What’s the odds on stock price effect of Thursday reveal?

[cvalue13]

Doing it in middle of trading day is odd

Almost causes me to think the event won’t have a lot of info

Over on the thread about past delivery events, I went through to see if they’d done one during trading hours before.

They haven’t.

However, the Model 3 rollout was unusual compared to all others in that prior to the delivery event, during trading hours, they did a press release that had tons of detailed stats and info. By the time of the event that evening, they just talked in marketing tongue and showed lots of hero-reel footage of the car.

Otherwsie the big take-away: they have historically given a lot of detail (eg Model 3), almost zero details (eg Semi), but mostly only a little detail (eg Model X). Model Y they … began selling (COVID weirdness).


Which is all to say: head’s on a swivel for a pre-event press conference on Thursday, otherwise who the hell knows how much/little they’ll share during the event (trading hours or not).

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[tmeyer3]

It seems every time Tesla has a positive announcement the stock is negatively affected.

since Elon has prepared us with “we dug our own grave” remark; what’s the likely effect of Thursday?

I’d say down 10 but I’m still an overall optimist and won’t unload positions.

Unless that's what HE WANTS you to think ?

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

I’ll probably straddle it

_S L I D E W A Y S_______________ Minimal change.

 

[C T Rick]

Anytime Elon talks, the stock gets pounded.. when I first bought into Tesla at the start of covid, I remember sitting in an hour car line waiting to be tested at the VA next to Ucla..he spoke up and said that he felt Tesla was overvalued. This was a Friday and the stock got pounded.. That was almost 4 years ago and now look at us..5/1 split and a 3/1 split.. Anything that happens is short term panic or impulse.. What will drive sales is the price and features..Of course once the real public gets it in their hands, will dictate the real demand..

Now as I'm standing in the crowd at Gigaa Texas , I'll be caught up in the hype and not watching the ticker. Just as long as my Ticker keeps on ticking..

Getting ready for the trip and just upgraded to a Tesla rental car for Wednesday- Friday. Who knows, maybe drive home in a CT.

Rick

 

[Trbizwiz]

Doing it in middle of trading day is odd

Almost causes me to think the event won’t have a lot of info

I think it starts int eh middle of the trading day. But it will be like a fair, with lots of little activities. The meat of the show wont come until after hours. IMOP

 

[davelloydbrown]

It will probably drop, because the hype is so unrealistically high.

The stock hasn't really recovered since the Q3 sell off so I think we will see a gradual ramp up until the Q4 sales numbers.

 

[Arctic_White]

I assume you mean down $10/share, but the real question is down from what?

Are you speaking of down $10 from the current price of $236 or the price at Wednesday's close or the price at 11am PST, right before the event begins?

$10 is a really small move for a stock like Tesla, inconsequential, really. It's really impossible to say when and how the stock will react, especially since we don't know whether or not the stock will run up into the event (and how much), or what new information will be revealed. It would amount to gambling, really. I've made millions investing in Tesla and therefore have no interest in taking my chances on something that could easily go either way, that is not how a person accumulates wealth.

I've been actively investing in disruptive companies for decades, but when I say "actively" that might involve zero trades for a slow year, a busy year might involve 10-15 trades. I've done so well playing the long game on disruptive companies I have zero desire to place a gamble, even if the odds might be slightly in my favor. My tax bill thanks me. If you want to become wealthy, you want to avoid short-term capital gains because that represents capital that can no longer continue to compound in value. Same with long-term capital gains too, they just typically are taxed at a lower rate. Non-investors under-estimate the power of compounding and over-estimate the value of immediate profits. The fewer capital gains you pay during the wealth building period of your life, the better it willl go. Much better.

All that said, I've never seen a stock more manupulated by the market makers than TSLA. I would guess we go into the event higher than we are now (manipulators collecting shares to dump) and have some selling pressure during the event in an attempt to reinforce a narrative that the Cybertruck will be a failure. This may or may not be successful in the immediate short-term, but where the share price goes in the next several months has less to do with the Cybertruck and more to do with the overall macro-economic sentiment. If that remains neutral, I don't see the stock spending much time at all below $225. Tesla is a good long-term buy here. It was even better at $105/share. It's a good stock to accumulate as much as you can over time for long-term appreciation, and never sell a single share until the company's various initiatives have either matured or been abandoned.

The power of compounding gains doesn't work nearly as well if one keeps taking profits and paying the capital gains along the way. And if you trade a lot, based upon what you think the next week, or the next several months has in store, that's exactly what you will be doing. It's very hard to reach that point where money doesn't matter if you are always churning your positions. That's why the wealthiest investors in the world are not traders, but buy and hold investors like Warren Buffet. The traders that do well almost all use sophisticated mathematical models (quant trading). Traders who trade events and news and other media driven events tend to struggle to beat the Index funds and most of them underperform the Indexes or go broke.

Wall Street doesn't like me to inform newer investors of these facts because they need lots of fresh blood to maximize their profits. Buy and hold is the way to acquiring so much wealth that you can spend lavishly and still watch your net worth grow, the point where there are 100 things in your life more important than money. Otherwise you will always be wanting more.

You really are a wealth of knowledge. Thank you for yet another amazing post! You called it: most investors can't even beat a plain vanilla index fund. The easiest and surest path to wealth is to buy & hold, control your costs (of investments), stay out of debt, and live within your means.

 

[Rutrow]

I think it starts in the middle of the trading day. But it will be like a fair, with lots of little activities. The meat of the show wont come until after hours. IMOP

If the CFO wants to delay any important information release for ~an hour, Elon being 70 minutes late won't even raise an eyebrow. A 2:00 CST event can be titrated for perfect market timing.

 

[DrDefore]

It is very odd that Tesla scheduled this in the middle of the trading day. That would suggest that they either expect no reaction or a positive reaction. When companies have bad news they schedule after hours so the market has time to digest and they can help control the spin.

The big potential market-moving news would be if they revealed how many reservations they had or if they combined that with revised production forecast for 2024. Oh, that plus they are totally going to reveal the roadster on Thursday. LOL

Reveal yes, roadster no, model 2 yes ?

 

[SSonnentag]

From past history, the stock will drop 20+ on Friday.

 

[John K]

Guaranteed investing advice?

if I buy, stocks drop. If I sell, stocks spike. ?

 

[VR Driving]

it's gonna drop because Tesla won't be able to keep up with demand, so they won't be making as much money as they theoretically could.

 

[Eye of Elon]

The better the news, the bigger the dip, just look at battery day. Also, would go down on bad news too, but I don't think Wall Street knows what they are watching when Tesla has a presentation. I plan to pick up some shares.

 

[charliemagpie]

I assume you mean down $10/share, but the real question is down from what?

Are you speaking of down $10 from the current price of $236 or the price at Wednesday's close or the price at 11am PST, right before the event begins?

$10 is a really small move for a stock like Tesla, inconsequential, really. It's really impossible to say when and how the stock will react, especially since we don't know whether or not the stock will run up into the event (and how much), or what new information will be revealed. It would amount to gambling, really. I've made millions investing in Tesla and therefore have no interest in taking my chances on something that could easily go either way, that is not how a person accumulates wealth.

I've been actively investing in disruptive companies for decades, but when I say "actively" that might involve zero trades for a slow year, a busy year might involve 10-15 trades. I've done so well playing the long game on disruptive companies I have zero desire to place a gamble, even if the odds might be slightly in my favor. My tax bill thanks me. If you want to become wealthy, you want to avoid short-term capital gains because that represents capital that can no longer continue to compound in value. Same with long-term capital gains too, they just typically are taxed at a lower rate. Non-investors under-estimate the power of compounding and over-estimate the value of immediate profits. The fewer capital gains you pay during the wealth building period of your life, the better it willl go. Much better.

All that said, I've never seen a stock more manupulated by the market makers than TSLA. I would guess we go into the event higher than we are now (manipulators collecting shares to dump) and have some selling pressure during the event in an attempt to reinforce a narrative that the Cybertruck will be a failure. This may or may not be successful in the immediate short-term, but where the share price goes in the next several months has less to do with the Cybertruck and more to do with the overall macro-economic sentiment. If that remains neutral, I don't see the stock spending much time at all below $225. Tesla is a good long-term buy here. It was even better at $105/share. It's a good stock to accumulate as much as you can over time for long-term appreciation, and never sell a single share until the company's various initiatives have either matured or been abandoned.

The power of compounding gains doesn't work nearly as well if one keeps taking profits and paying the capital gains along the way. And if you trade a lot, based upon what you think the next week, or the next several months has in store, that's exactly what you will be doing. It's very hard to reach that point where money doesn't matter if you are always churning your positions. That's why the wealthiest investors in the world are not traders, but buy and hold investors like Warren Buffet. The traders that do well almost all use sophisticated mathematical models (quant trading). Traders who trade events and news and other media driven events tend to struggle to beat the Index funds and most of them underperform the Indexes or go broke.

Wall Street doesn't like me to inform newer investors of these facts because they need lots of fresh blood to maximize their profits. Buy and hold is the way to acquiring so much wealth that you can spend lavishly and still watch your net worth grow, the point where there are 100 things in your life more important than money. Otherwise you will always be wanting more.

You called it.

The world lost Charlie Munger today... People should listen to what he had to say about his personal long-term investment strategy.

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