Tesla reports record deliveries!

[YDR37]

I believe the CT is number 2 behind the F150L for 2025. The F150L has beat the CT (estimated) each of the first 3 quarters, but not by a lot. Ford reported they sold over 10,000 F150L in Q3.

Tesla doesn't report exact numbers for Cybertruck sales, they "bundle" the CT numbers with the Model S and Model X. So we have to rely on estimates from other parties. Cox Automotive is the most common source.

For the 2024 calendar year, Cox had the CT as the top-selling EV pickup, ahead of the Lightning by 38,965 to 33,510.

But for the first half of 2025, Cox had the Lightning ahead, by 13,029 to 10,712. Ford has already reported 3Q 2025 Lightning sales, at 10,005. We should get an estimate for Cybertruck sales from Cox in a few weeks.

But we already know that Tesla's sales of "other models" spiked by 53% in 3Q 2025, relative to 2Q 2025. And the Cox estimate for CT sales in 2Q 2025 was 4,306. So let's bump that up by 53%, and we can estimate 3Q 2025 CT sales of somewhere around 6,000 to 7,000.

So it seems like the Lightning is probably going to remain ahead. In fact, Ford is already claiming victory:

F-150 Lightning delivered a third quarter record 10,005 pickups (+39.7%), continuing as America’s best-selling electric pickup.

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[YDR37]

So it seems like the Lightning is probably going to remain ahead.

Also, keep an eye on GM. For 3Q 2025, GM reported sales of 3,940 Chevrolet Silverado EVs and 3,374 GMC Sierra EVs. The Silverado EV and Sierra EV are basically the same truck, just with different trim and dealer networks. Put them together and the total is 7,314, which is probably the same ballpark as the Cybertruck sales number, maybe ahead.

GM also sold 5,246 Hummer EVs, which come in both SUV and pickup configurations. GM doesn't break down the numbers, but it's commonly assumed that about 1/3 of the total is pickups, which would add another 1,749 EV pickups to GM's total.

 

[YDR37]

So as someone waiting to order - what are the odds new incentives for the cybertruck get introduced as Q4 progresses?

Just wondering if the 2.49%/60 months currently offered is the best we'll get, or if we'll see the return of 0% or even free supercharging offers.

It's always impossible to predict, as even Tesla doesn't decide what pricing changes they make until right before they actually make them.

Agree that Tesla is unpredictable. One possible clue is that the 3Q 2025 production of "other models" was unusually low, as noted above. In fact, it appears to be lowest quarterly production rate of "other models" since 2021.

The implication is that Tesla expects the sales of "other models" (S+X+CT) to be slow in 4Q 2025. So that might increase the chances for some incentives. In general, incentives are more likely to appear as the end of the quarter approaches, and this is especially true in 4Q, which also marks the end of the calendar year.

 

[cybertruck612]

Agree that Tesla is unpredictable. One possible clue is that the 3Q 2025 production of "other models" was unusually low, as noted above. In fact, it appears to be lowest quarterly production rate of "other models" since 2021.

The implication is that Tesla expects the sales of "other models" (S+X+CT) to be slow in 4Q 2025. So that might increase the chances for some incentives. In general, incentives are more likely to appear as the end of the quarter approaches, and this is especially true in 4Q, which also marks the end of the calendar year.

Sounds promising for better incentives then honestly. Possibly the Luxe package for the normal AWD cybertruck while keeping the financing incentives? That would be helpful for sales I think.

 

[AverageJoe]

Sounds promising for better incentives then honestly. Possibly the Luxe package for the normal AWD cybertruck while keeping the financing incentives? That would be helpful for sales I think.

That would get me to trade the MYP

 

[Sjohnson20]

if Ford did 10k Lightnings then I would think the Cybertruck did around 7-8k. GM did ok but still weak. The truck sales are still too low.

 

[YDR37]

That means the lines are all operating at less than 50% capacity.

Factory utilization is not a strong point for Tesla right now.

According to Tesla, annual production capacity is 100,000 units per year for the S/X in Fremont, and >125,000 units per year for the CT in Austin. That's >225,000 units per year total. Divide by four to get >56,250 units per quarter.

But in 3Q 2025, Tesla only produced 11,624 S/X/CT combined. If capacity is 56,250 units per quarter, that's only about 20% utilization.

And that's a maximum number -- the real utilization rate could be lower. Tesla says that CT production capacity is ">125,000" units per year, but the ">" symbol indicates that the real number is higher. It's suspected that Tesla actually has the capacity to build 200,000 to 250,000 CTs per year. They will most likely sell 20,000 to 25,000 CTs in 2025.

 

[TeslaKen]

Are we only reporting sales of Cybertrucks on this planet or are we including Mars too? I'm pretty sure I saw a lot of Cybertrucks parked next to that new pyramid on Mars and as we all know, only Cybertrucks are Mars rated!

 

[jimbobb23]

I love it and love the look. But for Telsa future probably needs to be made more normal looking to compete. And needs more range for towing.

 

[Fugue]

I love it and love the look. But for Telsa future probably needs to be made more normal looking to compete. And needs more range for towing.

To me, the Cybertruck looks normal and everything else looks too bulbous.

Yuck.

 

[HaulingAss]

To me, the Cybertruck looks normal and everything else looks too bulbous.

Yuck.

Yeah, but legacy auto know how to appeal to those who feel inadequate in the "man department", LOL!

Every year they just get more ridiculous looking, like they're trying to prove something that's impossible for a truck to prove anyway. I bought my last legacy truck in 2009 (and picked the one I found the least offensive looking), but they have only become more ridiculous looking.

 

[tingmo13]

and it's just a Car Company

 

[hemiarch]

So why does TSLA drop 5% the day this data is published? I’ve been doing this a long time so it never really surprises me any more that it doesn’t react as expected but wtf?
I mean the tax credit loss has been baked in for a while. Everyone knew about it.
Just do not get it.
Meh…as per usual, buying opportunity

 

[CyberGus]

So why does TSLA drop 5% the day this data is published? I’ve been doing this a long time so it never really surprises me any more that it doesn’t react as expected but wtf?

Buy on rumor
Sell on news

 

[Travis64]

They better lower the price or 4th qt will be the lowest

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