Current Cybertruck Production Rate - Hourly, Weekly?

[cvalue13]

And if it is 17,000 trucks this year, LOTS of people are going to get fired.

that’s not how ramps work

By end of year, they need to be shipping more than that per month.

that’s not how this ramp will work

2024 line capacity is 125K/yr, or 10K/mo

and there’s been no talk from Tesla about achieving 2024 capacity max in 2024

the only stake in ground by Tesla is to have and achieve a 250K/yr (or 20K/mo) run rate sometime in 2025

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[Woodrick]

that’s not how ramps work




that’s not how this ramp will work

2024 line capacity is 125K/yr, or 10K/mo

and there’s been no talk from Tesla about achieving 2024 capacity max in 2024

the only stake in ground by Tesla is to have and achieve a 250K/yr (or 20K/mo) run rate sometime in 2025

I believe that that is your opinion, not fact.


It's okay if I have a different opinion.

 

[charliemagpie]

Space is I think an issue for now.
More trucks to take them offsite quicker, more staff etc will help. But, the current logistic/dispatch area isn't geared IMO for both high-volume CT and Model Y production.

If we want to know when CT production will reach over 1000 per week... just look across the road, and when that area is ready, so will high volume be ready to begin in earnest.

BTW, Tesla seems to spend money on a timely basis, and the completion of the new dispatch area will coincide with the need to handle high volume.

 

[Mini2nut]

With the lack of a conventional paint shop, offering only one Crew Cab body style and only offering only 3 trim levels will accelerate volume production.

I feel the Mr. Musk was sandbagging the 12 - 18 month timeline before volume production kicks in. Not running every single Cybertruck through a paint shop saves a huge amount of manufacturing and paint correction time.

 

[cvalue13]

I believe that that is your opinion, not fact.


It's okay if I have a different opinion.

Neither are my opinion, both are facts.



You didn’t express an ‘opinion,’ you expressed a misunderstanding then an unsupported falsehood.

How run rates work?

i relayed that if they’re producing 50/day, that equates to a 17K run rate​

you responded something like ‘if they only build 17k this year people will get fired’​

​

I didn’t say they were only building 17k this year.​

No such thing as an ‘opinion’ that you don’t understand run rates.​

Tesla’s and Musk’s explicit and documented statements on the 2024/2025 line capacity and run rate aspiration?

Go dig up the Q3 investor deck (which says 2024 line capacity is 125k) and transcript (where Musk says they won’t reach 250K until sometime in 2025). What I said earlier is a fact.​

I guess you can have an ‘opinion’ that neither a Tesla nor Musk know their own line capacity or run rate aspirations.​

At some point an ‘opinion’ is just ignorance + stubbornness masquerading as reasoned thought.

No, you don’t get to have an ‘opinion’ that Tesla and Musk didn’t say what they said, nor that run rates/math work differently for you.

 

[Alan]

Looking at the last weeks factory videos the run rate appears to 0.

 

[cvalue13]

Not running every single Cybertruck through a paint shop saves a huge amount of manufacturing and paint correction time.

eventually it might

but something this concept, often repeated, fails to understand: as much time as paint takes, it simultaneously takes pressure off the time and accuracy of other processes.

so you can’t just delete the time paint takes, and assume the other time/accuracy tasks stay the same.

just one example is musks “sub-10 micron” comment.

he wasn’t talking most about panel alignment, he was talking most about the confiormity of the panels themselves

“Due to the nature of Cybertruck, which is made of bright metal with mostly straight edges, any dimensional variation shows up like a sore thumb.”

Because there’s no paint, which acts like a liquid leveler of small imperfections, time and effort has to be spent instead on forming and correcting the panels themselves.


So yes, maybe once the processes are so developed and dialed in that results in a net positive of time. But it’s net, not gross.

And right now, they’re wrestling with producing a vehicle with no paint, not basking in the free time of not having to paint.

 

[VR Driving]

BTW, Tesla seems to spend money on a timely basis, and the completion of the new dispatch area will coincide with the need to handle high volume.

That is what perfect planning and execution look like.

 

[SparkChaser]

eventually it might

but something this concept, often repeated, fails to understand: as much time as paint takes, it simultaneously takes pressure off the time and accuracy of other processes.

so you can’t just delete the time paint takes, and assume the other time/accuracy tasks stay the same.

just one example is musks “sub-10 micron” comment.

he wasn’t talking most about panel alignment, he was talking most about the confiormity of the panels themselves

“Due to the nature of Cybertruck, which is made of bright metal with mostly straight edges, any dimensional variation shows up like a sore thumb.”

Because there’s no paint, which acts like a liquid leveler of small imperfections, time and effort has to be spent instead on forming and correcting the panels themselves.


So yes, maybe once the processes are so developed and dialed in that results in a net positive of time. But it’s net, not gross.

And right now, they’re wrestling with producing a vehicle with no paint, not basking in the free time of not having to paint.

Most of this attention to detail will be at layout and cutting. Post forming will also have a quality check more rigorous than that for panels that go on to be painted.

I agree with the principle of net gain. It should be a substantial gain nine the less.

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