How long to 50k Trucks delivered? (Plotted out)

[Ogre]

Yeah, you are right. While "hope" isn't a plan, I hope that there are plenty of the 4680s available for the CT to ensure smooth production.

Honestly, I think that one day, @JoeTegtmeyer is going to fly and suddenly, there will be 5 or 6 CTs parked outside. A few days later, there will be an additional 10. Suddenly, they will be plentiful. We may never see scrap CT castings like we did for the MY.

Why do you think there will be no visible scrap castings for the early Cybertruck production? I can guarantee they can't put the castings into production without scraping at least the first 50, at a minimum, probably a few hundred. Are you thinking they will recycle them inside the plant into new castings without moving them outside first? I think that unlikely in warm Texas weather that is likely to exist near the beginning of production.

There are scrap castings in big piles outside Giga Texas in Brad’s latest drone video. It’s not clear what they are exactly. I suspect Model Y castings, but it could be something Cybertruck castings. It’s not really clear enough to say for sure what it is, but definitely looks like they are cranking up a Gigapress and testing it.

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[BrianG]

It will be very interesting to see how the Cybertruck will perform in harsher northern climes. Being in Calgary, Alberta and ordering at the first opportunity, it will likely be one of very few here in the Canadian rockies.

 

[HaulingAss]

It will be very interesting to see how the Cybertruck will perform in harsher northern climes. Being in Calgary, Alberta and ordering at the first opportunity, it will likely be one of very few here in the Canadian rockies.

Tesla's existing vehicles are known to perform in a superior manner in the cold, both normal cold and extreme cold, when compared to their EV competitors.

I see no reason to not expect the same fof the Cybertruck. In fact, each new generation tends to best the previous generation.

 

[TyPope]

I need to know your assumptions other than 12/18 month ramp to full production. Please provide the following:

1. Are you assuming a single trim or all trims at start because the reservation numbers include all trims but Tesla never starts with all trims. Which trim are you assuming will be manufactured first? Quad, Tri, Dual?
2. What are you assuming will be the conversion rate to the first trim offered? 20% to Quad, 30% to Tri, 40% to Dual?
3. What are you assuming will be the non-conversion (to sale) rate? 20%? 30%?
4. Your graphs all assume that no more than about 10K units will be produced in 2023. What if you doubled that to 25,000 (which would split the difference between your 10K and the Model Y 50K)?

Could we just shift your graph to the left? You are saying that with an 18m ramp starting at 10K at the end of 2023 we will hit 50K in June of 2024 (6 months later) but if we start at 25K at the end of 2023 then that same point would be hit mid-March 2024. So we should hit 50K sometime between April and June depending on how many CTs are produced in 2023.

1. Single Trim - Top of the (initial) line. They may reserve some kind of Plaid version for later but the first ones off the line MUST beat the best out there... fastest, longest range, best features... Once everyone knows Tesla makes the best truck, the lower models will sell themselves.
2. I believe that most who wanted the tri-motor will move up. I believe the quad motor will not be a large pricing departure from the tri-motor. However, if Tesla offers a long-range 4x4 2 motor, I'd say 60% quad, 40% dual as long as range is close.
3. I believe the drop out/drop back (for foreign sales, for instance) will be close to 50%. In part because, from the order agreement we all signed:

No Resellers;
Tesla and its affiliates sell cars directly to end-consumers, and we may unilaterally cancel any order that we believe has been made with a view toward resale of the Vehicle or that has otherwise been made in bad faith. We may also cancel your pre-order and refund your Pre-Order Payment if we discontinue a product, feature or option after the time you place your pre-order or if we determine that you are acting in bad faith.

4. I just realized those questions were not aimed at me (they appeared after my post in my feed...) But, I've typed this much so far... I believe there will be 212,000 by the end of 2024. I also think the ability to produce 50,000 this year is within Tesla's capabilities.

I think it reasonable that I'll be in my Cybertruck by August next year. I'm around 490,000 or 150,000 (if they only make quad motor version first).

 

[HaulingAss]

I haven't cancelled my reservation but I did decide to add a Model Y to our garage which we picked up Nov. 4. By getting that, I'll likely be pushing off or cancelling any offers by Tesla to confirm my CT reservation. I could predict it was still going to be a year or more away so just couldn't wait since selling our Model 3 to my grandson became a priority with the 2012 Leaf no longer meeting his range needs. It did cost me an extra $20k since we missed the price reduction and the tax credit but we're very happy with the Model Y. Another issue I see on waiting for the CT is a possible charging infrastructure issue if it will be on an 800v system. There has been talk about the possibility since it will be a heavy truck needing large battery packs to meet range expectations. I could be wrong but the current Supercharger system doesn't support that voltage in it's current form and could take a bit more time to modify or build that out to handle thousands of CTs which would be an additional reason to wait. How about L2 charging at home with an 800v BEV. Does current owners of such vehicles with that voltage have any issues with that?

The Cybertruck will be backward compatible with the Supercharger Network.

Who said it wouldn't?

There will also be no problem charging at home.

 

[Throwcomputer]

This chart pushes out a bit further, starting a bit later in 2024.

The green line here is a continuation of the green line in the previous. I made 2 models, the lighter green assumes factory capacity will be capped at 300k trucks/ year. The darker green line assumes capacity grows to 500k trucks/ year.

With the gold lines its based on the faster growth line in the previous chart (actually the gray one), and similarly shows the difference between scaling to 500k trucks versus 300k trucks.

Plug in your favorite cancellation rate, plus subtract a few for international sales. Take that number and look at the above chart. Most likely you’ll get your truck sometime between when the yellow line crosses your number and when the green line does.

If your modified RN number is beyond 500k, give yourself a hug and hope that they do ramp up to 500k trucks per year!

At just over 1 mil... on your graph, I'm looking at Dec 2025 earliest, and more likely 2026-27. so sad. But i'll probably have it fully saved up by then!

 

[TyPope]

Why do you think there will be no visible scrap castings for the early Cybertruck production? I can guarantee they can't put the castings into production without scraping at least the first 50, at a minimum, probably a few hundred. Are you thinking they will recycle them inside the plant into new castings without moving them outside first? I think that unlikely in warm Texas weather that is likely to exist near the beginning of production.

I think the building is far enough along where they'll be able to hide the progress more. However, it seems to be free publicity to show that stuff sometimes so maybe we'll see scrap castings. I don't know why we haven't seen any yet. They already had the furnace chimneys in place for the 9k ton so that would make it quicker than the MY line.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Yeah, you are right. While "hope" isn't a plan, I hope that there are plenty of the 4680s available for the CT to ensure smooth production.

Honestly, I think that one day, @JoeTegtmeyer is going to fly and suddenly, there will be 5 or 6 CTs parked outside. A few days later, there will be an additional 10. Suddenly, they will be plentiful. We may never see scrap CT castings like we did for the MY.

Although I like your spirit, given the size and complexity of the CT rear casting, and the newness of the 9KT gigapress, I am certain that we will see a lot of test castings before we see a CT BIW.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I think the building is far enough along where they'll be able to hide the progress more. However, it seems to be free publicity to show that stuff sometimes so maybe we'll see scrap castings. I don't know why we haven't seen any yet. They already had the furnace chimneys in place for the 9k ton so that would make it quicker than the MY line.

It takes them a couple months to get a gigapress functional so we should see something in March. I do not think those furnace chimneys were for the 9KT as they were put in long before they started working on the 9KT foundation. Also, those chimneys are further south.

 

[charliemagpie]

Austin will have the capacity to make at least 500,000. Well before these 26/27 delivery timeframes I'm hearing lately.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Austin will have the capacity to make at least 500,000. Well before these 26/27 delivery timeframes I'm hearing lately.

Tesla said 250K per year at full production, so unless you have a quote I can only guess that this is wishful thinking on your part. I mean no offense; I just need more than wishful thinking.

 

[charliemagpie]

I have common sense

 

[Ogre]

Tesla said 250K per year at full production, so unless you have a quote I can only guess that this is wishful thinking on your part. I mean no offense; I just need more than wishful thinking.

Musk actually said 250k - 300k “Or More”.

Regardless, this is why I showed 2 scenarios on my model. It really doesn’t make a ton of difference for the first 2 years, even if they are ramping to 500k, it’ll take time to get there.

 

[Crissa]

Also, even if you only assume 200K/annual production, and exclude the first year, 2028 is five years from start of production. They'd be making at least the 800,000th in 2028, not the 400,000th.

Why do you think there will be no visible scrap castings for the early Cybertruck production? I can guarantee they can't put the castings into production without scraping at least the first 50, at a minimum, probably a few hundred. Are you thinking they will recycle them inside the plant into new castings without moving them outside first? I think that unlikely in warm Texas weather that is likely to exist near the beginning of production.

...Because we don't see the scrap that's gone through successful testing, or crash testing. We only see scrap that failed the early casting process. And we'll have a hard time picking out some of the castings from each other.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

I struggle to see Tesla stopping the ramp at 250k. It just makes no sense. Unless sales start to slack off, Tesla has every reason in the world to just keep on scaling the truck and planning capacity for that from go. If they are slamming 250k trucks out the door and orders are coming in as fast as trucks are going out… they are going to keep charging forward until the orders stop coming in.

Then they lower the price and increase production anyhow. That’s what they did with the Model Y.

Giga Texas is HUGE for a reason.

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