9k Ton IDRA Gigapress For Cybertruck Has ARRIVED IN USA!

[greggertruck]

49 120 in the trimotor sequence..... if that means anything.

If you're willing to settle for something else, that probably costs a bit more; you may have your truck in year one.

If productions starting April/ May as I am guessing - I wouldn't be shocked if there's 20-30k trucks on the road next year.

Probably seriously ambitious.

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[charliemagpie]

The others have milked the bragging rights for coming to market first. But their volumes are so small, there is no business first mover advantage. Just words.

Unfortunately for them, it's doubtful if they make any money at all. What a nightmare. Talk about catch 22.

Once the CT ramps up, they will be happy if they have 30-50% of the market left.

 

[HaulingAss]

The others have milked the bragging rights for coming to market first. But their volumes are so small, there is no business first mover advantage. Just words.

Unfortunately for them, it's doubtful if they make any money at all. What a nightmare. Talk about catch 22.

Once the CT ramps up, they will be happy if they have 30-50% of the market left.

The truck market is so huge, not even Tesla can hope to fill 50% of the demand for many years. Legacy doesn't have to worry about Tesla stealing the market, they need to worry about building the capability to satisfy 30%-50% of the market.

 

[HaulingAss]

Of all the reasons to have a price hike that's probably the worst one to have.

The goal is, and should remain to get as many cars into peoples hands as possible to get ICE of the road.

The price has nothing to do with how many Cybertrucks will make it into peoples hands because it's a certainty that Tesla will sell everyone they make, as soon as they make it. How fast and how high Tesla can ramp production has everything to do with how many Cybertrucks make it into peoples hands.

 

[Ogre]

The truck market is so huge, not even Tesla can hope to fill 50% of the demand for many years. Legacy doesn't have to worry about Tesla stealing the market, they need to worry about building the capability to satisfy 30%-50% of the market.

They very much need to worry about Tesla stealing the market. Or for that matter, whoever can produce these trucks.

Whoever is able to get electric trucks produced at scale is going to run away with the high end of the truck market. Who is going to buy an $80k Denali or a $90k F150 Lariat Lasso when they can get a Cybertruck or even an electric F150 if possible.

Going to be very hard to make any kind of premium on ICE trucks, particularly if the IRA rebates are benefitting the Cybertruck.

 

[HaulingAss]

They very much need to worry about Tesla stealing the market. Or for that matter, whoever can produce these trucks.

Whoever is able to get electric trucks produced at scale is going to run away with the high end of the truck market. Who is going to buy an $80k Denali or a $90k F150 Lariat Lasso when they can get a Cybertruck or even an electric F150 if possible.

Going to be very hard to make any kind of premium on ICE trucks, particularly if the IRA rebates are benefitting the Cybertruck.

There will not be enough Cybertrucks to satisfy demand so people will keep buying ICE trucks until manufacturers can ramp to high volume. Personally, I think GM and Ford will never ramp to truly high volume - they will go bankrupt.

The real reason legacy auto doesn't need to worry about Tesla stealing the market is because there is absolutely NOTHING they can do about it. It's going to happen regardless of what legacy auto does. However, it going to take longer than 4 or 5 years. My momma taught me to never worry about things that are beyond my control!

 

[Ogre]

There will not be enough Cybertrucks to satisfy demand so people will keep buying ICE trucks until manufacturers can ramp to high volume. Personally, I think GM and Ford will never ramp to truly high volume - they will go bankrupt.

The real reason legacy auto doesn't need to worry about Tesla stealing the market is because there is absolutely NOTHING they can do about it. It's going to happen regardless of what legacy auto does. However, it going to take longer than 4 or 5 years. My momma taught me to never worry about things that are beyond my control!

People will keep buying low end trucks.

The high end will be dominated by EVs. Cybertruck and otherwise. It doesn’t take removing 50% of the truck market to hurt GM & Ford badly. Taking away the 20% most profitable models will be massively damaging.

 

[Crissa]

Just because they 'can sell every one' doesn't mean the price doesn't matter. Clearly there's an upper limit to the demand's price sensitivity. Far more Model 3 are sold than Model S. Or Model S than Model S Plaid.

The price still matters. Everyone has a tap out price.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

Value for money plays a huge part.

$15,000 is not a lot, if the difference is chalk and cheese.

Tesla is successful thus far, because it is worth the extra money. Customers fall over themselves to pay $15,000 extra.

The 'right price' is transient.

Our parents had 1 job, 1 car. No mobile phone. No internet, no Pay TV subscriptions.

When things come along which we want.. we find a way. The market has given birth to it. Economic Darwinism.

 

[HaulingAss]

Just because they 'can sell every one' doesn't mean the price doesn't matter. Clearly there's an upper limit to the demand's price sensitivity. Fare more Model 3 are sold than Model S. Or Model S than Model S Plaid.

The price still matters. Everyone has a tap out price.

-Crissa

Please take the quote in context. Obviously, the price does matter to most buyers.

The "price doesn't matter" was said in the context of how many Cybertrucks will get in actual peoples hands. The idea under discussion was that someone with a reservation would get their Cybertruck earlier if the price was high enough to cause a lot of people to cancel their order. But the objection to this idea was that this would slow down adoption of electrification because it would imply less people were buying EV's. However, that ignores the fact that the price is adjusted based on demand. Hence, the release price that Tesla sets doesn't change how many units are sold.

But there is good news for those hoping for a low price upon release even though Tesla, with millions of reservations, could set the initial price high and drop it as they syphon off those willing to pay the most, that's not what will happen. Tesla values value. They want to make a truck that your average everyday American can afford. They understand mass adoption doesn't happen unless they do this. Tesla always leverages future volume sales of a new model to keep introductory prices low. They know the volume that follows will cover the losses on early sales. And they value consistency of pricing, as much as they can in a world that is always changing.

What this all means is that Tesla will, to the best of their ability, set the release price based upon where they think they can leave it for as long as possible. They will still adjust it up or down as needed based upon changes in supply/demand, but they want to pick an initial price that works without having to change it. The reason the initial price doesn't matter to speed of adoption is that Tesla will adjust it, if it's necessary to continue ramping production and selling every one.

The speed of adoption will be determined by how fast Tesla can ramp production, not what the release price is set at.

 

[HaulingAss]

People will keep buying low end trucks.

The high end will be dominated by EVs. Cybertruck and otherwise. It doesn’t take removing 50% of the truck market to hurt GM & Ford badly. Taking away the 20% most profitable models will be massively damaging.

Removing 50% of legacy auto truck sales will be devastating to Ford, GM and Stellantis (Dodge). This is true even if, for example. Ford has ramped the Lightning to the numbers they project. Because they still don't know how to make electric pickups profitable at the volume they have announced.

However, the Cybertruck is likely to hit the entire price range of pickups more evenly than you might expect. That's because people that can afford those $80K (and up) pickups are often not that put off by the cost to fuel them. And they buy them as a status symbol. Most of those kind of buyers will continue to buy gas pickups. It's the midrange pickup market that will be hardest hit, followed by the low end. Because those are the people that care the most about cost to operate.

In 2035 there will be a lot of 8 year old "luxury" pickups in excellent condition that are worth very little. Because they will be very expensive to keep fuelled and maintained while not having any real value as a status symbol. Out with the old, in with the new!

 

[Tinker71]

Please take the quote in context. Obviously, the price does matter to most buyers.

The "price doesn't matter" was said in the context of how many Cybertrucks will get in actual peoples hands. The idea under discussion was that someone with a reservation would get their Cybertruck earlier if the price was high enough to cause a lot of people to cancel their order. But the objection to this idea was that this would slow down adoption of electrification because it would imply less people were buying EV's. However, that ignores the fact that the price is adjusted based on demand. Hence, the release price that Tesla sets doesn't change how many units are sold.

But there is good news for those hoping for a low price upon release even though Tesla, with millions of reservations, could set the initial price high and drop it as they syphon off those willing to pay the most, that's not what will happen. Tesla values value. They want to make a truck that your average everyday American can afford. They understand mass adoption doesn't happen unless they do this. Tesla always leverages future volume sales of a new model to keep introductory prices low. They know the volume that follows will cover the losses on early sales. And they value consistency of pricing, as much as they can in a world that is always changing.

What this all means is that Tesla will, to the best of their ability, set the release price based upon where they think they can leave it for as long as possible. They will still adjust it up or down as needed based upon changes in supply/demand, but they want to pick an initial price that works without having to change it. The reason the initial price doesn't matter to speed of adoption is that Tesla will adjust it, if it's necessary to continue ramping production and selling every one.

The speed of adoption will be determined by how fast Tesla can ramp production, not what the release price is set at.

Well stated. However by releasing a Quad Plaid, Tesla could maximize profit short term and adoption rates long term through affordability. The Plaid sales would pay for the early ramp and take out the scalping concern. The upper crust are willing to pay 50-100% more for a 10% improvement.

The next level down would still be akin to the CT3 at a reasonable price.

 

[greggertruck]

Oooooh. “Arriving sooner than expected” huh?? Q1?! :0 FEBRUARY MAYBE?!

 

[Ogre]

However, the Cybertruck is likely to hit the entire price range of pickups more evenly than you might expect. That's because people that can afford those $80K (and up) pickups are often not that put off by the cost to fuel them. And they buy them as a status symbol. Most of those kind of buyers will continue to buy gas pickups. It's the midrange pickup market that will be hardest hit, followed by the low end. Because those are the people that care the most about cost to operate.

Cybertruck is going to redefine what you get for the money. Nobody is going to want those $80k trucks. Not because of the cost of gas, but because they don’t compete with whatever the base Cybertruck offers. The Cybertruck will likely have a better sound system. Better console (aka infotainment on the other trucks). It’ll have adaptive air suspension and up to 16” clearance. And likely 4 wheel steering. It will accelerate faster, etc etc etc.

I’m sure maybe someone will consider the F150 a better “status symbol” truck than the Cybertruck, but a lot will see the reverse as true. Hell some rednecks take pride in driving a truck that is literally causing their kids brain damage.

Why would you spend $80k on a Denali when your buddy bought a Cybertruck for $10000 less and it has more features and is more comfortable? Suddenly your bragging rights are gone. Maybe the Cybertruck won’t suck away all of the high end buyers, but they will take a huge percentage of them.

That is why the high end truck goes away. And that is why it won’t take 50% market reduction to trash GM & Ford, just putting a world of hurt into their top end clients will have a disproportionate effect on their bottom line.

 

[greggertruck]

Cybertruck is going to redefine what you get for the money. Nobody is going to want those $80k trucks. Not because of the cost of gas, but because they don’t compete with whatever the base Cybertruck offers. The Cybertruck will likely have a better sound system. Better console (aka infotainment on the other trucks). It’ll have adaptive air suspension and up to 16” clearance. And likely 4 wheel steering. It will accelerate faster, etc etc etc.

I’m sure maybe someone will consider the F150 a better “status symbol” truck than the Cybertruck, but a lot will see the reverse as true. Hell some rednecks take pride in driving a truck that is literally causing their kids brain damage.

Why would you spend $80k on a Denali when your buddy bought a Cybertruck for $10000 less and it has more features and is more comfortable? Suddenly your bragging rights are gone. Maybe the Cybertruck won’t suck away all of the high end buyers, but they will take a huge percentage of them.

That is why the high end truck goes away. And that is why it won’t take 50% market reduction to trash GM & Ford, just putting a world of hurt into their top end clients will have a disproportionate effect on their bottom line.

I just wonder how long before gas humpers stop “haha” reacting on Facebook to all things EV, more specifically the Cybertruck. At what point do you realize you’re looking a lot like Steve balmer about the iPhone.

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