Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[greggertruck]

Last night I scanned for about 1800 different vins between midnight and 3am and got no new hits. I started a continuous scan for vins 630-699 around 9:40am and got 12 more on the first run. Between 9:59-10:07 I got 2 more. Between 10:32-10:41 I got 3 more. 17 so far today (630-646)!

Ex.
VIN 630 was scanned at
12:20:00 AM -> not active
2:09:00 AM -> not active
9:41:00 AM -> ACTIVE

VIN 642 was scanned at
12:37:00 AM -> not active
12:47:00 AM -> not active
9:42:00 AM -> not active
9:51:00 AM -> not active
9:59:00 AM -> not active
10:07:00 AM -> ACTIVE

VIN 646 was scanned at
12:44:00 AM -> not active
2:23:00 AM -> not active
9:43:00 AM -> not active
9:51:00 AM -> not active
9:59:00 AM -> not active
10:08:00 AM -> not active
10:16:00 AM -> not active
10:24:00 AM -> not active
10:32:00 AM -> not active
10:41:00 AM -> ACTIVE

This tells me that they are continuously updating the recall website throughout the day. Should I assume this is some type of automated process? As one goes onto the line or comes off the line?

I will setup a spare computer to run the program tomorrow so it runs uninterrupted. I'm interested in finding the first and last update to the site. This could change as more shifts are added (currently only running 1 shift per day).

Let's see what Brads flight is like today too. See how the overlayed end of line image looks comparatively and the outbound lot.

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[freakyguy666]

Last night I scanned for about 1800 different vins between midnight and 3am and got no new hits. I started a continuous scan for vins 630-699 around 9:40am and got 12 more on the first run. Between 9:59-10:07 I got 2 more. Between 10:32-10:41 I got 3 more. 17 so far today (630-646)!

Ex.
VIN 630 was scanned at
12:20:00 AM -> not active
2:09:00 AM -> not active
9:41:00 AM -> ACTIVE

VIN 642 was scanned at
12:37:00 AM -> not active
12:47:00 AM -> not active
9:42:00 AM -> not active
9:51:00 AM -> not active
9:59:00 AM -> not active
10:07:00 AM -> ACTIVE

VIN 646 was scanned at
12:44:00 AM -> not active
2:23:00 AM -> not active
9:43:00 AM -> not active
9:51:00 AM -> not active
9:59:00 AM -> not active
10:08:00 AM -> not active
10:16:00 AM -> not active
10:24:00 AM -> not active
10:32:00 AM -> not active
10:41:00 AM -> ACTIVE

This tells me that they are continuously updating the recall website throughout the day. Should I assume this is some type of automated process? As one goes onto the line or comes off the line?

I will setup a spare computer to run the program tomorrow so it runs uninterrupted. I'm interested in finding the first and last update to the site. This could change as more shifts are added (currently only running 1 shift per day).

Could you determine if any of the 17 were the TM?

 

[newwave1331]

Could you determine if any of the 17 were the TM?

All 17 were AWD..... and I just got a couple more!

The 1800 VIN scan I do while I sleep looks for all possible VIN numbers (dual and tri).

 

[cvalue13]

This tells me that they are continuously updating the recall website throughout the day. Should I assume this is some type of automated process? As one goes onto the line or comes off the line?

No

There is ~a gap even between registering the VIN and starting assembly, which batches of VINs are obtained in advance of assembly on a rolling basis.

That gap could be big (weeks) or small (hours), in theory.

At a cartoon level (as sophisticated as my understanding runs):

• On Day [0] Tesla has line-of-sight on how many builds (of either trim) it intends/is capable of completing before Time [x]

• On day [1] Tesla then generates/registers VINs in anticipation of the assemblies to begin before and complete by Time [X]

• Tesla, VINs “in hand” then turns to actually executing assembly/build completion between Day [1] and Time [X]

• If assembly/build time looks to extend past Time [X] they may have no need to yet advance a new batch of VIN regs

• If assembly/build time looks to complete before Time [X], they may need to start a new Day [0‘] with respect to new batch of VINS for next planned builds before Time [Y]


With respect to the initial VINs obtained on Day [1], if things go as planned towards time [X], an increasing number of those VINs relate to an actually built truck prior to or equal to Time [X]. And these VINS may not be built in sequence.


Or as Bloomberg puts it, eg:

“Note: VINs aren’t produced in perfect sequence. Reported VINs always exceed actual production.”

“Methodology: Car companies register new batches of VINs before previous batches are depleted…”

“we gathered batches of VINs that Tesla registers with safety regulators prior to production (Registered VINs Model)…. [which is]very forward looking. It served as a rough gauge of how much production Tesla anticipated in the near future”

 

[greggertruck]

So are you saying you don't think these VINs are built yet, @cvalue13

 

[newwave1331]

VINs 647-652 (AWD +6) are active now.... weren't a couple of hours ago.

 

[newwave1331]

No

There is ~a gap even between registering the VIN and starting assembly, which batches of VINs are obtained in advance of assembly on a rolling basis.

That gap could be big (weeks) or small (hours), in theory.

At a cartoon level (as sophisticated as my understanding runs):

• On Day [0] Tesla has line-of-sight on how many builds (of either trim) it intends/is capable of completing before Time [x]

• On day [1] Tesla then generates/registers VINs in anticipation of the assemblies to begin before and complete by Time [X]

• Tesla, VINs “in hand” then turns to actually executing assembly/build completion between Day [1] and Time [X]

• If assembly/build time looks to extend past Time [X] they may have no need to yet advance a new batch of VIN regs

• If assembly/build time looks to complete before Time [X], they may need to start a new Day [0‘] with respect to new batch of VINS for next planned builds before Time [Y]


With respect to the initial VINs obtained on Day [1], if things go as planned towards time [X], an increasing number of those VINs relate to an actually built truck prior to or equal to Time [X]. And these VINS may not be built in sequence.


Or as Bloomberg puts it, eg:

“Note: VINs aren’t produced in perfect sequence. Reported VINs always exceed actual production.”

“Methodology: Car companies register new batches of VINs before previous batches are depleted…”

“we gathered batches of VINs that Tesla registers with safety regulators prior to production (Registered VINs Model)…. [which is]very forward looking. It served as a rough gauge of how much production Tesla anticipated in the near future”

I have faith in your intel, but if you are basing it on Bloomberg or any other MSM........recalling all Teslas!

 

[cvalue13]

Let's see what Brads flight is like today too. See how the overlayed end of line image looks comparatively and the outbound lot.

the Bras/Joe flights give us helpful info, but limited to:

(1) any only 1-2hr snapshot of only 1-2days in a 7 day week, and

(2) of truck that are (A), built, (B) outside (instead of potentially large holdings inside)

(3) of those snapshots, if not in the outbound lot, can’t be confident where they are headed

(4) if in the outbound lot, can be moderately confident they’re headed to some customer


At a global level this data over a long enough period of time can tell us the limited info that either “few” or “many” are leaving GFTX headed probably to customers.

But beyond that very global view over long periods of time, the flight snapshots tell us almost nothing material to eg production in a day, week, or even month

Tesla can store thousands of trucks inside, and for weeks delivery only a couple a day, or which we would see only 2 days, if during the hours of flight.

Or, Tesla could delivery that very same couple a day, and those be the total trucks assembled in the past 3 months.


The flyovers simply tell us nothing more or less than “at least when there were flyovers, Tesla appears to be shipping more this [week] than last [week]


Case in point: flyover shows 30 trucks outside, and xwitter says “they’re building 30 a day”

when via the VIN registrations (plus), know that since mid-November they’ve built less than 220 units (7/day) on average.

But we have no way to know if 150 of those were built in the last week.

 

[cvalue13]

So are you saying you don't think these VINs are built yet, @cvalue13

no, I’m saying not all of them are built yet, and we can’t know how many have been to date or will be instead built after today.

VIN registrations always preceded and exceed the number of vehicles that have begun assembly.

The VIN registration figures are the best information we can possibly have (before a quarterly disclosure by Tesla), until we can begin to also capture some VINs being delivered to customers.

Even though VINs registered are the best data we have, the data only tells us the total number of vehicles Tesla plans to have built by some uncertain future date (through in the nearish future)

On any day given day, like today, we can take the total number of registered VINs (~220) and say only:

• as of today, Tesla has built less than ~220 units

• buy some date in the nearish future, Tesla plans to have built ~220 total

• that “nearish future” plan could be a week from now, or a month from now

• that plan could turn out to be wrong in either direction - they could complete thr builds sooner than expected, or later than expected

• however, if Tesla registers a new batch of VINs, we can safely assume the plan has materialized one way or the other, as they’re looking towards the next ‘near future’ batch



Put differently, VIN registrations is most directly an indication of Tesla’s trajectory in its plans for production over a nearish period of time. If in each of 5 successive weeks they register 20 VINs, they are probably going slower than if in each of 5 successive weeks they register 50 VINs.



ONE LAST POINT:

A VIN will be matched to a successfully completed truck.

Tesla could be misfiring on 2 out of three builds, and so VINs attaching to only 1/3 of what Tesla is *attempting* to build.

(not that it’s a completed but bad truck, but if a rolling chassis assigned VIN #X gets halfway down the line before it’s yanked for a quality control issue, then that chassis goes away and the same VIN #X gets assigned to a new build just starting the line.)

 

[newwave1331]

(not that it’s a completed but bad truck, but if a rolling chassis assigned VIN #X gets halfway down the line before it’s yanked for a quality control issue, then that chassis goes away and the same VIN #X gets assigned to a new build just starting the line.)

Is would explain why 4, 8, and 12 were skipped of the first group I found but became active later on.

 

[cvalue13]

I have faith in your intel, but if you are basing it on Bloomberg or any other MSM........recalling all Teslas!

In this instance:

(1) Bloomberg’s model (once supplemented with customer-reported VINs) was pretty damn good (until international production/shipping began)

(2) Bloomberg isn’t taking a position, they’re just describing the basics of the process

(3) the VIN number is attached to the vehicles being assembled in any number of locations (motors, hoods, fenders, etc.) so having a VIN prior to starting assembly is practically speaking needed (the VIN attachments are part of assembly)

(4) the VIN is a vehicles DNA code, and as the vehicle goes down the line identifies which job related to that vehicle - if I don’t know, I truck is found to have a misapplied windshield, they can go back and see what that machine was doing when it built that specific unit

so they need a legit vin on hand in advance of starting an assembly

 

[newwave1331]

Total New VINs for 12/19:
41 AWD (#630-670)
42 AWD (#630-670, 88)

The following is a list of when each vin became active on the recall website. All times are in central standard time (Austin, TX)

#630-641 by 9:41AM
#642-643 at 10:07 AM
#644-646 at 10:41 AM
#647-652 at 12:40 PM
#653 at 1:20 PM
#654-659 at 3:18 PM
#660-661 at 3:37 PM
#662-665 at 4:35 PM
#666 at 5:06 PM
#667-669 at 5:36 PM
#670 at 6:06PM

#88 picked up on overnight scan

 

[greggertruck]

Two things. Just gotten eyes on 19 trucks, there will be aerial of them soon too though, they’re outside.

And, this Tesla employee took delivery of VIN 448 yesterday in the Bay Area.

 

[newwave1331]

Two things. Just gotten eyes on 19 trucks, there will be aerial of them soon too though, they’re outside.

And, this Tesla employee took delivery of VIN 448 yesterday in the Bay Area.

I dont have the exact date that one became active but I found it on 12/4. It probably takes 4 days to transport from Austin to the Bay Area.

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