Crissa

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Well, it takes money to pay for firefighters to go out and do controlled burns.

We don't usually have the budget.

Last year, our (California) firefighters were exhausted by the fire season, and weren't able to do as much as they did the year before.

And it's involved in Cybertrucks because climate adaption is why we need the trucks. We need trucks that no longer contribute to global warming, and we can use come flood or fire.

-Crissa
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SighBurrTruck

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I bought Model Y one year ago this month. I had already reserved a CT. I was worried I wouldn't get much use out of the MY before trading for CT. Now I am worried about wearing out the Y, before seeing the CT
 

MEDICALJMP

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SOURCE Sawyer Merritt on twitter:

The Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2022. "Production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023". This is per a company wide conference call with employees.

[Admin addendum: Elon did add this about the Cybertruck: "It will be a special project. Like a glitch in the Matrix. Like if Neo had a car."]









So there you have it folks. Volume production will begin in 2023. If you are 100,000 and above for your place in line, start thinking 2024, or later, the further down the list your spot is. :cry::cry:

No surprised. My prediction from May/June 2020 on here was pretty close to that. For me it is less disappointing than confirmation and savings time.
 
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Neo

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SOURCE Sawyer Merritt on twitter:

The Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2022. "Production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023". This is per a company wide conference call with employees.

[Admin addendum: Elon did add this about the Cybertruck: "It will be a special project. Like a glitch in the Matrix. Like if Neo had a car."]









So there you have it folks. Volume production will begin in 2023. If you are 100,000 and above for your place in line, start thinking 2024, or later, the further down the list your spot is. :cry::cry:
I do have a car, it’s a Porsche Cayenne Turbo, until Elon delivers my Tri-Motor Cybertruck…
 
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chalupacabre

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SOURCE Sawyer Merritt on twitter:

The Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2022. "Production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023". This is per a company wide conference call with employees.

[Admin addendum: Elon did add this about the Cybertruck: "It will be a special project. Like a glitch in the Matrix. Like if Neo had a car."]









So there you have it folks. Volume production will begin in 2023. If you are 100,000 and above for your place in line, start thinking 2024, or later, the further down the list your spot is. :cry::cry:

I'm still in! Wife&Me still rockin' our 19M3/LR/DM/FSD. We'll get to watch all the legacy OEM manufacturer EV failures. Like the Bolt/Kona fireballs, watch all these shooting stars flame up. I'm hoping the EV producers like Rivian and Lucid have better luck, but they'll have their own teething problems, too. I'm hoping for a LiFePh battery option, I'd trade more mileage for less cargo capacity. Either way, by the time the chip shortage is over, the 4680 will be cranking, too!
I got a +2 year old Tesla worth more than $10k than I originally paid, so I'm still in!
 


Jelloiron

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Well, it takes money to pay for firefighters to go out and do controlled burns.

We don't usually have the budget.

Last year, our (California) firefighters were exhausted by the fire season, and weren't able to do as much as they did the year before.

And it's involved in Cybertrucks because climate adaption is why we need the trucks. We need trucks that no longer contribute to global warming, and we can use come flood or fire.

-Crissa
I'm sorry but this line of thinking makes no sense. What does the forrest fires have to do with global warming if you're saying they need to clean out dead debris to help prevent them. In that sense, how does it relate to the CT?

Back on topic now, driving my new F150 home made me really want my CT that much faster. Auto pilot and one pedal driving has completely spoiled me. I'm also not looking forward to going to the gas station for the first time in almost a year. My work installed Tesla chargers, I've only paid to charge my car about 8 or 9 times across the year and 20,000 miles I've put on it. That being said, I hope it's better insulated than the M3 is, I forgot just how quiet the F150 is going down the road (as long as your foot isn't into it).
 

Jhodgesatmb

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Well, it takes money to pay for firefighters to go out and do controlled burns.

We don't usually have the budget.

Last year, our (California) firefighters were exhausted by the fire season, and weren't able to do as much as they did the year before.

And it's involved in Cybertrucks because climate adaption is why we need the trucks. We need trucks that no longer contribute to global warming, and we can use come flood or fire.

-Crissa
We are on the same side friend. It would be impossible to clear the forests of California. The first step in reversing the effects of climate change is to stop arguing about whether global warming is happening - get everyone on board to solve the problem. It isn’t a Republican/Democrat problem; it’s a world problem.
 

Ogre

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Lots of folks have opinions about California forests. Few people have walked them and have any real concept of what's going on there.

Clearing out underbrush isn't going to solve the damage the drought and the bark beetles have caused. There are huge swaths of dead trees 100 yards wide and a quarter mile long up in the Sierra. Last time I was in the Sierra, there were crews clearing the dead trees as fast as they possibly could. The national forest doesn't have the budget or the manpower to clear 10s of millions of dead trees. This wasn't a problem in a few areas, but spread across hundreds of miles.

When I was up there weekly 10 years ago they were trying to use controlled burns and logging to clear things out, but the controlled burns quickly became uncontrolled even back then.

And the dead trees are just a symptom of the underlying problem which is the heat and the drought. There is no forest management technique on the planet that can fix millions of acres of trees which are dying of thirst. Particularly not when the farmers in the state control most of the water resources (I'm not arguing whether they should or shouldn't.. just the fact that they do control it).

What is really scary is I'm starting to see the same thing up here in Oregon. It's like California was 10 years ago.
 

Crissa

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I'm sorry but this line of thinking makes no sense. What does the forrest fires have to do with global warming if you're saying they need to clean out dead debris to help prevent them. In that sense, how does it relate to the CT?
I'm sorry reality is more complicated. Things have more than one cause, and just because it has a cause, doesn't mean it doesn't have another solution.

The disease is climate change, the medicine is more forest management like controlled burns. But that doesn't cure the disease, it just treats the symptom of forests burning in unseasonable weather.

The Cybertruck both treats the disease - by reducing carbon emissions - and the symptom - by letting us adapt to extreme weather events with a super-durable truck.

Our fire department just got new trucks painted so they don't catch fire when fleeing through the fire front. They've never needed these engines before.


They do now. That's the crew escaping Big Basin after their defense of the park lodges failed curing the CZU fire. They went up CA 236 towards the ridge. That highway is still closed.

-Crissa
 

Geo

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The Gigapress is being installed *right now*. It's likely to be ready by year end, certainly well before end of year 2022 and will probably idle for quite some time. The Giga is not the problem. The design is not the problem.

The hold up is the 4680 battery process. They had the process working at smaller scale, but when they tried to scale up production of the process, everything went sideways. This isn't really something they could have predicted until they started to scale production.

Honestly this is more concerning than late equipment or late designs because it means they might have to go back to the design board on a very fundamental component of the truck.
I think I agree with you, this delay may have more significance.

I understand that the hold up with the 4680 battery may be two fold :
A/ The manufacturing process to make them, problem is significant.
B/ The heat generated in the core of a 46mm diameter cell is much harder to remove !!
(compared to 21mm )

Thermal management of battery is currently problematic and requires significant testing / validating before approval !! Something Tesla is very experienced with and sensitive to.
But you can also check with GM and LG Chem about the Bolt and such issues !

Also I believe there is good chance the Cybertruck will have 800v architecture.
Apart from being technically superior, 800 v + is a commercial imperative for the Semi.
(re Charging approx 800 - 1000 kwh)
While creating the Architecture for the Semi they will likely take the opportunity for CT and perhaps all Tesla's to change. Tesla is the only one on inferior 400 v.

We'll at least know if/when they solve the 4680 battery problem, cos they will appear in the Model Y first, unless they haven't done so by about August 2022, and then it may appear first in the CT, in about Oct 2022 . . . . or later !

P.S. I understand Tesla have invited other Battery suppliers to tackle this 4680 development problem
 


Lord England

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I suspect Rivian was working on a truck before Tesla.

Ford doesn't matter. The quantities they are manufacturing the Lightning in are rounding errors in the scheme of things. It's possible (not likely but definitely possible) Tesla will ship more Cybertruck's in 2022 than Ford. Unless there is another big delay, Tesla will outship everyone in 2023 by a large margin.



Entirely possible, but think about it, who are they losing sales to? If you order a Ford now you are looking at 2024 or maybe 2025 ship date. No clue how long it will take to get a newly ordered Rivian.



That is actually a big part of Tesla's goal as a company.
 

Lord England

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I suspect Rivian was working on a truck before Tesla.

Ford doesn't matter. The quantities they are manufacturing the Lightning in are rounding errors in the scheme of things. It's possible (not likely but definitely possible) Tesla will ship more Cybertruck's in 2022 than Ford. Unless there is another big delay, Tesla will outship everyone in 2023 by a large margin.



Entirely possible, but think about it, who are they losing sales to? If you order a Ford now you are looking at 2024 or maybe 2025 ship date. No clue how long it will take to get a newly ordered Rivian.



That is actually a big part of Tesla's goal as a company.
I suspect Rivian was working on a truck before Tesla.

Ford doesn't matter. The quantities they are manufacturing the Lightning in are rounding errors in the scheme of things. It's possible (not likely but definitely possible) Tesla will ship more Cybertruck's in 2022 than Ford. Unless there is another big delay, Tesla will outship everyone in 2023 by a large margin.



Entirely possible, but think about it, who are they losing sales to? If you order a Ford now you are looking at 2024 or maybe 2025 ship date. No clue how long it will take to get a newly ordered Rivian.



That is actually a big part of Tesla's goal as a company.
 

Cybr on

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Well, since the market is really high for my 2018 Tundra, it looks like I’ll get the 2022 TRD pro tundra. Then trade it in for my CT. By the time it’s ready for me to pick it up, my Tundra will nearly be paid off.
Disheartening News, that’s for sure, but I’m getting one anyway.
Damn! Well, for now I guess it’s
One mo ice
 

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Lots of folks have opinions about California forests. Few people have walked them and have any real concept of what's going on there.

Clearing out underbrush isn't going to solve the damage the drought and the bark beetles have caused. There are huge swaths of dead trees 100 yards wide and a quarter mile long up in the Sierra. Last time I was in the Sierra, there were crews clearing the dead trees as fast as they possibly could. The national forest doesn't have the budget or the manpower to clear 10s of millions of dead trees. This wasn't a problem in a few areas, but spread across hundreds of miles.

When I was up there weekly 10 years ago they were trying to use controlled burns and logging to clear things out, but the controlled burns quickly became uncontrolled even back then.

And the dead trees are just a symptom of the underlying problem which is the heat and the drought. There is no forest management technique on the planet that can fix millions of acres of trees which are dying of thirst. Particularly not when the farmers in the state control most of the water resources (I'm not arguing whether they should or shouldn't.. just the fact that they do control it).

What is really scary is I'm starting to see the same thing up here in Oregon. It's like California was 10 years ago.
Friends live in and around Arnold, CA, elevation 4000-ft on Hwy 4 on the way up to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada mountain range. Over the last 10 years, PG&E (yes the forest burners) have been actively clearing dead pine trees. I believe this was caused by beetles probably looking for fresh, wet wood. Houses and cabins have been required to clear brush and small trees for decades so this has been done. There are also controlled fires done to clear plant species that have encroached the historically wet forests. This is happening all over the CA mountains as drought has changed the entire state. I remember the years when we had normal amounts of rain, snow down to 500-ft elevations, and had to worry about rivers overflowing. This hasn't happened in a couple decades except for abnormal, couple day rains that flood parched dirt. Even though CA has been working on controlling CO-2 emissions they can't do it alone. I believe most states order CA-emission-manufactured vehicles even when they don't require emission testing or only require in in certain areas (Seattle area requires it). Of course there are also states that could care less about clean air. Tesla and the over few EV manufacturers are trying to slow down the warming of the earth but it would be nice if every state joined in.

My CT number is in the 50K range and my retirement income might allow me to buy a CT by the end of 2022 but it might be better in the long term for me to buy the little Tesla 2(name?) instead of forcing my body to handle what I'd use the CT for. I'm closing in on the big 70 and need to figure out if a CT or a smaller vehicle will be my final vehicle. I usually keep my vehicles for over 10 years. We'll see what happens. I can't sell my CT reservation spot or buy it and immediately re-sell it if I understand Tesla's fine print.
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