CyberDon

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Well, since the Cybertruck is a favorite of Elon's, I can only hope that during this time he will make up for it with some incredible upgrades. Hopefully the HW 4.0 self-driving chip will be included. I hope that he makes this truck even more awesome than it already is.
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Gordon E Peterson II

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??

They built 2 factories in less than 18 months? They might be a few weeks behind schedule but that's a pretty aggressive timeline for building a pair of factories which will be producing half a million vehicles a year each.

I get the frustration over the Cybertruck timeline, but Giga Berlin is likely to be huge and it is definitely not something they rushed out the door without thinking it through.
I will actually be surprised, given its huge size, if Gigafactory Texas doesn't end up producing something like a million vehicles a year all by itself... once its production is fully ramped-up.
 

Gordon E Peterson II

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Don't know if its the 8k Giga or not, but they just rolled in with a couple of massive crates from IDRA yesterday and the day before. They are pouring new foundations for a new Gigapress right now.

Maybe it's another 6k press? I thought they had all of the 6k presses in place.
It will probably depend on where the foundation is being prepared... if it's on the west side of the casting area, it's presumably another 6,000 ton press. If it's on the east side... then it could actually be the first 8,000 ton press.
 

Gordon E Peterson II

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I also have to wonder if the additional delay might not make it more likely that the Cybertruck will also have the Tesla-patented laser windshield wiper(s)? I expect at least a few more surprise announcements...
 


CyberT

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I get your point about the gigapress not needing to be around before CT but in 2019 or during development of the prototype, they should have known they needed it and placed the order. They just placed the other a few months ago. Granted, I don't know if IDRA already started engineering the machine or if they start after the order is placed. Thats where I take issue on things happening later when it should have been done before hand .
You may be right about Tesla knowing that they would need an 8k ton press while building the prototype in 2019 or maybe initial engineering showed that the 6k ton press would work but further into development they realized 6k would not be enough? Or maybe IDRA informed Tesla that major engineering would be needed to develop the 8k ton press and it was only after IDRA delivered on proof of concept that Tesla then placed the order for the 8k ton press in 3/2021?

The point is that you, I, or anyone else outside of the CyberTuck development team do not know and therefore can only speculate but I would like to believe that there are smarter people than you and I working on the problem and that the CT will come out and we will love the truck and life will be beautiful again
 

ÆCIII

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The Texas Gigafactory alone, is a monumental undertaking on which they have progressed extremely well so far. The site preparation and land excavation requirements were extensive even before footings and steel began to be erected, so actually they've still been doing the actual building of the factory on site for less than a year - and still have managed impressive progress.

Nothing this huge or enormous would have ever come instantly - for the challenges are that it's not only one of the largest buildings, but also the huge presses, casting machines, and systems that have to be installed with the factory basically being built 'around' them.

I don't understand the level of impatient expectations that I sometimes see here - as apparently some people don't have an analytical grasp of the detailed challenges and substance that goes into a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility like this. Elon has emphasized over and over that a refined manufacturing system for a good product, is over a thousand (1000) times harder than just building a single prototype sample.

Being somewhat familiar with Tesla's innovative technology and their keen applications of it, I'm sometimes surprised we see production phases as soon as we do. In any case, IMO the Cybertruck will still be far advanced and well worth the wait, even if volume production is delayed to 2024. I'm fairly certain when Tesla does get delayed, they don't just sit on their hands, but instead uses such time to integrate even more refinements to features, quality methods and production processes.

For some of us, one advantage of a delay also means the Cybertruck should be easier financially to purchase or pay for, with more additional time to prepare for delivery day. This dose of reality information, could also keep Tesla stock shares temporarily more affordable if someone wanted to take advantage of that (but no financial predictions or advice are being implied here).

I never was one of those who actually expected Cybertruck production to begin this year or even early next year.

-ÆCIII
 

Jamessmooth007

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With our many out of control wildfires in California, climate disruption is scarier than ever now.
Fires wouldn't be so bad if California started cleaning up their forests. Lots of unnecessary fuel.

And the 8,000 ton Gigapress (for the rear component of the Cybertruck) isn't installed yet (and they don't even have the foundation prepared for it in Gigafactory Texas, yet). And likewise, no signs of its furnace yet, either.... and hopefully, they'll have at least two of the 8,000 ton Gigapresses.
Yup. I was really hoping for summer 2022, but taking this into account, and Elons comment that production will be difficult because of all the new technology (and 4680's) I'm going to safely assume 2024. We will probably see some on the road in 2023.
All in all, I'm STOKED that I ordered a Y last month while I wait. It may be a looooong wait.
 

John K

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I wonder what the value of a 2023 dual motor with FSD be in the spring of 2023. No matter what happens between now and then, my CT reservation will still be mine, and the truck that follows may still be worth the wait, one way or another. Let the bidding begin.?
Mine is for sale. 50 million.
 

Diehard

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This is all part of the deal with preorders. You either have the stomach for it or you don’t. Tesla has the same goal as we do. To get a good product out the door as soon as possible. There is no guarantee when or if they ever will. I don’t consider the time I spent on the forum a time lost. And if I never get a CT, I don’t consider it end of the world. Life is like a chess game at any point you have to make the best move based on the info available and once the circumstances change reevaluate and move again. Those that always find someone or something to be upset about, end up being upset all the time.

Stay cool.
 
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DarinCT

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@Dids 8 pages and I didn't see any comment from you. I took the under on your prediction. If you scratch out 2021, and put 2022, I'll double down.
 

Ogre

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People seem to think Tesla is playing a shell game here. If you want a safe known product with a predictable delivery time, this isn't it. The Cybertruck is:
  • Built using a unique body style with new manufacturing techniques
  • Atop an unproven structural battery
  • Filled with a next generation/ new form factor battery made with new production methods
  • With die cast front and rear assemblies bigger than any previously manufactured at scale.
Tesla is essentially beta-testing a bunch of new technologies in one product. What is causing the delay is literally why we are interested in the product.

If they were building a predictable truck on a proven platform, it would be more likely to be on time... but far less interesting.
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