Current Cybertruck Production Rate - Hourly, Weekly?

[bkane808]

So how many CT are actually being produced now? Per week?

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[rbalkun]

I’m betting on 50 a day

 

[VR Driving]

According to Joe, about 4 per hour.

 

[CYBEAST]

According to the drone videos, it looks like they are still testing the beast. Only delivering AWD models to the transit trucks and trains.

 

[cvalue13]

According to the drone videos, it looks like they are still testing the beast. Only delivering AWD models to the transit trucks and trains.

Nice PFP ? (my photo)

 

[cvalue13]

So how many CT are actually being produced now? Per week?

we don’t know exactly how many are being *built*

our best indication comes from the VIN activations and pace, which is being detailed on the VIN tracking thread

Which most recent data as of the time of this post looks like this:

These are VIN activations, so the total number of VINs activated as of a given date will always exceed the number of CTs that have been completed as of that given date.

Meanwhile, there’s an inherent problem in currently asking “how many are being built each week” this early in the ramp

This early in the ramp, build rates are choppy and asymmetrical.

They’re choppy because the number in a week can go materially up or down compared to the prior week, even if the trend line across many weeks is upwards.

They’re asymmetrical because this early in the ramp a truck coming off the line does not mean it is near completed for delivery. At this stage in the ramp, a truck coming off the line has to be thoroughly checked for conformity, and potentially be subject to repairs, corrections, and adjustment. Accordingly, just because 50 trucks come off the line in one day, it does not mean all 50 will be ready for transport in equal amounts of time. A few may get checked, be perfect, and out for transport in a matter of days. A few may come off the line, need significant correction, and still not be ready for transport for weeks. Others somewhere in between.



Which is one of many reasons that estimates by Joe etc are all inherently flawed and misleading. Watching the transport lot, etc., tells us only what is ready for transport, not what is being built. Tesla *could* be building 1,000/day, storing them inside, but not wanting to ship any yet. Or they could be building/completing 10 a day, and putting them all in the transport lot. Both situations will look identical if only viewing the transport lot. After all, those folks have been saying “production” started since back in June, which is patently incorrect.



People are too quickly trying to view CT builds as though this thing is in true production yet.

This is early ramp. View it as such.

And VIN activations are imperfect but the best and only objective data on which to gain insight to how the ramp is going.

 

[cvalue13]

I’m betting on 50 a day

it’s totally plausible that *some days* they’re building 50 on the line

but that doesn’t mean they’re doing it every day yet, nor that the 50 that come off the line are complete and correct

but for scope, if we assume 50/day and complete/correct off the line, that’s an annual production rate of 17,000 trucks total

 

[bkane808]

we don’t know exactly how many are being *built*

our best indication comes from the VIN activations and pace, which is being detailed on the VIN tracking thread

Which most recent data as of the time of this post looks like this:

These are VIN activations, so the total number of VINs activated as of a given date will always exceed the number of CTs that have been completed as of that given date.

Meanwhile, there’s an inherent problem in currently asking “how many are being built each week” this early in the ramp

This early in the ramp, build rates are choppy and asymmetrical.

They’re choppy because the number in a week can go materially up or down compared to the prior week, even if the trend line across many weeks is upwards.

They’re asymmetrical because this early in the ramp a truck coming off the line does not mean it is near completed for delivery. At this stage in the ramp, a truck coming off the line has to be thoroughly checked for conformity, and potentially be subject to repairs, corrections, and adjustment. Accordingly, just because 50 trucks come off the line in one day, it does not mean all 50 will be ready for transport in equal amounts of time. A few may get checked, be perfect, and out for transport in a matter of days. A few may come off the line, need significant correction, and still not be ready for transport for weeks. Others somewhere in between.



Which is one of many reasons that estimates by Joe etc are all inherently flawed and misleading. Watching the transport lot, etc., tells us only what is ready for transport, not what is being built. Tesla *could* be building 1,000/day, storing them inside, but not wanting to ship any yet. Or they could be building/completing 10 a day, and putting them all in the transport lot. Both situations will look identical if only viewing the transport lot. After all, those folks have been saying “production” started since back in June, which is patently incorrect.



People are too quickly trying to view CT builds as though this thing is in true production yet.

This is early ramp. View it as such.

And VIN activations are imperfect but the best and only objective data on which to gain insight to how the ramp is going.

you definitely sound informative and appreciate your comments. My number is around 40k and am hopeful and excited with anticipation.

 

[bkane808]

Do you work at TESLA?

 

[Gurule92]

Nice PFP ? (my photo)

You forget to wipe your lens? Lol

 

[cvalue13]

You forget to wipe your lens? Lol

actually, while it appears that way, 90% that is a haze of grey dust from the gravel road we were on

we’d just done a full lock turn in 4X, and the ATs stirred up a cloud not yet settled by the time I hopped out for the pic

maybe also some smudge/drool on the lens

 

[Fleetwood75]

I heard that currently each one is lovingly handcrafted by an expert builder named Robert. Photo below of the Cybertruck he's working on today. I’m guessing maybe 1 per week if we don’t rush him

 

[CYBEAST]

Nice PFP ? (my photo)

lol. I was looking for a pic with the lightbar and saw yours. You want me to remove it?

 

[cvalue13]

lol. I was looking for a pic with the lightbar and saw yours. You want me to remove it?

no! I don’t mind one bit

 

[Woodrick]

it’s totally plausible that *some days* they’re building 50 on the line

but that doesn’t mean they’re doing it every day yet, nor that the 50 that come off the line are complete and correct

but for scope, if we assume 50/day and complete/correct off the line, that’s an annual production rate of 17,000 trucks total

And if it is 17,000 trucks this year, LOTS of people are going to get fired. By end of year, they need to be shipping more than that per month.

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