Article - With the Cybertruck, Tesla Faces Its Edsel Moment

[TBONO]

“The Edsel, named after Edsel Ford, the son of Henry Ford, is the notorious automotive failure, the one that stands out above the rest.”

You have a different idea of what positive is than I do.

Yeah… I’m edumacated on dat….

did you read the article? His point is the CT won’t be an Edsel

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[cvalue13]

WTF

Are people not even reading the article before just smashing their complaint meat?

Even this article is a “hit piece”

Spoiler

for those that don’t read it

 

[jerhenderson]

I mean the last presentation they did had a vehicle under a sheet that looked like a van and they said it was built on the CT platform. I'm not sure why "analysts" can't put 2 and 2 together

don't assume analysts are smart.

 

[Regenshire]

WTF

Are people not even reading the article before just smashing their complaint meat?

Even this article is a “hit piece”

Spoiler

for those that don’t read it

I know right. I am glad to see I am not the only person who bothered to read it.

The article asserts that they don't think the cybertruck will be a failure.

If Reddit has taught me one thing, its that people only read titles, so I am not shocked at all the comments.

 

[firsttruck]

I know right. I am glad to see I am not the only person who bothered to read it.

The article asserts that they don't think the cybertruck will be a failure.

If Reddit has taught me one thing, its that people only read titles, so I am not shocked at all the comments.

Of course. The title did not have a question mark at the end.
It is logical that the title would be interpreted as a statement not a question.
I don't think the lack of question mark was accidental.
The publisher know most will not read the article. The publisher wanted to mislead most people but later claim to the few that complained that they were not anti-Tesla.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

Here's the full article from Barron's:

With the Cybertruck, Tesla Faces Its Edsel Moment

Tesla’s Avant-Garde Cybertruck is coming any day now. It’s the most important vehicle for the company since the 2017 introduction of its more affordable Model 3 electric vehicle.

The 3 helped usher in an era of growth, profits, and incredible stock gains for Tesla. The Cybertruck could do the same, or it could end up being Elon Musk’s Edsel.

The Edsel, named after Edsel Ford, the son of Henry Ford, is the notorious automotive failure, the one that stands out above the rest. It was more of a brand, like Pontiac or Saturn, than a single car. Ford Motor (F) launched a seven-model lineup in 1958. The company killed Edsel off in late 1959. Weak demand, weak reviews, weak customer reaction, all following weak product development processes, conspired to doom the nameplate.

Car buyers have been waiting for the oddly shaped Cybertruck since 2019. Now that it’s about to arrive, investors are wondering if the long-delayed pickup will be as big a flop.

It won’t be. Not by a long shot. Edsels never really found a market niche. They were large and launched during a recession and at a time when customers were beginning to look for more fuel-efficient options.

Price isn’t a barrier for Cybertruck either. It was designed to cost roughly $40,000 to $70,000. That was a price list set in 2019, however. Inflation has impacted everything. Still, the Cybertruck won’t be priced out of the mainstream truck market. New model year 2023 pickup trucks cost an average of about $64,000, Cox Automotive tells Barron’s. The average transaction price for a new 2023 F-150 Lightning is almost $87,000.

The market isn’t an issue, but what about the product? The Cybertruck will have new technology. It’s based on an “exoskeleton-based” design, says Elon Musk. That’s essentially a unibody design, explains Munro and Associates President Corey Steuben. Munro is a go-to source for manufacturing, design, and cost data for both auto investors and industry denizens.

Unibody isn’t very common. Most vehicles body-on-frame, which is exactly what it sounds like. The car body is dropped on a chassis. A unibody integrates the chassis and frame together, making it stronger and lighter. Lighter for an EV means more miles of range per unit of battery capacity.

The Cybertruck will be unique. While there are smaller truck models such as the Ford Maverick and Honda Motor (HMC) Ridgeline, large ones are typically body-on-frame. So Tesla is pushing the envelope on weight, strength, and efficiency. Cybertruck will also be able to accept one megawatt direct current charging, which means it will charge very fast with hundreds of miles of range delivered in minutes.

The market is there, the technology is solid, but what about that design? It looks like something out of a mediocre sci-fi film. Future Fund Active ETF (FFND) co-founder and Tesla shareholder Gary Black believes the design works and says it will serve as a rolling billboard for Tesla.

Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management CEO Ross Gerber, who also owns the stock, agrees. “It’s super dope,” he says. “This is a game changer and [Tesla] will sell even more trucks once people see them on the road.”

As Tesla shareholders, both men are inclined to be bullish. Still, initial sales shouldn’t be a problem. Tesla has taken hundreds of thousands of preorders for the vehicle. Not all of those will become sales, but the order backlog should be more than enough to meet expectations for 2023 and 2024 deliveries.

Wall Street expects less than 10,000 Cybertrucks to be delivered in 2023 and fewer than 100,000 in 2024. That isn’t a high bar and Tesla can likely hit those numbers. The Cybertruck might be harder to make, but Tesla produced roughly 84,000 Model Ys in 2020, the first year of that vehicle. It made more than 400,000 Ys in 2021.

What Tesla should do after launching the Cybertruck is produce a more conventional-looking truck on the same tooling to expand Tesla trucks’ addressable market, says Black. It’s a sound idea. Tesla makes multiple cars on each of its platforms. It makes the S and X on the same platform and the 3 and Y on the same platform.

The 3 and the Y were smaller and cheaper than the S and X. After the Cybertruck and its companion product should also come a smaller truck, like a Ford Ranger. That would be Tesla’s global truck. The market for trucks outside the U.S. demands smaller vehicles. The Tacoma-sized Hilux from Toyota Motor (TM) is one of the best-selling trucks in the world.

Trucks are a good long-term opportunity for Tesla. Cybertruck won’t be anything like the Edsel.

'Hundreds of thousands of preorders'
How does ~1.8 MILLION sound?

 

[cvalue13]

Of course. The title did not have a question mark at the end.
It is logical that the title would be interpreted as a statement not a question.
I don't think the lack of question mark was accidental.
The publisher know most will not read the article. The publisher wanted to mislead most people but later claim to the few that complained that they were not anti-Tesla.

*slaps own face repeatedly*

read title again

 

[TBONO]

'Hundreds of thousands of preorders'
How does ~1.8 MILLION sound?

Agreed. That was probably the one potential error I noticed as well, that said it’s technically not wrong.

 

[Flaskman]

Time and time again I watch or read what the "pro" annalists have to say and it is obvious they are either putting down Tesla for whatever agenda they are following or have no idea what they are talking about. Go Elon !

 

[cvalue13]

Agreed. That was probably the one potential error I noticed as well, that said it’s technically not wrong.

there’s no actual verification of 1.8M as far as I know? That’s a fan estimate

Musk/Tesla has only confirmed hundreds of thousands as far as I know?

So aren’t we witnessing … some journalistic accuracy, rather than “error”?

This whole thread is really such a Rorschach test

 

[TBONO]

there’s no actual verification of 1.8M as far as I know? That’s a fan estimate

Musk/Tesla has only confirmed hundreds of thousands as far as I know?

So aren’t we witnessing … some journalistic accuracy, rather than “error”?

This whole thread is really such a Rorschach test

Yes, you may be correct I’m not sure of the details of what exactly Tesla has communicated an exact numbers
But I think we’re saying the same thing that’s why I used the term potential error followed up by: He’s technically not wrong
as over 1 million and less than 2 million could still be stated, as hundreds of thousands probably more accurate than millions.

 

[Mrp911]

Thank you for sharing the article.

That said....Yep. I'm sure all of us and everyone at Tesla are quite concerned that the CyberTruck will be a failure on the scale of Ford's Edsel line. /s

Not concerned at all, as the look will continue to grow acceptance over time and the technology satisfaction of the CT will strongly enhance demand.

 

[Cybergirl]

Most people are uncomfortable with change. They have to be dragged kicking and screaming into a changed world. The Cybertruck is change times 10. It is the future of the pickup truck. Pretending and wishing otherwise will not prevent that from happening.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

What Tesla SHOULD do (and does) is IGNORE what everyone else has done and do something different! For me, the whole reason behind my CT purchase is that it is DIFFERENT! (oh no, he’s getting fired up, here comes the rant) I am absolutely sick and tired of the auto industry cranking out one vehicle after another that looks just like the the one before it and will look like the one after it. With all the multi-brand designs (take a Chevy, put leather in it and different lights and its a Cad, or the Toyota/Lexus, Honda/Acura, Nissan/Infinity) it just keeps getting worse. Even the new smaller Rolls Royce is nothing more than an Upgraded BMW 7 series! That’s freakin’ RR! (Bought by the Germans) And don’t get me started on the Mustang, Camaro, Challenger, Charger, Bug (v2), etc. It’s like there is no one in the industry with two brain cells they can rub together and create a new design! I’ve never bought a truck. I don’t really NEED a truck, but I’m buying the CyberTruck because I want something different. I want someone to throw the software and technology kitchen sink at a car and surprise me. I mean, cheese and rice, would someone take a chance for once in this business? Tesla puts crazy stuff in their production cars. Dog mode is crazy, even though it makes great sense and is a huge safety improvement. Romance mode is just plain funny, and the whoopy cushion and light show is plain brilliant. I want THAT in a car. I want to know that if an engineer ever says “Hey look at what I did on my lunch break! BWAHAHAHA” that it stands a chance of ending up in my car. I want to laugh at it too. I want a company that has the 30X Stainless Steel huevos to send me that update. I want the guy walking across the street in front of me to hear fart sounds because I have my turn signal on! I want personality and difference. And that’s why I reserved a CT, and why I’ll buy a Tesla of some kind this year to hold me over. (Probably a refreshed 3 perf)

But no, the same old morons are giving the same old advice and suggesting Tesla should be just like everyone else for their next act. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

Word

 

[davelloydbrown]

Here's the full article from Barron's:

With the Cybertruck, Tesla Faces Its Edsel Moment

Tesla’s Avant-Garde Cybertruck is coming any day now. It’s the most important vehicle for the company since the 2017 introduction of its more affordable Model 3 electric vehicle.

The 3 helped usher in an era of growth, profits, and incredible stock gains for Tesla. The Cybertruck could do the same, or it could end up being Elon Musk’s Edsel.

The Edsel, named after Edsel Ford, the son of Henry Ford, is the notorious automotive failure, the one that stands out above the rest. It was more of a brand, like Pontiac or Saturn, than a single car. Ford Motor (F) launched a seven-model lineup in 1958. The company killed Edsel off in late 1959. Weak demand, weak reviews, weak customer reaction, all following weak product development processes, conspired to doom the nameplate.

Car buyers have been waiting for the oddly shaped Cybertruck since 2019. Now that it’s about to arrive, investors are wondering if the long-delayed pickup will be as big a flop.

It won’t be. Not by a long shot. Edsels never really found a market niche. They were large and launched during a recession and at a time when customers were beginning to look for more fuel-efficient options.

Price isn’t a barrier for Cybertruck either. It was designed to cost roughly $40,000 to $70,000. That was a price list set in 2019, however. Inflation has impacted everything. Still, the Cybertruck won’t be priced out of the mainstream truck market. New model year 2023 pickup trucks cost an average of about $64,000, Cox Automotive tells Barron’s. The average transaction price for a new 2023 F-150 Lightning is almost $87,000.

The market isn’t an issue, but what about the product? The Cybertruck will have new technology. It’s based on an “exoskeleton-based” design, says Elon Musk. That’s essentially a unibody design, explains Munro and Associates President Corey Steuben. Munro is a go-to source for manufacturing, design, and cost data for both auto investors and industry denizens.

Unibody isn’t very common. Most vehicles body-on-frame, which is exactly what it sounds like. The car body is dropped on a chassis. A unibody integrates the chassis and frame together, making it stronger and lighter. Lighter for an EV means more miles of range per unit of battery capacity.

The Cybertruck will be unique. While there are smaller truck models such as the Ford Maverick and Honda Motor (HMC) Ridgeline, large ones are typically body-on-frame. So Tesla is pushing the envelope on weight, strength, and efficiency. Cybertruck will also be able to accept one megawatt direct current charging, which means it will charge very fast with hundreds of miles of range delivered in minutes.

The market is there, the technology is solid, but what about that design? It looks like something out of a mediocre sci-fi film. Future Fund Active ETF (FFND) co-founder and Tesla shareholder Gary Black believes the design works and says it will serve as a rolling billboard for Tesla.

Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management CEO Ross Gerber, who also owns the stock, agrees. “It’s super dope,” he says. “This is a game changer and [Tesla] will sell even more trucks once people see them on the road.”

As Tesla shareholders, both men are inclined to be bullish. Still, initial sales shouldn’t be a problem. Tesla has taken hundreds of thousands of preorders for the vehicle. Not all of those will become sales, but the order backlog should be more than enough to meet expectations for 2023 and 2024 deliveries.

Wall Street expects less than 10,000 Cybertrucks to be delivered in 2023 and fewer than 100,000 in 2024. That isn’t a high bar and Tesla can likely hit those numbers. The Cybertruck might be harder to make, but Tesla produced roughly 84,000 Model Ys in 2020, the first year of that vehicle. It made more than 400,000 Ys in 2021.

What Tesla should do after launching the Cybertruck is produce a more conventional-looking truck on the same tooling to expand Tesla trucks’ addressable market, says Black. It’s a sound idea. Tesla makes multiple cars on each of its platforms. It makes the S and X on the same platform and the 3 and Y on the same platform.

The 3 and the Y were smaller and cheaper than the S and X. After the Cybertruck and its companion product should also come a smaller truck, like a Ford Ranger. That would be Tesla’s global truck. The market for trucks outside the U.S. demands smaller vehicles. The Tacoma-sized Hilux from Toyota Motor (TM) is one of the best-selling trucks in the world.

Trucks are a good long-term opportunity for Tesla. Cybertruck won’t be anything like the Edsel.

I'm sorry but I don't understand the reasoning for your lengthly diatribe. You go to great length to describe Ford's failed Edsel suggesting that the CT might be the same but in the end you state that the CT will not be the same as the Edsel.

With over 1.5 million reservations and many incredible innovations, a better comparison to the CT would be the Delorean, a much sought after automotive icon.

The Delorean and the CT share similar design features because of the use of stainless steel which cannot be stamped, but the CT will be at least two orders of magnitude (as Elon says) better!!

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