🥊 Them's fighting words! Ford's Farley disses Cybertruck: 'I make trucks for real people who do real work'

[anionic1]

You seem to be confusing the relevant variables and forces - or in any event, just wrong on this response

the “efficiency” of the Hummer itself (irrespective of battery size) has very little to do with some mechanical efficiency of the motors converting electricity into power - all modern BEV are inordinately efficient in this metric. It’s their superpower. Relative to ICE engines, BEVs have relatively little energy on board but convert every bit of it power eg >95%), while ICE engines have huge amounts of energy on board and convert very little to power eg (<35%).

Put a Hummer in a vacuum (no drag) and on rails (no rolling resistance) and it could go a “million” miles.

It’s the poor drag and poor rolling resistance qualities of the Hummer that are the predominant forces resulting in its large battery not taking it very far. It’s got massive frontal plane and unforgiving angles, all riding on a massive tire/wheel set - which in turn requires a larger, heavier, battery, that further increases its rolling resistance


Hummer battery may as well be pushing a rope through peanut butter.


All of which is already reflected in EPA max range estimates. And doesn’t change when a trailer is attached.

what changes drastically when a trailer is attached is the drag and rolling resistance. And since drag increases exponentially with speed…

So to quote Fat Bastard from Austin Powers, I am inefficient because I am fat and I am fat because I am inefficient. Its a vicious cycle.

Sponsored

 

[CyberGus]

You wanted to hear what the plan was. I elucidated. You're welcome.

For SC stations with no pull thru, you can unhook the trailer, or choose to block several other stations; it's uncouth, but not unseemly if no one is waiting.

I'll point out that a 20-foot ICE truck pulling a 30-foot trailer cannot fill the gas tank at most stations without blocking access or being a nuisance.

 

[CyberGus]

you’re touching the third rail!

technically yes, observing any relevant meaning to the industry classification, at least the upper trim of the CT would be in the 3/4ton class of trucks

Until the IEEE issues standardized classifications for "truck size", they mean whatever I want them to mean. And you can't stop me.

I classify Cybertruck as "three tons of awesome"

 

[HaulingAss]

But Tesla is *DOUBLING* the number of Superchargers in N. America this year, in 2023! Clearly not all of the new chargers will be pull-through stalls, but many are.

The closest Supercharger to me has had 8 stalls for the better part of a decade and doesn't have a single pull-through stall. However, three miles away, Tesla has just christened a new 16 stall Supercharger location and *all* of the stalls are pull-through.

Never underestimate the ability of new locations to dramatically change the composition of the network when a company is willing and able to expand as quickly as Tesla is expanding.

 

[cvalue13]

This vehicle is going to destroy other manufacturers. It's going to put companies out of business.

maybe it will maybe it wont

but in any event, people seem to be talking past one another a lot here

on one hand, there’s a conversation about Tesla’s market position in the truck segment in the near term (eg 2-4 years)

Mon the other hand, there’s a conversation about Tesla’s market position in the truck segment in the medium term (eg 5-10 years)

many one who thinks Tesla’s market position in the truck segment in the near term will be all-dominant, is both deluding themselves and assuming information they don’t yet have (to have any rational basis, you’d need to know the release specs, ramp, and pricing)

that’s separate from what CT’s medium term specs ramp, and pricing could be - daydream away there

people who say “look at the model 3, CT will dominate” appear to be either:

• talking about medium term CT penetration, or

• forgetting what it’s taken (including time) for the Model 3 to get where it is - as well as the differ need between the sedan and truck segment of buyers

 

[cvalue13]

Until the IEEE issues standardized classifications for "truck size", they mean whatever I want them to mean. And you can't stop me.

I classify Cybertruck as "three tons of awesome"

completely agree that it’s player’s choice

if it means nothing, then when people say “CT top trim specs are better than an F150” it’s as uninteresting as saying “and the F650 specs are better than the CT”

If it means (both as much and as little) what industry uses it to mean, then … the exact same same conclusion applies

folks are free to arrive at my correct and infallible conclusion either path they see fit

 

[CyberGus]

completely agree that it’s player’s choice

if it means nothing, then when people say “CT top trim specs are better than an F150” it’s as uninteresting as saying “and the F650 specs are better than the CT”

If it means (both as much and as little) what industry uses it to mean, then … the exact same same conclusion applies

folks are free to arrive at my correct and infallible conclusion either path they see fit

BAW = BDE

I have spoken

 

[papajamaliciousness]

maybe it will maybe it wont

but in any event, people seem to be talking past one another a lot here

on one hand, there’s a conversation about Tesla’s market position in the truck segment in the near term (eg 2-4 years)

Mon the other hand, there’s a conversation about Tesla’s market position in the truck segment in the medium term (eg 5-10 years)

many one who thinks Tesla’s market position in the truck segment in the near term will be all-dominant, is both deluding themselves and assuming information they don’t yet have (to have any rational basis, you’d need to know the release specs, ramp, and pricing)

that’s separate from what CT’s medium term specs ramp, and pricing could be - daydream away there

people who say “look at the model 3, CT will dominate” appear to be either:

• talking about medium term CT penetration, or

• forgetting what it’s taken (including time) for the Model 3 to get where it is - as well as the differ need between the sedan and truck segment of buyers

Well we don't know some things but if we assume the probable truth, that the CT will cost more than it was supposed to cost but not 70K for a base model. If we assume the specs match what was promised but there are some flaws that hardcore truck users notice. Then in that situation we have a rough idea of how it will play out.

Keep in mind the model 3, which was a production disaster, was released less than 6 years ago, in July of 2017 (first production model 3 rolls off line). The Model Y started production in January of 2020. And now the Model Y is the best selling car in some countries, and the number 4 selling car in the United States. The base price of it has dropped significantly to about $46,900--an incredibly expensive car, but in 3 years it has taken the world by storm. So I'm betting that your short term medium term estimates are not taking into account the speed of growth of the MY and M3, not to mention the production lessons learned in the interim, and not to mention the existence of 4 new purpose built plants in the interim (Berlin, Austin, Shanghai, and... I'm forgetting one. Isn't there another one? Or is it just Mexico being built?), unlike the Fremont plant which was repurposed and therefore it had some built in inefficiencies. I know they made the most of it, but I'm just saying. So bang to bullets on the CT is going to take less time. If they get to 100k production in 2024 that is very achievable. I bet 2024 will be above 100k, and 2025 will be at about 250k although I admit I'm guessing. So honestly peak production of 375k really shouldn't be much more than 3 years away.

 

[anionic1]

CT will have its Niche, just like legacy will have its niche.

The issue for legacy is Tesla may take 20% of each of them. Tesla will end up with a healthy number of sales, but legacy will have dropped 20%.

Take 20% of cream off the top. It hurts.

I think that 20% is low because some areas with huge truck volume such as California are quickly going green. All new residence now have to be constructed with solar in CA and they have some pretty aggressive EV goals. I work in construction and these guys driving big trucks an hour ea. way to get to the job site rack up huge gas bills. $1000 to $1500/ month is not unheard of. With reliable EV trucks and solar some will be able cut their cost by over 50%. That will give many workers a clear advantage and i think that is going to catch on once the EV truck range is where it needs to be. If there is an affordable CT with 400 miles of range I think it will take a huge market share within 3 years. There are roughly 4.7M trucks on the road in CA. Also, the CT as it is currently designed is more of a cross between an SUV and a truck and its electric. I know a bunch of people that would rather drive a truck but dont because of the ICE cost per mi. If they can greatly reduce that with an EV truck they are all in. So I think not only will they be biting at the truck market but there will be a bunch of people switching to the CT.

On another thought, I think the CT is going to quickly struggle with the commodity issue. Like the 3 and Y that become so popular that they become ordinary and need a refresh to keep interest. That is something Tesla is new to and will be a struggle when prioritizing aerodynamics because there is one shape that is most aerodynamic and Tesla is playing with coolness to get as close to that shape as possible. Obviously with the CT they were more limited. So what will they do with the CT in a few years to keep it fresh. I think they can tweak the lights and body lines a little but with the geometric shape it will be the most difficult to tweak because geometrical shapes are much harder to proportion aesthetically than curves. I think they need to look at other cool metal options and i have said this before. If they are working with sheet goods and just bending them they will have a lot of options. It would be cool to see a carbon fiber option in the future, probably be cool to see a galvanized steel option, a corten steel option, anodized aluminum options would be really cool.

 

[Diehard]

But Tesla is *DOUBLING* the number of Superchargers in N. America this year, in 2023! Clearly not all of the new chargers will be pull-through stalls, but many are.

The closest Supercharger to me has had 8 stalls for the better part of a decade and doesn't have a single pull-through stall. However, three miles away, Tesla has just christened a new 16 stall Supercharger location and *all* of the stalls are pull-through.

Never underestimate the ability of new locations to dramatically change the composition of the network when a company is willing and able to expand as quickly as Tesla is expanding.

Just realized if a lot of new locations have pull through but not included in the 12000 locations shared, that would give CT another edge.

 

[HaulingAss]

Do you understand what doubling the number of stalls in one year means? That means, before the end of the year is out, Tesla plans to have installed more stalls than in all of the previous 10 years combined! There was no missed opportunity, there was "optimum" oppportunity taken advantage of. That means building the most suitable stalls first, in the highest numbers possible. Pull through stalls severely limits where Superchargers are located and how much it costs to expand the network per stall.

There is a reason why Tesla has, by far, a better charging network than all the other operators combined, even though charging is the primary mission of many of them. Putting additional restraints on site locations and how much it costs to open a new site would not allow Tesla to have built the network they did, in such a short amount of time and with such an efficient amount of expenditures. Priorities matter.

Now we are entering into the era of the Cybertruck, and, guess what? I've never seen so many pull-through stalls under construction. All goodness comes to those who wait.

 

[HaulingAss]

Just realized if a lot of new locations have pull through but not included in the 12000 locations shared, that would give CT another edg.

Actually, I think it is many of the earliest Superchargers that might not be included in the 12,000 open to others. The other brand EV's, with their non-standardized charge port locations, will benefit in a big way from pull-through locations without having to block other stalls.

And this benefits Tesla in that it reduces demand for new stalls to be built to accommodate thrid parties.

 

[Almost Mars]

Solid axles, dual rear wheels, and the possibility for fifth wheel towing.

And what do you get with solid axles and dual wheels? I don’t see why you can’t do a 5th wheel. Those necks are very tall and we don’t even know how high the side walls will be at the connection point. If a Vw bug can act as a 5th wheel, I’m going to assume Tesla can make it work.

Sponsored