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davelloydbrown

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From the comments it looks like my number will be up sooner than expected. Would be nice to understand the process for reservation holders.
I think it is done by AI. I was an early 2016 reservation holder for the M3 and got mine in June of 2018 (28 k one made). I live in Ontario Canada and in June of 2018 we had a generous 14 k CAD EV grant which was going to end because of a change in government. I got my car delivered on election day June 7 2018 (I got the grant) and I think it had a lot to do with the ending of the grant.
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cvalue13

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How do you figure you lose 3 feet of bed??? If the bed is 6ft, and the tweet says it takes up 1/3rd of the bed, that would be 2 ft. This still leaves you with 4ft of bed by my math.
admittedly, i try to do my own work rather than take Elon Musk's often loose marketing speech as my basis for decision. :ROFLMAO:

and at the same time, i was being quick and loose in my speech on first impressions, and doing some over-simplification. But to put more of a point on it:



Here's a 35" tire, which as you in particular will know isn't flus at 6' forward, but because of the sloping bulkhead instead extending say 40"" back. Note where the rearward most portion of the tire lay in respect to the bed floor panel seam.

Tesla Cybertruck OFFICIAL 2024 Cybertruck Pricing, Specs, Mileage/Range, Dimensions, Weight, Info 1701450690517



Compare it then to the photo of the extender:

Tesla Cybertruck OFFICIAL 2024 Cybertruck Pricing, Specs, Mileage/Range, Dimensions, Weight, Info 1701450804680


the extender is perhaps 3-5" shorter in it's extension towards the tailgate, so let's call it (based on our tire estimate) between (if 3") 37" or (if 5") 35" back from the bulkhead.

so, fair enough that my quick-fingered oversimplification was probably errored towards the aggressive, but not so wildly off that I don't have some reasonable doubts about the accuracy of Musk's off-cuff comments about 1/3 of the bed. Very arguably *closer* to 1/2 the bed, than it is closer to 1/3.

I should mention, too, that in the back of my mind are the implications of the net effect of usability of the bed. Which is to say, even if the thing took up only 1/3 of the linear bed floor, that does not mean it has merely a 1/3 reduction on the utility of the bed. This weighed in, though unstated, to my off-cuff assertion of 3' - really i meant, more like an effective length of... in terms of utility.


good question and thanks for asking. interested in your thoughts.
 

davelloydbrown

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You can get lightnings below sticker in several markets currently. Also note that ground clearance is in extra mode and based on the Hummers execution not actually drivable. I expected functional ground clearance to he in the 13-14” range. Still better than most trucks but just an fyi
wait for 2024/25, silverado is supposed to have 450 mile range and by that time it will be on the supercharger network
 

vrpatel

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After 4 years of waiting and tons of speculation, if this is all correct, this will likely have me going elsewhere for an EV Truck.

That is unless, by the time my number comes up, that Tesla gets in the world of reality, on pricing!
Back into 'Hurry-up & Wait' mode. :(
What would you go get? The Rivian is slightly more expensive, the Lightning is slightly less expensive. The Hummer EV is way more expensive and isn't really even a truck. For a full EV truck, this is the going price tag.
 

Xepa777

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I have a 2018 RWD M3 (only model available in 2018) and I will never drive another RWD vehicle in snow in Canada, especially a pick up which has less weight over the rear wheels (less of a problem in EVs)

It also defeats the purpose of off roading so it only makes sense if you are only driving in the city and avoiding the bullets of gang bangers and road ragers.
I live in the Bay Area, which is a real requirement around San Fran and Oakland ?
 


davelloydbrown

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It's honestly amazing just how MANY people they just priced out. Honestly, it does make the most sense. You've got a set number your producing over the next 12-18 months. No need to make it affordable to the masses. I see you all in 2025, maybe. Assuming they still want to make 1/4 million of these a year
predictions before were for a conversion rate of 40%, now they are saying a conversion rate of less than 20%, so when they sell the first 200 k CT then demand will fall off a cliff like the S and X which now combined sell about 100 k per year.
 

ED_SFO

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The upset people need to realize they need to recoup their r&d and initial startup costs....once they make enough price will drop. Elon basically said they need to make these trucks affordable or what's the purpose? If they can predict a 61k single motor truck. The AWD truck I believe can go down to $70-72 range by 2025, and with the rebate for some folks pushing $62-66k range is a pretty compelling offer.
 

davelloydbrown

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One issue I had with the price was that it was too cheap that will quickly become another Model 3. At least being priced in the premium vehicle range will make it feel a lot more special long term.
Do you need to spend money to feel 'special'?

I guess Elon's got your number
 

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Do you need to spend money to feel 'special'?

I guess Elon's got your number
just as with any large ticket item, if I’m paying a lot of money for something, then yes, it should be more scarce.

it’s actually hilarious watching people (including the owner of this forum) now looking for flaws and defects in the Cybertruck.

cope harder because it’s still going to end up being the best selling EV truck.
 


davelloydbrown

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Considering the pricing… Tesla is gonna sell every one they build and won’t be able to build enough for a while!
Yeah that remains to be seen, before the release, they were expecting about a 40% conversion rate on 1 million pre-orders, now that has dropped to a 20% conversion rate. If you consider that the total demand for the s and x combined is less than 100 k, once the initial demand is met and the ramp is over (2025), unless the prices come down you may have demand significantly less than 100 k for the CT (Jim Crammer said it would be 50 k).

I don't think the F150, silverado and Ram ICE vehicles have much to worry about.
 

davelloydbrown

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These are the prices with the gas savings. Add about $10K to the first two models and $3,600 to the tri motor.

Well, well, well. What did I say? I was wrong about them dropping the single motor variant, as it comes out in 2025, but I was almost spot on predicting that the dual motor would be just under $80K to qualify for the tax credit and around $100K for the tri-motor (aka the halo vehicle).

I did not want to be right about this, but the reality is the CyberTruck was announced 4 years ago. Before the pandemic, before supply chain issues, before inflation, and with the hopes that the 4680 battery would be energy dense enough to yield a 500-mile-range battery (the “Cyber Cell” is 10% more energy dense than the original 4680).

Tesla will keep moving forward. They’ll experiment with different battery chemistries and develop electric motors without rare earth minerals. Tesla engineers never stop innovating or iterating. It’s what they do and what makes Tesla such a unique company. They aren’t beholden to a board or investors, and their Techno King is a tech savvy engineer himself who will not bow to anyone until they’ve converted the world to sustainable transportation and energy (His social media activities are in dire need of a handler though.)

Looking forward to seeing the CyberTruck on the roads and in real life. ✌
Yeah even though we have been waiting 4 long years, in another two or three we might actually have an affordable CT with a descent range. Even though we will be envious of the early beast buyers, those who can hold out a couple more years will probably have a better deal and a better vehicle.
 

davelloydbrown

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After 4 years waiting, I'm very disappointed with the price. Living in Canada, we need to add 35% exchange rate + 15% taxe. The Dual will cost me over $120K! Way too much.
Hey at least you guys in Quebec get an 8 k grant, we get nothing in Ontario.

They don't even have the prices on the Tesla Canada website so who knows what the price will be or when they will offer us a truck. I find they charge a couple of points higher than the exchange rate so I figure it will be 126 k CAD for the duel.
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