The Dreaded 70 Day Club

[jasper7821]

What number is considered "limited edition"? 1k? 5k? 10k? All of 2024 production?

The number is very subjective. To my mind limiting FS trucks to 1k units is a limited edition. Anything over that loses exclusivity.

I always felt that the FS should have come with a engraved badge in the cabin telling the owner what number Foundation Series truck they own.

That would have been pretty cool. My thought is if they would’ve known the exact number of FS, maybe they would have done that.
My motorcycle even has a limited edition number.

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[fluffytheclown]

From what I understood it was how many Foundation series were to be built (1000). I assume now that was a made up number.

 

[cgladue]

That would have been pretty cool. My thought is if they would’ve known the exact number of FS, maybe they would have done that.
My motorcycle even has a limited edition number.

notice how they dont say 2205 out of 5000 or anything .. the reason is THEY dont even know or want to be limited.

if you buy a supercar for example they know they are making x number and thats it, then each one comes with a number like 100/1000 on the dash

 

[Amuma]

What's up peeps!! New member here

 

[CyberT1]

What's up peeps!! New member here

If you watch Joe T every Day with those fly overs, you would think there would br a lot more with Vin's and Deliveries. I am at 71 days waiting for a vin.

 

[jasper7821]

notice how they dont say 2205 out of 5000 or anything .. the reason is THEY dont even know or want to be limited.

if you buy a supercar for example they know they are making x number and thats it, then each one comes with a number like 100/1000 on the dash

Yes, but at least it says something.

 

[jasper7821]

If you watch Joe T every Day with those fly overs, you would think there would br a lot more with Vin's and Deliveries. I am at 71 days waiting for a vin.

Exactly, it’s double of what it used to be a few months ago. I would think the waiting time would be cut in half.

 

[cgladue]

If you watch Joe T every Day with those fly overs, you would think there would br a lot more with Vin's and Deliveries. I am at 71 days waiting for a vin.

the data we see here is a subset of a subset so whatever we see here times that by at least 10 id say

 

[agordon117]

If you watch Joe T every Day with those fly overs, you would think there would br a lot more with Vin's and Deliveries. I am at 71 days waiting for a vin.

How would we know for sure though? The most I've counted in the outbound lot was 61. We're at ~150 trucks outside of the factory each day. We have no way to know if there are more leaving per day than we see in the outbound, but I suspect at this point what we see is pretty close to what we get...

We also have no clue what percentage of people are reporting here, but the closest thing we have to info is someone claimed their delivery center said 850 trucks were delivered while only 125 were recorded here. So we're at about 1/8th reporting rate max (people on this forum vs all cybertruck buyers).

So if we're close to that 1/8th number, based on trucks shipped per day, we could expect:

Trucks shipped per day	Vins Reported
80	10
70	8.75
60	7.5
50	6.25
40	5
30	3.75
20	2.5

We also don't know when exactly vins are assigned, but we can pretty easily go back over the last couple of weeks (since the number of trucks outside of the factory hit ~150 per day), and look at the reported vins per day from cybertruck.vin

Date:	Vins assigned:	Extrapolated Vins per day	Number in outbound during flyover
1/14/24	1	8
2/1/24	1	8
2/2/24	1	8
2/3/24	0	0
2/4/24	0	0
2/5/24	0	0
2/6/24	0	0
2/7/24	0	0
2/8/24	0	0
2/9/24	1	8
2/10/24	1	8
2/11/24	0	0
2/12/24	1	8
2/13/24	2	16
2/14/24	1	8
2/15/24	2	16
2/16/24	1	8
2/17/24	1	8
2/18/24	3	24
2/19/24	2	16
2/20/24	6	48
2/21/24	6	48
2/22/24	5	40
2/23/24	5	40	46
2/24/24	2	16	42
2/25/24	3	24
2/26/24	4	32	23
2/27/24	6	48	31
2/28/24	5	40	41
2/29/24	3	24	46
3/1/24	3	24	45
3/2/24	3	24
3/3/24	1	8
3/4/24	5	40
3/5/24	4	32
3/6/24	4	32
3/7/24	3	24

This suggests even further that the reporting rate here is less than 1 in 8, based on the 61 in the outbound lot 2 or 3 days ago, however, the data on cybertruck.vin is often delayed. Not due to @cgladue , but because owners don't always immediately report when they got their vin. I had to update my spreadsheet several weeks back because the numbers had changed in the last 3 days.

I'm gonna go back and cross check this data based on flyovers, but in the meantime here's the theory.

EDIT: There may be something to this. The outbound lot is pretty close to my extrapolated vin numbers, until you get to the most recent week. And as I mentioned, the vin assignments are more accurate the further you go back. Up until 2/29, the number of trucks in outbound during the flyover is very close to the previous day vin assignments. So, even granting that this is based on a lot of assumptions, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that the trucks we see in outbound in the morning are pretty close to the number of trucks that actually go out that day.

 

[CyberT1]

How would we know for sure though? The most I've counted in the outbound lot was 61. We're at ~150 trucks outside of the factory each day. We have no way to know if there are more leaving per day than we see in the outbound, but I suspect at this point what we see is pretty close to what we get...

We also have no clue what percentage of people are reporting here, but the closest thing we have to info is someone claimed their delivery center said 850 trucks were delivered while only 125 were recorded here. So we're at about 1/8th reporting rate max (people on this forum vs all cybertruck buyers).

So if we're close to that 1/8th number, based on trucks shipped per day, we could expect:

Trucks shipped per day	Vins Reported
80	10
70	8.75
60	7.5
50	6.25
40	5
30	3.75
20	2.5

We also don't know when exactly vins are assigned, but we can pretty easily go back over the last couple of weeks (since the number of trucks outside of the factory hit ~150 per day), and look at the reported vins per day from cybertruck.vin

Date:	Vins assigned:	Extrapolated Vins per day	Number in outbound during flyover
1/14/24	1	8
2/1/24	1	8
2/2/24	1	8
2/3/24	0	0
2/4/24	0	0
2/5/24	0	0
2/6/24	0	0
2/7/24	0	0
2/8/24	0	0
2/9/24	1	8
2/10/24	1	8
2/11/24	0	0
2/12/24	1	8
2/13/24	2	16
2/14/24	1	8
2/15/24	2	16
2/16/24	1	8
2/17/24	1	8
2/18/24	3	24
2/19/24	2	16
2/20/24	6	48
2/21/24	6	48
2/22/24	5	40
2/23/24	5	40	46
2/24/24	2	16	42
2/25/24	3	24
2/26/24	4	32	23
2/27/24	6	48	31
2/28/24	5	40	41
2/29/24	3	24	46
3/1/24	3	24	45
3/2/24	3	24
3/3/24	1	8
3/4/24	5	40
3/5/24	4	32
3/6/24	4	32
3/7/24	3	24

This suggests even further that the reporting rate here is less than 1 in 8, based on the 61 in the outbound lot 2 or 3 days ago, however, the data on cybertruck.vin is often delayed. Not due to @cgladue , but because owners don't always immediately report when they got their vin. I had to update my spreadsheet several weeks back because the numbers had changed in the last 3 days.

I'm gonna go back and cross check this data based on flyovers, but in the meantime here's the theory.

EDIT: There may be something to this. The outbound lot is pretty close to my extrapolated vin numbers, until you get to the most recent week. And as I mentioned, the vin assignments are more accurate the further you go back. Up until 2/29, the number of trucks in outbound during the flyover is very close to the previous day vin assignments. So, even granting that this is based on a lot of assumptions, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that the trucks we see in outbound in the morning are pretty close to the number of trucks that actually go out that day.

Excellent explanation Thank You. For us in the East I think the wait will be long.

 

[CyberT1]

How would we know for sure though? The most I've counted in the outbound lot was 61. We're at ~150 trucks outside of the factory each day. We have no way to know if there are more leaving per day than we see in the outbound, but I suspect at this point what we see is pretty close to what we get...

We also have no clue what percentage of people are reporting here, but the closest thing we have to info is someone claimed their delivery center said 850 trucks were delivered while only 125 were recorded here. So we're at about 1/8th reporting rate max (people on this forum vs all cybertruck buyers).

So if we're close to that 1/8th number, based on trucks shipped per day, we could expect:

Trucks shipped per day	Vins Reported
80	10
70	8.75
60	7.5
50	6.25
40	5
30	3.75
20	2.5

We also don't know when exactly vins are assigned, but we can pretty easily go back over the last couple of weeks (since the number of trucks outside of the factory hit ~150 per day), and look at the reported vins per day from cybertruck.vin

Date:	Vins assigned:	Extrapolated Vins per day	Number in outbound during flyover
1/14/24	1	8
2/1/24	1	8
2/2/24	1	8
2/3/24	0	0
2/4/24	0	0
2/5/24	0	0
2/6/24	0	0
2/7/24	0	0
2/8/24	0	0
2/9/24	1	8
2/10/24	1	8
2/11/24	0	0
2/12/24	1	8
2/13/24	2	16
2/14/24	1	8
2/15/24	2	16
2/16/24	1	8
2/17/24	1	8
2/18/24	3	24
2/19/24	2	16
2/20/24	6	48
2/21/24	6	48
2/22/24	5	40
2/23/24	5	40	46
2/24/24	2	16	42
2/25/24	3	24
2/26/24	4	32	23
2/27/24	6	48	31
2/28/24	5	40	41
2/29/24	3	24	46
3/1/24	3	24	45
3/2/24	3	24
3/3/24	1	8
3/4/24	5	40
3/5/24	4	32
3/6/24	4	32
3/7/24	3	24

This suggests even further that the reporting rate here is less than 1 in 8, based on the 61 in the outbound lot 2 or 3 days ago, however, the data on cybertruck.vin is often delayed. Not due to @cgladue , but because owners don't always immediately report when they got their vin. I had to update my spreadsheet several weeks back because the numbers had changed in the last 3 days.

I'm gonna go back and cross check this data based on flyovers, but in the meantime here's the theory.

EDIT: There may be something to this. The outbound lot is pretty close to my extrapolated vin numbers, until you get to the most recent week. And as I mentioned, the vin assignments are more accurate the further you go back. Up until 2/29, the number of trucks in outbound during the flyover is very close to the previous day vin assignments. So, even granting that this is based on a lot of assumptions, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that the trucks we see in outbound in the morning are pretty close to the number of trucks that actually go out that day.

so that's about 688?

 

[CyberT1]

How would we know for sure though? The most I've counted in the outbound lot was 61. We're at ~150 trucks outside of the factory each day. We have no way to know if there are more leaving per day than we see in the outbound, but I suspect at this point what we see is pretty close to what we get...

We also have no clue what percentage of people are reporting here, but the closest thing we have to info is someone claimed their delivery center said 850 trucks were delivered while only 125 were recorded here. So we're at about 1/8th reporting rate max (people on this forum vs all cybertruck buyers).

So if we're close to that 1/8th number, based on trucks shipped per day, we could expect:

Trucks shipped per day	Vins Reported
80	10
70	8.75
60	7.5
50	6.25
40	5
30	3.75
20	2.5

We also don't know when exactly vins are assigned, but we can pretty easily go back over the last couple of weeks (since the number of trucks outside of the factory hit ~150 per day), and look at the reported vins per day from cybertruck.vin

Date:	Vins assigned:	Extrapolated Vins per day	Number in outbound during flyover
1/14/24	1	8
2/1/24	1	8
2/2/24	1	8
2/3/24	0	0
2/4/24	0	0
2/5/24	0	0
2/6/24	0	0
2/7/24	0	0
2/8/24	0	0
2/9/24	1	8
2/10/24	1	8
2/11/24	0	0
2/12/24	1	8
2/13/24	2	16
2/14/24	1	8
2/15/24	2	16
2/16/24	1	8
2/17/24	1	8
2/18/24	3	24
2/19/24	2	16
2/20/24	6	48
2/21/24	6	48
2/22/24	5	40
2/23/24	5	40	46
2/24/24	2	16	42
2/25/24	3	24
2/26/24	4	32	23
2/27/24	6	48	31
2/28/24	5	40	41
2/29/24	3	24	46
3/1/24	3	24	45
3/2/24	3	24
3/3/24	1	8
3/4/24	5	40
3/5/24	4	32
3/6/24	4	32
3/7/24	3	24

This suggests even further that the reporting rate here is less than 1 in 8, based on the 61 in the outbound lot 2 or 3 days ago, however, the data on cybertruck.vin is often delayed. Not due to @cgladue , but because owners don't always immediately report when they got their vin. I had to update my spreadsheet several weeks back because the numbers had changed in the last 3 days.

I'm gonna go back and cross check this data based on flyovers, but in the meantime here's the theory.

EDIT: There may be something to this. The outbound lot is pretty close to my extrapolated vin numbers, until you get to the most recent week. And as I mentioned, the vin assignments are more accurate the further you go back. Up until 2/29, the number of trucks in outbound during the flyover is very close to the previous day vin assignments. So, even granting that this is based on a lot of assumptions, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that the trucks we see in outbound in the morning are pretty close to the number of trucks that actually go out that day.

So here is a great example of what's happing. This is a post from Dirty Tesla on X
I did everything I could, including delaying our vacation, to get this Cybertruck, but every day the eta gets pushed back more. It was originally getting here on March 3rd, now March 12th, but every day the estimate moves back another day so who knows. It seems Tesla has done everything they can and it's more an issue with the transport company, but I have limited info from the official communication so this is a lot of guessing on my part. To be fair, it'll probably still get here within the 45 days "accelerated delivery" window (by March 31st). But it's an extra kick in the teeth to see deliveries to others that didn't have a reservation or even use accelerated delivery. Again, no shade to those people, I want everyone to get their trucks. But some improvements in shipping logistics would be great. It shouldn't take a month to get a vehicle from Texas to Michigan (if I'm going off of vin assigned date).

 

[agordon117]

so that's about 688?

I didn't do a total because I'm not operating on all of the data, and there was some delay between when the vin tracker thread became defunct, and when @cgladue was making a push to compile vin assignment dates. Not many of the owners actually hang around for long after the trucks came.

I believe the accelerated delivery crap is represented in the data I've assembled here too. But we won't really know until a week or so has gone by. Like I mentioned, there is some delay between when vins are assigned and when the last one assigned on that day is reported.

 

[cgladue]

i have been posting in facebook groups, reddit, twitter, and sending the URL to "news" outlets perhaps they want to do a story and get it out there. but i have already seen an uptick int he people coming here to report some orders. i even added instructions on my site to come here and post int he map thread which a dozen or so have done

 

[CyberT1]

I didn't do a total because I'm not operating on all of the data, and there was some delay between when the vin tracker thread became defunct, and when @cgladue was making a push to compile vin assignment dates. Not many of the owners actually hang around for long after the trucks came.

I believe the accelerated delivery crap is represented in the data I've assembled here too. But we won't really know until a week or so has gone by. Like I mentioned, there is some delay between when vins are assigned and when the last one assigned on that day is reported.

The key words are" accelerated delivery crap. and I agree

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