How long to 50k Trucks delivered? (Plotted out)

[mfg310]

I’m at 59XX, but since mine is a dual-motor without FSD, I live in Los Angeles, and this would be my first Tesla, I’m more concerned about all the people that Tesla will jump me for highest spec models, closer locations to TX, multiple prior Tesla owners, celebrities and other influencers, etc.

Sponsored

 

[JeffnReno]

I haven't cancelled my reservation but I did decide to add a Model Y to our garage which we picked up Nov. 4. By getting that, I'll likely be pushing off or cancelling any offers by Tesla to confirm my CT reservation. I could predict it was still going to be a year or more away so just couldn't wait since selling our Model 3 to my grandson became a priority with the 2012 Leaf no longer meeting his range needs. It did cost me an extra $20k since we missed the price reduction and the tax credit but we're very happy with the Model Y. Another issue I see on waiting for the CT is a possible charging infrastructure issue if it will be on an 800v system. There has been talk about the possibility since it will be a heavy truck needing large battery packs to meet range expectations. I could be wrong but the current Supercharger system doesn't support that voltage in it's current form and could take a bit more time to modify or build that out to handle thousands of CTs which would be an additional reason to wait. How about L2 charging at home with an 800v BEV. Does current owners of such vehicles with that voltage have any issues with that?

 

[SolarWizard]

Influencers generally don't get cars earlier than their orders were placed, that I know of.

-Crissa

People Elon trusts are first in line after employee validation and I predict people with several orders come after that.

 

[SolarWizard]

L How about L2 charging at home with an 800v BEV. Does current owners of such vehicles with that voltage have any issues with that?

AC home chargers are really just smart receptacles. The charging itself is onboard the vehicle. Ive charged F150s, Hummers, Hyundais, Taycans and Teslas off the same unit without issue.

 

[Crissa]

People Elon trusts are first in line after employee validation and I predict people with several orders come after that.

That is not someone getting the truck, and there's no examples I know of of someone outside the company jumping the queue.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

That is not someone getting the truck, and there's no examples I know of of someone outside the company jumping the queue.

-Crissa

Likely the “influencers” who Musk likes ordered on the first day regardless. I know Munro ordered 5 the first day.

But this is all pointless. By the time Customer deliveries are starting production will be high enough that even if they did hand them out like candy to a few hundred “influencers” it’s not going to noticeably affect deliveries by more than a day.

 

[cyberda]

Based on this... and my reservation # (high 400k), this looks like 2028 delivery. Still no details on final MSRP too, I'm out if its gone up substantially. The only good thing is that there is plenty of time to determine if they are producing a quality vehicle.

... in the meantime I am super happy with my Maverick

 

[greggertruck]

Kind of what I’ve been guessing, I would get my truck late next year. Very much depends on the attrition rate.

Maybe sooner if I get lucky.

 

[TyPope]

Based on this... and my reservation # (high 400k), this looks like 2028 delivery. Still no details on final MSRP too, I'm out if its gone up substantially. The only good thing is that there is plenty of time to determine if they are producing a quality vehicle.

... in the meantime I am super happy with my Maverick

2024
2025
2026
2027
You don't think Tesla will be able to make 100,000 a year? Glad you like your Maverick, BTW. I'm on the wait list for one but am debating canceling because I'm in the 450,000 range for a CT and I believe I'll get mine next Summer (cancelations and trim level should put me in the 150,000 range) . It may not be worth getting a Maverick for just a year. I'm expecting 5,000 per week production rate by next February and at least 200,000 produced in 2024.

 

[cyberda]

2024
2025
2026
2027
You don't think Tesla will be able to make 100,000 a year? Glad you like your Maverick, BTW. I'm on the wait list for one but am debating canceling because I'm in the 450,000 range for a CT and I believe I'll get mine next Summer (cancelations and trim level should put me in the 150,000 range) . It may not be worth getting a Maverick for just a year. I'm expecting 5,000 per week production rate by next February and at least 200,000 produced in 2024.

Well... since this is all a new production type (ie stainless steel)... sustained volumes have a long way to be proven. I'm kind of in the "I'll believe it when I see it" crowd.

My old ride (Sienna) was on its final legs, so I needed something! So far it has been a fantastic truck.

 

[greggertruck]

2024
2025
2026
2027
You don't think Tesla will be able to make 100,000 a year? Glad you like your Maverick, BTW. I'm on the wait list for one but am debating canceling because I'm in the 450,000 range for a CT and I believe I'll get mine next Summer (cancelations and trim level should put me in the 150,000 range) . It may not be worth getting a Maverick for just a year. I'm expecting 5,000 per week production rate by next February and at least 200,000 produced in 2024.

Ty, buddy. You know I am a bull. I am your friend. i love you.

There is not going to be 200k trucks made next year.

Your attrition guess isn't crazy though, the take rate will be 30-40% I'd guess.

 

[Ogre]

Ty, buddy. You know I am a bull. I am your friend. i love you.

There is not going to be 200k trucks made next year.

Your attrition guess isn't crazy though, the take rate will be 30-40% I'd guess.

All depends on the ramp and when production starts. It’s possible.

 

[greggertruck]

All depends on the ramp and when production starts. It’s possible.

Totally possibly, highly unlikely. If they get 25k out this year, 200k is totally more likely. I hope they do. I aim to have my truck before 2025... but.

 

[jjrich703]

I’m at 59XX, but since mine is a dual-motor without FSD, I live in Los Angeles, and this would be my first Tesla, I’m more concerned about all the people that Tesla will jump me for highest spec models, closer locations to TX, multiple prior Tesla owners, celebrities and other influencers, etc.

How can you tell what reservation number you are??

 

[mfg310]

How can you tell what reservation number you are??

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...er-number-how-to-tell-your-place-in-line.251/

Sponsored