What price point will you cancel your order?

mrbig1225

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Ive been reading these types of posts for years. I expect lots of folks to be disappointed. Tesla prices are based on demand and rate of production. We know EV pickup trucks are in demand, we also know the Cybertruck is literally one of the most demanded vehicles... to the point there are over 1 million preorders. Also keep in mind this is the only truck that has full access to Tesla's super charger network.

This truck will be closer to S/X in price..... at least initially... this is how Tesla will dwindle the preorder numbers or make folks wait even longer for the cheaper model. Tesla will sell everyone of the cybtrucks made even at high cost....especially with a slow ramp...

I also suspect the range wont be 500 miles....again initially. This will be offset by the tech and feature set of the high end model. So many things i can add, but i wont.

Just know the demand and rate of production = price. We know this truck has high demand and a slow ramp.... she wont be cheap... it will be on the upper end of pricing in the EV truck segment.

i hope im wrong... i fear im not.
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Total Cost of Ownership over ~3 years is all that matters to me. I can't tell you that I have a set figure in my head today, as it will depend on my what comparable trucks are to buy and forecasted sell for in a few years, as well as $TSLA share price.

A CyberTruck and Airstream RV are my anticipated combination for my retirement RV rig because they'll likely hold the most value over my 2 year full time RV escapade. Any trim level CT that can get 200 miles towing 9266 lbs. will be what I buy. I couldn't care less about 0-60 times. After touring North America the wife and I plan to live around Europe for a few years so I won't necessarily be keeping either* after the initial jaunt (but who knows?)

So the point of my story is that if I had a reasonable expectation** that I could sell my CT for $150k in 3 years, I'd be willing to pay $180k now. If it looks like $50k is all I'd get back... then ~$85k... $90k maybe?

*the CT and RV I mean, not the wife... but who knows? 🤪
**how can I be sure? I can't, of course, but durable demand is a good indicator
 

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The good news is that Tesla is cutting their prices across the board on their current model in the face of stiff competition, consumer demand and their high inventories.

The bad news is that they have to recover somehow the drop in profit -- and they'll get it on the unit with the high demand.

And you can scream: incoming!
 

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I think Elon gave us some hints about his comments in other statements. First he said the next two models are coming soon, and those will account for 5,000,000 sakes per year. The silhouette looked slot like a refreshed Model y. Maybe produced with a more unboxed design. That’s means higher production rates, at lower costs. I’m the realm of 5,000,000 sales from two models, even 500,000 is relatively small. Tesla currently considers the 70,000 to 80,000 S and x to be pretty small against 1,000,000. Elon also seemed to hint at growing g tired of producing S & X. I think a fully ramped CT relegates X to a very obscure vehicle. A few need the additional passenger seating, but most will opt for CT, because of its lower price. X in particular us really challenging to build, and a lot of its cost comes from that. CT won’t have any of that. Giga casts are easy to build, after things are dialed in. I’m sure they’re having trouble getting the stainless folded just right. But when it’s all sorted out, the folds are simple, and repeatable.
I think CT will be much easier to build when the actual production process is worked out. I would love to see a Munro costanalysis of it, but it doesn’t seem like the parts will be much more costly than an all aluminum S, without the fussy production involving lots of people and robots, and paint. Paint on the outer body is much more expensive than paint on the Chassis.
I think the first 50,000 CTs will be plaid, so that sorting production won’t drain margins. I think those may rival X Plaid in cost. I think eventual CT Plaid should get down near that $80,000. I think by the time dial motor is delivered, it’ll be in the $6x,xxx range. But maybe they will have a lot more options available, rather than going with 3 packages, and a few options.
 

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In my opinion, it will all boil down to what the CT includes. If it is truly hard stainless (so no dents in my doors or hail damage), armor glass (No rock chips or broken glass due to stones or hail), and has a large enough battery for 500 miles + (to use it for site electricity with tools) and possibly the option to purchase a larger battery for even longer range, and lets not forget the compressed air feature (use for tools). I think if this truck has all of these features, I am willing to pay a higher price (Up to $100K). Currently most larger trucks used for work sites are running $80K or more.

I think the bigger concern for Tesla right now is not so much the price of the CT, but with the high interest rates on car loans being average of 6-10%, this will prevent a lot of consumers from purchasing the CT even at a moderate cost between $50K and $80K.

I know I am very low on the waiting list and in the same area of the plant, but I am also worried that I will have to pay top dollar because I will get one of the first Cyber trucks to be sold to the public. I really would prefer Tesla set the price and not change it until most on the list have receive their CT.
 


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Ive been reading these types of posts for years. I expect lots of folks to be disappointed. Tesla prices are based on demand and rate of production. We know EV pickup trucks are in demand, we also know the Cybertruck is literally one of the most demanded vehicles... to the point there are over 1 million preorders. Also keep in mind this is the only truck that has full access to Tesla's super charger network.

This truck will be closer to S/X in price..... at least initially... this is how Tesla will dwindle the preorder numbers or make folks wait even longer for the cheaper model. Tesla will sell everyone of the cybtrucks made even at high cost....especially with a slow ramp...
The pre-order numbers don't mean anything. It's a $100 refundable deposit. If Tesla wants real numbers, make it $1k non-refundable and you'll see the real demand (we'll only see this number at launch). The preorders can only be used to show the demand for the truck at the prices they announced back then. And half of those were not the $70k model. I also see almost no demand for S/X priced Cybertrucks. I can see them rolling it out like the 3 and price it 10-20k higher at launch. But that won't last long, as demand will cave. Even Elon knows this as he stated they plan to produce 250k/year. That number tells you they plan to be, price-range wise, below the S. Plus, there are plenty of Lightning's for $80k+ and you don't have to wait to get one if you're willing to pay. Problem is, very few are.
 

Gojuryu

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Speaking honestly, I looked at a new Toyota Tundra this weekend for $47750. I would compare that to the CT single motor. No frills, no FSD and of course not on the table. There-for, considering the only option is the dual motor (non-FSD) I would bump up no more than $10k with no exceptions. My price prior to taxes and tax credits would then be $57,750 for the dual motor, standard rims and interior, no FSD.
 

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In my opinion, it will all boil down to what the CT includes. If it is truly hard stainless (so no dents in my doors or hail damage), armor glass (No rock chips or broken glass due to stones or hail), and has a large enough battery for 500 miles + (to use it for site electricity with tools) and possibly the option to purchase a larger battery for even longer range, and lets not forget the compressed air feature (use for tools). I think if this truck has all of these features, I am willing to pay a higher price (Up to $100K). Currently most larger trucks used for work sites are running $80K or more.

I think the bigger concern for Tesla right now is not so much the price of the CT, but with the high interest rates on car loans being average of 6-10%, this will prevent a lot of consumers from purchasing the CT even at a moderate cost between $50K and $80K.

I know I am very low on the waiting list and in the same area of the plant, but I am also worried that I will have to pay top dollar because I will get one of the first Cyber trucks to be sold to the public. I really would prefer Tesla set the price and not change it until most on the list have receive their CT.
Forgot to add the new Good Year tires (If really like advertised by Good Year) these will be a great advantage with no air to construction and tire repair issues. Come on Guys/ Gals, these 4 items by themselves is enough to warrant the extra cost. And as for the interest rates, I guess I can always refinance again when interest rates lower.
 

mrbig1225

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The pre-order numbers don't mean anything. It's a $100 refundable deposit. If Tesla wants real numbers, make it $1k non-refundable and you'll see the real demand (we'll only see this number at launch). The preorders can only be used to show the demand for the truck at the prices they announced back then. And half of those were not the $70k model. I also see almost no demand for S/X priced Cybertrucks. I can see them rolling it out like the 3 and price it 10-20k higher at launch. But that won't last long, as demand will cave. Even Elon knows this as he stated they plan to produce 250k/year. That number tells you they plan to be, price-range wise, below the S. Plus, there are plenty of Lightning's for $80k+ and you don't have to wait to get one if you're willing to pay. Problem is, very few are.
Preorders do mean something.... i think of it as a survey. Everyone who takes one might not be honest with their answers, but they took the time to take it which says they are at least interested in providing their opinion. Tesla obviously knows every preorder will not turn into a delivery, they are banking on that. No auto manufacturer wants years of back logs, its hard to predict changes in market conditions that could impact pricing... i mean look at what happened to the original cybertruck price vs. now.

I think folks also need to look at how Tesla handled high demand in the past, price increases.... When they ramped/ competition; prices came down. I hate to say it... but if Tesla maintained 2019 pricing for CT, many people would wait 5+ years to get it after they start producing it...thats unreasonable. Add to the fact they are leaving money on the table.

I think you also answered your own question regarding pricing as well. If Tesla is looking to sell 250k CT per year.... vs. 100k S/X.... this should tell you that the truck will not be 3/Y prices...but closer to S/X. You factor in the utility aspect and the fact the Trucks are money printers for most manufacturers... im not sure you can walk away with the conclusion that it will be 10 to 20k more than 3/Y. That would literally make the price range (if looking at the y) 60k to 75k! No way The average sale price for a Full sized Truck in 2022 was 60k. Factor crazy demand and a bunch of new tech that Tesla doesnt have on any other vehicle (Rear Wheel steering, Armored Glass, Stainless body, new manufacturing processes)...I dont see how you can come to that conclusion.
 


ninja6r

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I think you also answered your own question regarding pricing as well. If Tesla is looking to sell 250k CT per year.... vs. 100k S/X.... this should tell you that the truck will not be 3/Y prices...but closer to S/X. You factor in the utility aspect and the fact the Trucks are money printers for most manufacturers... im not sure you can walk away with the conclusion that it will be 10 to 20k more than 3/Y.
We're both just looking at this from all the possible angels we can, with our own bias. I really wish Tesla would get off their ass and get it out there so we can all stop arguing, lol. To add, I never said $10-20k more than the 3, I said to look at how they priced the 3 at rollout. It was, 20K higher than it eventually settled at roughly 12 months later. It dropped $10k within 2 months of debut. So that would put the highest end cybertruck at $90k to start. And as we all know, that was "production hell" for almost a year. Edit: I also want to add, the 3's looks have not been as polarizing as the trucks. Anecdotally, everyone I've talked to, over half hate the look of the truck. Most of us on here are very much in a bubble, lol.
 

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We're both just looking at this from all the possible angels we can, with our own bias. I really wish Tesla would get off their ass and get it out there so we can all stop arguing, lol. To add, I never said $10-20k more than the 3, I said to look at how they priced the 3 at rollout. It was, 20K higher than it eventually settled at roughly 12 months later. It dropped $10k within 2 months of debut. So that would put the highest end cybertruck at $90k to start. And as we all know, that was "production hell" for almost a year. Edit: I also want to add, the 3's looks have not been as polarizing as the trucks. Anecdotally, everyone I've talked to, over half hate the look of the truck. Most of us on here are very much in a bubble, lol.
Gotcha, agreed and understood. Regarding the look, i have had the same response of the folks in my circle. I think that will change when seen in person, that appears to be the sentiment.
 

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Tesla wants to beat them all, so no I don't think they'll price high. they want CTs out on the road in numbers..... not rare.
This...... price high will make no sense if you want to achieved dominance and disrupt the market on the most selling type of vehicle in the US. Will be highly disappointed if dual motor will go over 60k, The CT is the only thing that's been holding me back to upgrade my current truck
 

mrbig1225

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This...... price high will make no sense if you want to achieved dominance and disrupt the market on the most selling type of vehicle in the US. Will be highly disappointed if dual motor will go over 60k, The CT is the only thing that's been holding me back to upgrade my current truck
Whats the point of having a lower price when they wont be able to deliver the car for years based on demand. They will match or be slightly above the current market segments. Remember Tesla is never the cheapest in the respective segment, they strive to be the best for the money... not the cheapest.
 
 




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