350 mile range Quad Motor rumored to be 1st trim launched

[Diehard]

Level 3 will be around for 6 months tops before jumping straight to lvl 5, with the way Tesla is implementing self driving. This is not so for the competition, who has to map all of their routes.. Who the hell ever thought that was a good idea!?!?! I mean legacy company management is all literally INSANE, so i guess i'm not too surprised..

The competition are mostly car companies. They have to make decisions (on what tech to buy) to make them cost effective to get their cars around on the highways. ELon is developing a tech that can be used in cars, in robots' heads as well as in uncharted territories like other planets where you may not be able to map anything ahead of time. Even if he spends more money doing it the way he does, it still may end up being cheaper since it serves three goals simultaneously. That does not necessarily mean GM and Ford's investment on super cruise and blue cruise was a total loss. Many of their customers are happy with those products. And even if they were interested buying Tesla's tech instead, I doubt Elon would sell.

I say all of this knowing next to nothing about inner working of non of these technologies.

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[Baldey]

I guess i thought american car companies were more than just OEM integrators. But this has proven to me that none of them have proper RnD dperatments, they are all just rehashing the same shit over and over. The only real innovation happens at companies the car companies partner with. Sad, they should all go bankrupt.

But im also disappointed in Google's waymo, and Uber's sad sad attempt.. Not just car companies. Those do be buying software companies left and right though..

 

[Baldey]

I've bookmarked your post, so that I can come back to it in a few months

Nice, i dig.

I didn't say i was pulling numbers out of arses. With brevity, i referenced that other people who know have done their own maths to various ranges. See eg Munro's discusson on this point. They think Tesla will need more like 1,300-1,500. You think less. That's fine. One of you will be more right or more wrong.

They were pulling numbers out of their arses, and you didn't even quote them right.

I saw this [and every other] Munro video, the moment they come out. But just for you, i watched it again. Couple quotes from them:
"4680 MYs are like unicorns"
"10 million divided by about a thousand cells per vehicle" "then there'll be ten thousand vehicles!"
"we dont know when this was written" "it was june 17th" "a lot can happen in a month!"
"you'll need double that. 800 in a model y, 1600-2000 in CT"
"we've heard a lot of different #s as to how many kWh are in this"



Some things to note.. 800 cells in the model Y give 67.6kWh . So that's why i used a 1000 cell estimate for the standard range dual motor trim: i assumed a 90-100 kWh battery to give a 4 tonn vehicle 350 miles. You'll see, that in my estimates i said 10k dual motors @1000 cells per, OR 5k tri motors [@2000 cells per] . So we think about the same, and we will both be wrong.

And no, im not Tesla. That guy died while feeding pidgeons. All i'm saying is my logic makes sense to me. And if i were a company, i would follow that logic. You have still not provided an argument to change my mind

 

[cvalue13]

They were pulling numbers out of their arses, and you didn't even quote them right.

I’m just flicking thumbs off hand and didn’t care to dig into details at present

I’ve seen people with what appears to be at least as much knowledge and math as yourself arrive at different numbers. I don’t need or want to arbitrate amongst you.

in any event, the earlier content of the battery constraint discussion was I think sufficiently qualified that there are ranges to be had out there, and whichever you choose to take it results in a lower number than one might expect

eg, your (in my view) optimistic figure of 10K/mo assumed zero cells allotted to MY

You have still not provided an argument to change my mind

Just to clarify: my injection that there will be relatively few tri-motors available for the foreseeable future was not based on the battery constraint point

as to why there’ll be fewer tri’s, only Tesla knows

if your point is that it wouldn’t be due to battery constraint (because regardless of battery availability they should create tris over duals), that’s interesting.

but there are reasons to believe Tesla may value production stats over per-unit MSRP

 

[Baldey]

eg, your (in my view) optimistic figure of 10K/mo assumed zero cells allotted to MY

I think 10k/mo dual motors or 5k tri motors is a conservative estimate. I think that from June to start of production, there will be plenty of time to increase capacity. Even an order of magnitude would be a conservative estimate, and as we've established, 10m per month is half that. They are literally using canning equipment, and filling 7 story buildings with the stuff.

And yes, i am assuming no cells allotted to MY. Its called the cyber cell after all. Any extra cells they cant put into the CT will go into more unicorn MYs. But the 4680 MY isn't an official thing yet. It was obviously used as a test bed for the new battery tech.

but there are reasons to believe Tesla may value production stats over per-unit MSRP

Aah i see, thanks for clarifying. That is a fair enough reason to think so.. But here, i think we can agree to disagree

I dont think they care about investors much: musk has said they are fickle and loves toying with the shorters. They do care about profit though. And my point is that they can make more margin by stuffing these cells into higher trims. Sell less units at the beginning, but to a higher paying customer. Then ramp production while adding trims. Every other company does this, even Tesla with the Roadster and then the S and X before the 3 and Y. Because it makes sense.

By the way i love how it looks like our cars are arguing

 

[cvalue13]

Aah i see, thanks for clarifying. That is a fair enough reason to think so.. But here, i think we can agree to disagree

that wasn’t something I take any position on

I’m only saying that, while you’re opinion is that they should prioritize tri’s (I think because of MSRP), there seem available other opinions/reasons why they might not

I don’t really take any position as for Tesla’s reasoning

Only thing I take a position on is the outcome of whatever that reasoning is (eg tri’s will be rare for some time)

 

[PilotPete]

I dont think they care about investors much: musk has said they are fickle and loves toying with the shorters. They do care about profit though. And my point is that they can make more margin by stuffing these cells into higher trims. Sell less units at the beginning, but to a higher paying customer. Then ramp production while adding trims. Every other company does this, even Tesla with the Roadster and then the S and X before the 3 and Y. Because it makes sense.

I think Elon cares about shareholders, I just don’t think he is going let them or the market dictate how he runs the company. I also think you’re putting too much weight on margin. This is the way legacy thinks. It could be a bit myopic for a company like Tesla. Elon is in this for the long run. Tesla has cash in the bank, so immediate profit may not be the #1 priority. Market share has to factor into his thought process. And it may be that he sees flooding the market more important than a dollar today. Again, Tesla has dollars, what they want is more market share, and to convert more buyers away from ICE vehicles.

 

[Mini2nut]

Because of 4680 battery cell production limitations I don’t think we will see a 400-500 mile battery pack for 1-2 years.

I predict Tesla will be forced to change up their normal MO of selling higher priced trims first. A 300-350 mile Dual Motor trim will likely be the first trim offered right out of the gate.

The Cybertruck will probably be the heaviest Tesla made to date. I’m guessing somewhere around the 3 - 3.5 ton range. For reference the Rivian R1T weighs in at over 3.5 tons. The aluminum Giga castings and lack of a steel ladder frame should help the Cybertruck weigh in under the R1T and help with efficiency numbers.

 

[FutureBoy]

The Cybertruck will probably be the heaviest Tesla made to date. I’m guessing somewhere around the 3 - 3.5 ton range.

What about Tesla Semi? You think it’s lighter than CT?

 

[Mini2nut]

Minus the Semi obviously.

 

[Baldey]

I think Elon cares about shareholders, I just don’t think he is going let them or the market dictate how he runs the company. I also think you’re putting too much weight on margin. This is the way legacy thinks. It could be a bit myopic for a company like Tesla. Elon is in this for the long run. Tesla has cash in the bank, so immediate profit may not be the #1 priority. Market share has to factor into his thought process. And it may be that he sees flooding the market more important than a dollar today. Again, Tesla has dollars, what they want is more market share, and to convert more buyers away from ICE vehicles.

I like this take! Although im not sure they'd want to flood the truck market with a sub-par product, and i'm pretty sure they've flooded the EV market with good products already. + the market for the cybertruck is not your average truck buyer, i think. If you want to know what the average truck buyer thinks of this truck, just look at any CT post on facebook.

But margin was not my only reason, just the first.. I think the second biggest one would be smashing the competition. If they come out with a funny looking car that's not even the best on the market, i dono..

Third one would be that its simply easier to build, test, and ship 5k cars than 10k. Were talking about the start of production on a new vehicle in a new factory, you want to start easy.

And fourth is i think they will be able to price it to take advantage of the maximum tax rebate. I think the rebate sets the starting price, which is 80k . Thats not the price of a dual motor..

I have other reasons, i just cant think of them this morning.. Might edit this later with more than these four

 

[RVAC]

Only thing I take a position on is the outcome of whatever that reasoning is (eg tri’s will be rare for some time)

Is your expectation the tri-motor will be 500mi just based on the 2019 unveil specs or is there more to it?

 

[Baldey]

Because of 4680 battery cell production limitations I don’t think we will see a 400-500 mile battery pack for 1-2 years.

I predict Tesla will be forced to change up their normal MO of selling higher priced trims first. A 300-350 mile Dual Motor trim will likely be the first trim offered right out of the gate.

I think your weight peredictions are spont on, but I am really surprised to see so many people with this view about trim. Is it because this is the trim you want? I admit that is probably why i am bias towards the tri..

Again, i think the cell production limitation is a good reason to sell higher trim first: you get to charge more $$$ for the same limited number of cells. And for all of the reasons listed in my comment above. Its not any harder to make a bigger pack, you just cant make as many of them.

The only reason i fear that you guys might be right, is Elon quipped a long time ago that people probably don't want to haul around a giant battery everywhere, as that really impacts handling negatively. But im one of those people that do. I don't care if the CT weighs 4 tonns, if i can haul stuff up mountains and still not worry about camping away from civilization for a weekend while still having access to power.

And while i agree with Elon that more people will buy the dual motor (i've got both on reservation too, and plan to get both), there are a lot of people like me, who just can't wait for Tesla to take our money.

 

[cvalue13]

Is your expectation the tri-motor will be 500mi just based on the 2019 unveil specs or is there more to it?

Yeah I guess so, but at unveil the 500mi range was also tied to the hip of increased towing, speed, etc

So I guess it’s more that I’m assuming achieving 500mi range depends not just on throwing more cells in, but also the efficiencies of the tri motor configuration, as with the semi

but that’s not a strong conviction

 

[RVAC]

Yeah I guess so, but at unveil the 500mi range was also tied to the hip of increased towing, speed, etc

So I guess it’s more that I’m assuming achieving 500mi range depends not just on throwing more cells in, but also the efficiencies of the tri motor configuration, as with the semi

but that’s not a strong conviction

Understood. Was trying to reconcile it with this statement from @greggertruck:

Now

Now I'm interested in where they'll add the rest of the cells for 500 mile version. If you have to increase that number by almost 30%

More cells? No sir. More density.

If they're not adding cells I don't see how the tri-motor, at launch, can have 500 miles of range.

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