimately, it could supply a simpler Tesla, affordably at competitive pricing without the need for more Giga spend. Popup assembly plants in TX, MX and CAN are first order probability feeders stocked by Tesla US Gigafactories. Popups in UK, SA, NA for GigaBerlin satellites. Popups in JPN, TAI, AUS for Shanghai.

Its cheapest to make on-site than ship. Its faster to assemble components than pieces. This is the direction Cybertruck design points.

Transportation is#1 cost. In 3-5yrs, it could be infeasible to ship whole cars by sea.

Construction is #1 time. Greenfield development of Giga acquisition, infrastructure, design and construction sucks 3-5yrs out of a Tesla timeline-to-market. Popup could cut 3yrs out of a new Giga factory scenario.

Labor is #1 resource. Tesla is all American HQ/Factory/Design except its China, Germany,… Giga factories reveals that EV is a big business that Tesla is committed to and at dominating the production of Teslas.

Demand surge Tesla can only respond with a GigaFactory by 2026 in India and 2024 in China. Everywhere else is a siphon on any facility’s production capacity in its Giga markets. Popup serves non-Giga markets, backfills Giga markets and establishes first mover Tesla branding in markets too small for a GigaFactory. SO popup reinforces Tesla economy-of-scale albeit and Tesla commanding brand acceptance through its cost reductions, elimination and still can be cost competitive brand-on-brand. Chinese brands(SAIC,BYD,BAIDU) EU(Stellantis, VW) brands and Tech brands(Apple,Xiaomi,Foxconn).
The idea of pop-up factories, if by that you mean smaller factories, flies in the face of all the advantages Tesla is creating with their Gigafactories. A smaller factory costs more per square foot. That needs to be cost into the products. A smaller factory uses more land per sq. ft. of production. Smaller, more numerous factories requires production engineers to fly to more locations to do smaller jobs. This is less efficient. Smaller factories make less efficient use of on-site security and they all require their own on-site management teams.

Smaller factories will not build much faster than bigger factories because bigger factories have the room to, in essense, build four smaller factories simultaneously. It's cheaper to build them at the same location using one construction contract. Less lawyers required, less contracts. It makes sense to have factories on each continent you do high volume business, it does not make sense to have a bunch of spread out factories in place of one, two or three large factories. Supply chains become more complex and less manageable too. GigaTexas is near a brand new steel mill to supply huge rolls of cold-rolled stainless to the factory. It's a huge steel mill for a reason (volume efficiencies). Smaller more numerous factories would lose the advantage of proximity and volume deliveries.

The other advantages you mention do not exist. The limits to production growth have nothing to do with being able to build factories quickly enough and everything to do with procuring batteries and raw materials. Smaller factories are not going to change that.

Elon is the most important industrialist of the 21st century. He didn't get there by missing the obvious. He knows what he's doing. If smaller factories made good business sense, he would be doing them. It's obvious just looking at the details of what more, smaller factories would entail that they do *not* make good business sense. It's all about cost to produce.
 
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…would turn this idea of pop up factories on it’s side a bit.
A Gigahub with 1000’+ spokes. GigaTX is cornered. GigaBerlin constrained. GigaShanghai’d… But India could, AUS could and North Africa?

At those scales, Tesla is needing Free-trade Zones. India is already heels down with Elon. AUSSIE’s love one-upmanship and have Li to fuel its pitch for a Giga but for shipping. IDK N.A. but Italy would be first to contribute if it stopped migration. Cobalt innovation could change
N.A. fortunes in EV if we stop colonizing and create an economy.

UR right! Once in-country Tesla will be under pressure to leverage its technology for local host benefit. Battery is obvious a keystone pawn going forward. Those are political plays. Tesla has China on its plate which will template Tesla commoditization. AND China has the ONLY rare earths supply not constrained that is in a mass market. Tesla wins entre into China it gets Li and Ni for commoditization. That’s a heavy lift. Tesla needs more leverage to sit at that table.

The SXS market. SXS market opportunity seems on a horizon still emerging. Mass transit EV and Hydrogen transit may steal its sunrise! SXS is stealing trophy truck(TT) democratizing offroad sport. SO SXS is having its Roadster moment. IF SXS certifies street legal(CSL) China‘s craziest car ideas on the planet are doomed as volume consumes crazy.

Delivery market is a grocery shelf “Endo” cap. Tesla doesn’t have surplus to chase a market where 4% margins rule.

FSDaaS will wait for the Qualcomm, Apple and Baidu‘s of the hightech world to show up. Tesla arsenal of modules, simulations and integrations will be a significant challenge to all comers. BUT not before…beta baby! I think PACCAR has aligned as Tesla would but in a equity for robo exchange.
 

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I would turn this idea of pop up factories on it’s side a bit.

Tesla should work with other, smaller OEMs to bundle Tesla battery technology. Small companies like Arcimoto, Aptera, and even Alpha Motors could buy Tesla battery bundles and other manufacturing services for their product lines, then do the product finishing for their own vehicles.

Tesla does really well at *big* things. Let other companies focus on picking up the smaller things.
This is what Zero and Farasis are trying to do. Arcimoto gets their batteries Farasis, Polaris gets their motors from Zero. I think Arcimoto and Aptera get their motors from yet another company.

And this is fine! I love my Mazda, it's not at all reduced for sharing the unibody with Ford. It did things in ways I didn't like about the Ford.

-Crissa
 
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rr6013

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The idea of pop-up factories, if by that you mean smaller factories, flies in the face of all the advantages Tesla is creating with their Gigafactories. <Snip>Smaller more numerous factories would lose the advantage of proximity and volume deliveries.
<SNIP>
The other advantages you mention do not exist. The limits to production growth have nothing to do with being able to build factories quickly enough and everything to do with procuring batteries and raw materials. Smaller factories are not going to change that.
<SNIP>
Elon is the most important industrialist of the 21st century. He didn't get there by missing the obvious. He knows what he's doing. If smaller factories made good business sense, he would be doing them. It's obvious just looking at the details of what more, smaller factories would entail that they do *not* make good business sense. It's all about cost to produce.
ElonMusk has eclipsed SteveJobs as the most innovative technologist to put a dent in the universe. Were SteveJobs claim to fame wholly based on “cost to produce” the iPhone would not exist, the mouse added cost to a PC and WYSIWYG would not have entailed the CPU heavy engineering that is todays SoC chip. This set of facts all flew in the face of IBM industrialists of the world, WallSt and even Software monopolist Microsoft. Let that be warning about “Golden Touch”, “Monopoly” and the power of paradigm shifts.

Cybertruck is an absolute paradigm shift. Its a shift in form factor, structural design, rolling platform, manufacturing and network effects. To ascribe advantages do not exist in the face of raw material constraints is a half-truth masquerading as an empty assertion. Yes, first principles, petroleum must be displaced by a non-polluting energy source. What is Elon’s first instinct?
Tesla Cybertruck Tesla popup factories to speed Cybertruck to market F2769A65-325C-43D9-AE17-039016443D03

Li is not the constraint, anode is not the constraint, cathode is and the design is not amenable to mass production. He’s halving the cost in 18mos. to eliminate 50% CO2 emissions in cars and trucks by 2050.
Tesla Cybertruck Tesla popup factories to speed Cybertruck to market AB5B4367-EB38-475E-B213-E259375FA651

That is not an Industrialist, Elon is a technologist democratizing rather than hoarding. He’s not a monopolist creating barrier to entry and has no golden touch ego invested as the world’s GOAT of 21st Century.

Why are smaller factories, simpler Teslas and faster time-to-market important? Only three mass market automobile markets exist(China,EU,USA). What about the 3rd world? Tesla going to shove a GigaFactory down India’s gullet? Africa? Latin America? These are countries that have only a few percentage of buyers able to pay freight for Teslas produced in the 1st world. They don’t exist?

Tesla have to play small ball in small markets as TOY have learned and VW. Yes you point out it is slower, more inefficient but its cheaper labor, cheap building and less investment in ground costs factor. Importantly, those costs are normative to the local economy not Tesla 1st world GigaFactory.

Can popup provide value that enables those small plants to offset those inefficiencies, higher costs and time burdens? Export to 1st world economies is useful to Tesla and the arbitrage between the two worlds is not zero.

At the end of the day, were ElonMusk just a industrialist Cybertruck would be a version of the IBM PC Jr., software-driven by Microsoft Windows and WallSt would have Pres. Biden crowing how damn lucky America is to have Tesla union made cars.
 

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Has anyone seen the movie "Idiocracy"?

Highly recommended!
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