Great view this morning into Cybertruck general assembly line

[intimidator]

you're missing the important bit: " People (and media outlets) often mis-cite this statistic, confusing F150's for F-series. "

you're googling with too little critical reading

again, good luck finding Ford breaking out F-150 sales from F-series sales, but it's easy work to find people and media outlets not understanding the difference

According to FiatGroupWorld.com, the F150 sales for 2022 were 525,100. Obviously much lower than pre-panemic.

But I don't get the point. What does it matter how many F150s were sold.
The US pickup truck market is very large.
Tesla will capture a slice of that pie.
How big? I don't know. My WAG is Tesla will never sell 1 million CTs in a year, but 400,000 could be possible. Ram reportedly sold 468,344 units in 2022. Chevy Silverado about 520,000.
All Tesla has to do is sell about the same as Ram, Chevy or Ford and the Cybertruck will be very successful.

Sponsored

 

[cvalue13]

According to FiatGroupWorld.com, the F150 sales for 2022 were 525,100. Obviously much lower than pre-panemic.

again:

you're missing the important bit: " People (and media outlets) often mis-cite this statistic, confusing F150's for F-series. "

But I don't get the point. What does it matter how many F150s were sold.

you tell me:

In peak years Ford has sold 1 million F150s.

I’m only saying if you’re going to cite F150 sales as a relevant datapoint, at least understand you’re miss-citing the relevant data

 

[Rockvillerich]

Met a dude playing poker on Saturday night. One of the regulars asked me about my Cybertruck pre-order and how production was going.
This guy jumped in with his "Electric cars are slow and lame" business.
"I've got a Diesel truck." he said, "With real power!".
I pointed out to him that I will always be able to create electricity at home to charge the Cybertruck. Solar panels, windmill, hell I could do it with a bicycle if I needed to.
But when they stop selling him Diesel, or Diesel becomes prohibitively expensive his car will be entirely worthless.
He just muttered something about "Smoking me on the road".
I felt kinda bad for him that he is so far behind in his expectations of reality.

Then I took his money.

Either way good to see production plans are progressing smoothly.

Looking forward to watching big powerful diesel trucks getting smaller in my rearview mirror.

 

[Crissa]

Do you know Worldwide in 2022, Tesla sold 482,000 Model 3s. Which was 3% lower than 2021? So there is a ceiling for every model, and...

Tesla is limited by how many they can make, not how many they can sell. The Model 3 doesn't have the advances in the Model Y, let alone the new Austin/Berlin ones.

-Crissa

 

[intimidator]

Tesla is limited by how many they can make, not how many they can sell. The Model 3 doesn't have the advances in the Model Y, let alone the new Austin/Berlin ones.

-Crissa

Worldwide in 2022, Tesla sold 747,500 Model Ys, which was UP 91%
Worldwide in 2022, Tesla sold 482,200 Model 3s, which was down 3%

As far as demand vs availability factoring into ultimate sales, obviously you can look at the backlog of Model 3 orders vs Model Ys and compare.

The reality is, at least in the United States, a large # of people prefer bigger vehicles, with a higher seating position, with large rear hatches to load & carry "stuff".

Ford stopped making passenger cars awhile ago for that very reason. Now they only make SUVs, CUVs, and trucks. I think Buick stopped selling sedans too.

If I decided to add a 2nd EV to our driveway fleet, it would be a Model Y.

Sure, the Model 3 will continue to sell, but IMO the Model Y appeals to a wider swath of buyers, despite the higher price point.

I know Tesla has no plans to build a less expensive, slightly shrunk down Model Y, but I believe it would sell like crazy. The Buick Encore is an example of a small SUV/CUV that buyers seem to want. The $30,000 base price doesn't hurt.

 

[firsttruck]

I did find this......Ford sold 896,526 F150s in 2019.

So, yes you are right, not a million.

Of course that segment has the Ram, the various GMC and Chevy pickups, as well as the Nissan and Toyota variants. Oh, and the Honda Ridgeline.
.....

I thought this discussion was about full-size 1/2 ton pickups.

Honda Ridgeline. is not a full-size pickup and really has specs (payload, towing) significantly lower than most full-size 1/2 ton Ford F-150s, GMC/Chevy 1500s, RAM 1500s.

The Honda Rigdeline is a mid-size pick that competes with Ford Ranger, GMC Canyon/Chevy Colorado, etc.

-------------------------------------------

4 Reasons Why Truck Owners Avoid the Honda Ridgeline?
by Nathaniel Ehinger
Published on April 25, 2022
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/4-reasons-truck-owners-avoid-honda-ridgeline/

.....
The Ridgeline competes in the midsize truck market, and offers a 5,000-pound tow rating. This could be too low for most truck owners. When you consider what a tow rating means, you only have enough power to tow a small camping trailer or a lightweight bass boat. Other midsize trucks offer much better tow ratings, including:
* Toyota Tacoma – 6,800 pounds
* Ford Ranger – 7,500 pounds
* GMC Canyon/Chevy Colorado – 7,700 pounds


.....
When comparing starting prices, the expectation is that you’re driving a basic truck. The Ridgeline begins at $36,900, which is more than some half-ton full-size trucks. This price is much higher than the Nissan Frontier and the Chevy Colorado. To the Ridgeline’s benefit, the interior of the Honda truck is much more upscale when compared to the Nissan and Chevy models.

-------------------------------------------

 

[HaulingAss]

In the meantime, Sandy Munro just did a video on Amprius Battery Company (across the street from Keto Road) and their battery density and speed of charging is a step function forward compared to Tesla batteries. I think this type of competition is good for the industry.

Big media, funded largely by oil and auto interests, has created the impression that current EV battery tech is not quite ready for mainstream adoption. As the owner of two Model 3's for 5 years, I can tell you that is false, the speed of charging is awesome, the range is awesome, and the car does not feel overweight, if anything, the Model 3's feels lighter than our slower, less efficient Volvo S80 that had the same interior space. And battery life is already better than internal combustion engine and transmission lifespan (and they need no regular sevicing to achieve that).

Competition is good, but make no mistake, the primary competition in the battery space is that of price because for automotive use, the batteries of 5 years ago were already awesome. I'm not saying more energy density is not a good thing, obviously it is, but that is not the primary feature batteries are competing on in the auto space - it is one of price per kWh. Other improvements are always welcome but low cost wins the sales game. Low cost and high volume is what will make the 4680 cell a gamechanger. The latest and greatest chemistry will only make the 4680 better (likely at an incrementally higher cost).

Tesla is not ramping 4680 to extreme volume until they have fully validated the product and the processes such that they can be confident there is not a large warranty cost down the road (and the production is less expensive than batteries they can buy from other suppliers). Because of the huge cost efficiencies of processes without solvents and huge drying ovens, this is simply a matter of time. It's like Elon said, manufacturing is hard. As a shareholder, I can be glad Tesla is not feeling pressured to rush something into mass production until they know it's ready. The dry battery electrode will be a game-changer, not because the product will be better than a similar battery made with a wet process, but because it will be much less expensive and able to be made in much larger quantities with less capital investment for each new plant. The demand for batteries is growing exponentially due to a confluence of factors and uses.

This is not the kind of race that is won in a day a week or a year, this is a fundamental change in what powers our civilization. Electricity is replacing oil. From a practical perspective, battery specs are already good enough for cars and stationary storage, we just need them in extreme volume and at ever cheaper prices. This is what Tesla is working on and it's not a race that is won in the short-term.

Batteries with much higher energy density will be developed. Energy density will be so high that it makes electric air transport practical, but those batteries will take years to come down in price enough to be used for cars. Never under-estimate the importance of low-price when it comes to bringing value to the cash-strapped consumers who need a car to improve their lives.

 

[intimidator]

Big media, funded largely by oil and auto interests, has created the impression that current EV battery tech is not quite ready for mainstream adoption. As the owner of two Model 3's for 5 years, I can tell you that is false, the speed of charging is awesome, the range is awesome, and the car does not feel overweight, if anything, the Model 3's feels lighter than our slower, less efficient Volvo S80 that had the same interior space. And battery life is already better than internal combustion engine and transmission lifespan (and they need no regular sevicing to achieve that).

Competition is good, but make no mistake, the primary competition in the battery space is that of price because for automotive use, the batteries of 5 years ago were already awesome. I'm not saying more energy density is not a good thing, obviously it is, but that is not the primary feature batteries are competing on in the auto space - it is one of price per kWh. Other improvements are always welcome but low cost wins the sales game. Low cost and high volume is what will make the 4680 cell a gamechanger. The latest and greatest chemistry will only make the 4680 better (likely at an incrementally higher cost).

Tesla is not ramping 4680 to extreme volume until they have fully validated the product and the processes such that they can be confident there is not a large warranty cost down the road (and the production is less expensive than batteries they can buy from other suppliers). Because of the huge cost efficiencies of processes without solvents and huge drying ovens, this is simply a matter of time. It's like Elon said, manufacturing is hard. As a shareholder, I can be glad Tesla is not feeling pressured to rush something into mass production until they know it's ready. The dry battery electrode will be a game-changer, not because the product will be better than a similar battery made with a wet process, but because it will be much less expensive and able to be made in much larger quantities with less capital investment for each new plant. The demand for batteries is growing exponentially due to a confluence of factors and uses.

This is not the kind of race that is won in a day a week or a year, this is a fundamental change in what powers our civilization. Electricity is replacing oil. From a practical perspective, battery specs are already good enough for cars and stationary storage, we just need them in extreme volume and at ever cheaper prices. This is what Tesla is working on and it's not a race that is won in the short-term.

Batteries with much higher energy density will be developed. Energy density will be so high that it makes electric air transport practical, but those batteries will take years to come down in price enough to be used for cars. Never under-estimate the importance of low-price when it comes to bringing value to the cash-strapped consumers who need a car to improve their lives.

I do hope Tesla can get the 4680 production bugs worked out, AND, get the efficiency to where they promised, AND, it is done at a cheaper price.

All those things are still to come SooN.

Battery cost. Huge, huge part of the whole electrification movement. There are many, many people that will buy a Nissan Murano SUV for $30,000 today over even considering a Model Y. Reason is price. They don't care about spreadsheets, and ROI, etc.

We will get there. It takes time. Things will look a lot different in 5 years.

 

[HaulingAss]

Worldwide in 2022, Tesla sold 747,500 Model Ys, which was UP 91%
Worldwide in 2022, Tesla sold 482,200 Model 3s, which was down 3%

As far as demand vs availability factoring into ultimate sales, obviously you can look at the backlog of Model 3 orders vs Model Ys and compare.

The reality is, at least in the United States, a large # of people prefer bigger vehicles, with a higher seating position, with large rear hatches to load & carry "stuff".

Ford stopped making passenger cars awhile ago for that very reason. Now they only make SUVs, CUVs, and trucks. I think Buick stopped selling sedans too.

If I decided to add a 2nd EV to our driveway fleet, it would be a Model Y.

Sure, the Model 3 will continue to sell, but IMO the Model Y appeals to a wider swath of buyers, despite the higher price point.

I know Tesla has no plans to build a less expensive, slightly shrunk down Model Y, but I believe it would sell like crazy. The Buick Encore is an example of a small SUV/CUV that buyers seem to want. The $30,000 base price doesn't hurt.

The numbers you cite do show the strength of the Model Y over the Model 3 but Tesla had quite a hand in those differences. That's because the Model Y is the latest model with the latest and lowest cost manufacturing innovations. It costs about the same to build a Model Y as a Model 3 so profits are much higher on the Model Y and thus Tesla has emphasized production of Model Y over Model 3 for that reason.

When Tesla once again offers a long-range RWD and AWD Model 3, they will have redesigned it to be less expensive to manufacture. That is going to create a much lower price point car that many more people can afford and it will sell in gigantic volumes. It won't sell more than Model Y (unless consumer preferences change) but it will see faster sales growth over the next couple of years (vs. the Model Y).

The primary reason for Model 3 sales have had -3% sales growth was Tesla has taken away not only the RWD LR Model 3, but also the AWD LR Model 3, two of the most popular configurations of the Model 3 in order that they can sell the easier to manufacture Model Y in greater volumes. That's about to be rectified, much to the happiness of those who didn't want to spend so much money just to get a vehicle with a 300 plus mile EPA range.

 

[intimidator]

The numbers you cite do show the strength of the Model Y over the Model 3 but Tesla had quite a hand in those differences. That's because the Model Y is the latest model with the latest and lowest cost manufacturing innovations. It costs about the same to build a Model Y as a Model 3 so profits are much higher on the Model Y and thus Tesla has emphasized production of Model Y over Model 3 for that reason.

When Tesla once again offers a long-range RWD and AWD Model 3, they will have redesigned it to be less expensive to manufacture. That is going to create a much lower price point car that many more people can afford and it will sell in gigantic volumes. It won't sell more than Model Y (unless consumer preferences change) but it will see faster sales growth over the next couple of years (vs. the Model Y).

The primary reason for Model 3 sales have had -3% sales growth was Tesla has taken away not only the RWD LR Model 3, but also the AWD LR Model 3, two of the most popular configurations of the Model 3 in order that they can sell the easier to manufacture Model Y in greater volumes. That's about to be rectified, much to the happiness of those who didn't want to spend so much money just to get a vehicle with a 300 plus mile EPA range.

I am not super deep in the weeds on Model 3s.

I did hear Elon say "new manufacturing processes" will be implemented when they build a new factory, as opposed to retrofitting existing factories. That makes a ton of sense. For example Elon would have to shut down Freemont for probably 2 months to pull out the old equipment, robots, etc, and install the new. I may not know what I am talking about either. Maybe it would take a lot longer.

The US version of the Model 3 will need a true re-do at some point. For now I assume "Highlander" is more of a big tweak, as opposed to a massive change in how the Model 3 is going to be built. Probably first in China, and later at Freemont. Freemont seems to be busting at the seams and has less ability/room to pivot.

 

[HaulingAss]

There are many, many people that will buy a Nissan Murano SUV for $30,000 today over even considering a Model Y. Reason is price.

That's why Tesla's unaddressed market is so huge and why they continually reduce their cost to produce their products. The vast majority of new cars sold in America are still ICE. Tesla has a lot of room to further lower prices in order to continue eating into the internal combustion vehicle market. In the end, one will need to be really stupid to buy a car you have to fill up with gasoline. Now you only need to be a little bit stupid.

 

[HaulingAss]

I am not super deep in the weeds on Model 3s.

I did hear Elon say "new manufacturing processes" will be implemented when they build a new factory, as opposed to retrofitting existing factories. That makes a ton of sense. For example Elon would have to shut down Freemont for probably 2 months to pull out the old equipment, robots, etc, and install the new. I may not know what I am talking about either. Maybe it would take a lot longer.

The US version of the Model 3 will need a true re-do at some point. For now I assume "Highlander" is more of a big tweak, as opposed to a massive change in how the Model 3 is going to be built. Probably first in China, and later at Freemont. Freemont seems to be busting at the seams and has less ability/room to pivot.

Manufacturing is about incremental improvements but some companies can string those incremental improvements together faster than others.

Project Highland will dramatically lower the cost to produce the Model 3. It will likely not require the shutdown of Fremont or we would see Tesla building up Model 3 inventory. I think many will likely be surprised to see the Model 3 Highland update rolling out of the Austin plant so Fremont can be transitioned without losing the N. American supply of Model 3's.

Don't under-estimate the impact of this change. A cheaper Model 3 will sell like hotcakes to people who need to get from A to B without hundreds of pounds of cargo.

Any way Tesla choses to do it, a less expensive Model 3 will greatly accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, and it won't be a minor tweak, it will be a step-change in efficiency of production to lower the cost to electrify. It's a very efficient method of moving people around and making it easier to build in huge numbers will further increase that efficiency.

 

[Crissa]

Worldwide in 2022, Tesla sold 747,500 Model Ys, which was UP 91%
Worldwide in 2022, Tesla sold 482,200 Model 3s, which was down 3%

Dude, they share a large portion of the engineering and assembly. Tesla doesn't differentiate between them in their quarterly reports, even. The Model 3 needs to be updated to the rest of the line so that it's just as profitable.

Ford stopped making passenger cars awhile ago for that very reason.

No, they stopped because everyone else was eating their lunch. Like Tesla.

Also, sedans had to meet tougher collision and emissions regulations that their trucks and truck-based SUVs did not. Kinda probably the bigger thing, honestly.

The idea Americans dislike sedans? Completely fabricated.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

Dude, they share a large portion of the engineering and assembly. Tesla doesn't differentiate between them in their quarterly reports, even. The Model 3 needs to be updated to the rest of the line so that it's just as profitable.


No, they stopped because everyone else was eating their lunch. Like Tesla.

Also, sedans had to meet tougher collision and emissions regulations that their trucks and truck-based SUVs did not. Kinda probably the bigger thing, honestly.

The idea Americans dislike sedans? Completely fabricated.

-Crissa

Yup, it never was about what Americans wanted. It was what the manufacturers wanted to sell ( less crash-worthy, fewer expensive pollution controls, and lower fuel efficiency SUVs/pickups) instead of less profitable sedans so they could maximize profits.

Safety, environment, health, the country, patriotism did not matter.

Manufacturers advertised what they wanted to sell.

 

[Crissa]

Twenty years ago, I wanted a crossover. A hatchback. AWD or FWD. I could not find what I wanted, because 'Americans don't like hatchbacks'. I had to settle for a Sentra sedan. (Toyota wouldn't give me a loan.)

Today? The next Sentra was a hatchback. Now, nearly all the EVs being released are hatchbacks or crossovers (well, crossover wannabes).

All so they can take advantage of those shifting regulatory gaps.

-Crissa

Sponsored