Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[newwave1331]

something odd about this

can’t put finger on it

As a sample, when did you first capture 505?

505 was active before I was nailing down inactive scans vs active. 528 is the start of multiple scans to nail down dates. I just send you some details to see if you find a flaw in the system.

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[cvalue13]

505 was active before I was nailing down inactive scans vs active. 528 is the start of multiple scans to nail down dates. I just send you some details to see if you find a flaw in the system.

not a flaw in the system, but instead a potential distortion in the info due to possible timing bias

by timing bias, I mean that it’s possible that naturally we’re seeing the fastest times first - and not until later will we see the slowest times


and I do think it’s possible that right now there is a distortion. In that I think builds are going from VIN registration to delivery in widely different timeframes - and we’re not yet seeing the slow ones.



but, time will tell as members begin receiving deliveries and reporting their VINs a

 

[newwave1331]

not a flaw in the system, but instead a potential distortion in the info due to possible timing bias

by timing bias, I mean that it’s possible that naturally we’re seeing the fastest times first - and not until later will we see the slowest times


and I do think it’s possible that right now there is a distortion. In that I think builds are going from VIN registration to delivery in widely different timeframes - and we’re not yet seeing the slow ones.



but, time will tell as members begin receiving deliveries and reporting their VINs a

Yeah, there are still a lot of VINs active before the Mesa, Portland and Austin units and i have not seen a proportional amount of deliveries (at least on X). I wonder what percentage of them will be just written off completely vs waiting for adjustments/revised parts. I thought they would have had more of it straightened out with the MCs but maybe as more of the line became automated it caused some hiccups. This points to VINs not becoming active at the end of line/final signoff but rather at the start of the line.

 

[cvalue13]

Hey @newwave1331

what were the VIN numbers of the last tranche we’ve seen registered?

At this point I’m starting to find it more likely that the algo/tracking is off than that Tesla hasn’t registered more

it was one thing when they weren’t registering through the days of Christmas

but tomorrow will be 2 weeks, and that seems suspiciously incorrect

 

[newwave1331]

Hey @newwave1331

what were the VIN numbers of the last tranche we’ve seen registered?

At this point I’m starting to find it more likely that the algo/tracking is off than that Tesla hasn’t registered more

it was one thing when they weren’t registering through the days of Christmas

but tomorrow will be 2 weeks, and that seems suspiciously incorrect

Have faith. Ill update at the end of today.

 

[cvalue13]

Have faith. Ill update at the end of today.

picking up what you’re setting down

 

[newwave1331]

New VINs for 1/2/24:
21 AWD (#724-744)

After 10 days of no new vin activations, we got 21 new ones today. We saw a good amount of the ones staged in the lots get moved off site in the last couple of days so I think finalizing the units outside was the priority over 'winter break'.

 

[greggertruck]

New VINs for 1/2/23:
21 AWD (#724-744)

After 10 days of no new vin activations, we got 21 new ones today. We saw a good amount of the ones staged in the lots get moved off site in the last couple of days so I think finalizing the units outside was the priority over 'winter break'.





https://t.co/ULBIiw6pwM

Auto bots roll out! The employee lot looked packed today too.

I'm sure there's still some talent trickling back to work, but most everyone seems "back" today!

 

[cvalue13]

After 10 days of no new vin activations, we got 21 new ones today.

interesting bit to this:

if during the lull we assume Tesla caught up with and completed (including transport prep)all prior VINs registered, then…

subject only to that assumption, we can now confidently say that in 2023 Tesla completed builds of 352 total Cybertrucks (all FS) intended for deliveries.

And as for Beasts:

• Only 26 were Beasts (7%)
• ~20 were delivered in connection with the Delivery Event (on camera, off camera, and delivered remotely), ~1/2 of those Beasts

Other points for the record:

• In 2023, units were delivered only to employees / VIPs (ie folks who might qualify as marketing-related deliveries)
• While 352 were built, it seems the ~majority of those are still at GFTX and not yet delivered

 

[Gurule92]

interesting bit to this:

if during the lull we assume Tesla caught up with and completed (including transport prep)all prior VINs registered, then…

subject only to that assumption, we can now confidently say that in 2024 Tesla completed builds of 352 total Cybertrucks (all FS) intended for deliveries.

And as for Beasts:

• Only 26 were Beasts (7%)
• ~20 were delivered in connection with the Delivery Event (on camera, off camera, and delivered remotely), ~1/2 of those Beasts

Other points for the record:

• In 2024, units were delivered only to employees / VIPs (ie folks who might qualify as marketing-related deliveries)
• While 352 were built, it seems the ~majority of those are still at GFTX and not yet delivered

in 2024 they completed 352?

 

[cvalue13]

in 2024 they completed 352?

ffs
I’ve been doing that for a month ?

 

[Gurule92]

ffs
I’ve been doing that for a month ?

i keep catching it lol

 

[newwave1331]

New VINs for 1/3/24:
51 AWD (#745-795)
Tomorrow & Friday should will be interesting as we approach VIN 801. VINs 801-906 were used for MCs. Maybe we will get a few beasts tomorrow.

 

[cvalue13]

51 AWD (#745-795)

if we hypothetically saw a good stretch of say two weeks worth of ~50 VINs a day, that would suggest they are possibly backfilling VINs at roughly the same day rate as they’re producing them. And I could believe a 50 unit/day rate (of AWD) soon-ish (though I could also equally believe it’s lower).

50/day is an annual run rate of 17,000 trucks (assuming 25 days/yr of downtime).

(In those assumption, reaching line capacity of 125K/yr run rate would instead look like 370 VINs registered/day)


This 50/day ViN hypo isn’t what we’re seeing here yet, but mentioned only to scope in very rough terms the sort of annual run rate we’d be seeing if it were (no reason to believe that at present - VIN reg’s are still very choppy).

 

[Wraven]

New VINs for 1/3/24:
51 AWD (#745-795)
Tomorrow & Friday should will be interesting as we approach VIN 801. VINs 801-906 were used for MCs. Maybe we will get a few beasts tomorrow.

Very selfishly rooting for some Cyberbeasts Vins to start popping!

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