Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[cvalue13]

But all I did here was say " largest weekly possible production so far."

yes, that’s all you said. Nothing more.

and in response, all that was said was:

it’s not production

it’s VIN registrations

maybe catch up with the first 14 pages of the thread

which is a clarification that is important to the content of this thread

we’ve here gone to great lengths to make and stay clear about what VIN activation data does and does not mean

if we make conjectures regarding how VIN activations may relate to production at a given time, we describe the content and purpose of those conjectures clearly

so when you inject not just any conjecture, but the central and most potentially confusing brand of conjecture that is important to the clarity of this thread, expect to get a response that makes clear it’s conjecture




(meanwhile, pro tip: you’re also still continuing to not understand a deeper subtext to this thread and it’s contents. Which deeper subtext is well understood by the people following it closely. As a result, many of quips and retorts about how your conjecture is as good as anyone else’s here, are unwittingly embarrassing yourself. People here *do* often know when you’re wrong, or have relatively zero basis.


Again, you would do well to do more listening and asking questions of the folks who have been here for months and years doing this work, rather than being an unjustifiably cocksure and vocal member with only 6 days of context, and where half of your MANY posts are merely exclaiming how you know as much as anyone else.)

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[Coolbreeze704]

f me I knew id Seen it but ?

I’m blaming how it’s tiny



So there’s a total either missing (in the last) or not yet inactivated (in the future) of 634

Add that to the activated to date of 456

And it equals 1,090

now you see what I’m driving at?



00000-1199, minus the 110 MC builds leaves us with ~1,090 builds before the “normal” showroom non-FS units


which is why they skipped to 1200 for the non-FS showroom builds … they didn’t want the non-FS showroom builds hogging valuable early VIN numbers that should be allotted to ‘Founders Edition’ builds

So why 1,090?

They were space left over for possible MC builds. Notice they ended up building 110. But they can’t know how many MCs will be needed, depending on how things go. But they went well enough that they ended up only using 110 of an allotted 200 spaces for MCs



meanwhile, of the 1,000VINs allotted for FS, it leaves the following questions and answers:

25-51 (or 25 missing)
71-420 (or 349 missing)

Im willing to bet that with the first 50 valuable VINs, Tesla wanted them all to be Cyberbeasts (with the one exception of #4, who is a real big-wig that wanted instead an AWD but still wanted their top-5 VIN).

the missing 25 in these first 50 are only missing because they know they can’t yet build that block of 25 Beasts (due to parts constraints), so they’ll later come back and activate before they build them for the big-wigs who are getting their sub-50 VIN beast

next you have the 329 missing between 71-349, same deal: they wanted some early AWDs vins (51-70), but then again more Beasts (71-349) but they can’t get to (meanwhile while 88, 99, were sought after VINs by someone who wanted their trucks sooner, so they opted to use their VIN slot to just get an AWD instead).

similarly, someone wanted specifically Beast VIN “911” - who was VIP enough to have it built out of sequence (ie they would have otherwise been VIN 22, but for wanting 911).


on these ~assumptions, look at the ~blend you get out of the 1,000 FS VINs looking only at missing+activated (not pending)

Basically, to date 50+330 = 370 Beasts have been either built (~26) or reserved (~350) for future low-VIN Beast builds

While to date, 430 AWD have been built (because they don’t need to reserve the VIN, they can just build in sequence)


Point being, I think in the current landscape we’re seeing a combo of:

• indirect evidence of the plan for 1,000 FS
• indirect evidence of the Beast parts constraints, but still wanting to have low-VIN beasts once built, resulting in the apparent ‘gaps’
• in-between (after 800), were 200 MC slots (only 110 needed used ultimately)

The ‘extra’ 90 VINs could in theory be ‘put back in’ before reaching the 1200

If unit 1001 will be the first non-FS retail buikd, it should be the vin that is 90 before 1200, or 1091




if I wasn’t so sleepy, I could have said all this much better ?

Feel like this was a game of Clue. Professor Plum in the Library with the candlestick.

Does this also give weight to the high amount of CT OWNERS that actually follow the site and registered their purchase on the "Order List"?

 

[cvalue13]

Does this also give weight to the high amount of CT OWNERS that actually follow the site and registered their purchase on the "Order List"?

yea, I think our order list is actually a very thorough capture of the vast majority of FS orders to date

again, I think there’s a surprisingly large overlap between the people who had early enough pre-orders, who are checking their accounts regularly to see an invite, or who get an invite and go looking for info and find this site, etc.

And meanwhile that it surely helps that a few folks on xwitter, the other big sink for people following CT / looking for info about invites they received, are being pointed to the order tracking thread


not to suggest of course that EVERY order is here - afterall, Musk, Franz, etc., haven’t chimed in with their orders (nor have many of the Nov 30 delivery event people).

But knowing what we know over the past couple of weeks, I think our order tracking thread has a remarkably high capture rate





Which by the way, correlates to a potentially low conversion rate

EDIT TO ADD: may be interesting if someone took the member names from the order list, and charted out their membership start date, or how often they’ve posted since a long ago stale join date. I suspect there’s be a large chunk that joined to add to the list, and /or circled back around for the first time in a long while to add to the list.

 

[Ward L]

I will admit that I have made a few mistakes in some posts. Sometime my treasure chest of information doesn't regurgitate things correctly. And there are also the problem with so many numbers changing on a daily basis (like the Silverado range). And with all of the off-topic threads, it is nearly impossible to follow one.

But all I did here was say " largest weekly possible production so far."

I still think that it may be a fair representation. It may even be a realistic production number. I don't know, but I'm pretty sure that no one here knows that I'm wrong.

It's only a little statement, that as some believe, customer production may be starting this week. After all, they have suggested that cars will be delivered within the next 4 weeks.

Yep, my bad. I should have not said anything.

 

[Bkb13]

again, I think there’s a surprisingly large overlap between the people who had early enough pre-orders, who are checking their accounts regularly to see an invite, or who get an invite and go looking for info and find this site, etc

Which by the way, correlates to a potentially low conversion rate

Ok, you have my attention. The pretense that I read here is that you are NOT guessing. That would be an extremely low conversion rate for sure…

 

[Phones And Drones]

Welp everyone....Next week we are back to the first full "work" week of the year. I am hoping we see some more ramping and VINs being assigned. I think it is going to be a telling week! At least I hope...for some of us to receive deliveries this month!

 

[SixZo]

Welp everyone....Next week we are back to the first full "work" week of the year. I am hoping we see some more ramping and VINs being assigned. I think it is going to be a telling week! At least I hope...for some of us to receive deliveries this month!

Really hoping the Cyberbeast that gets assigned to my order gets built next week!

 

[cvalue13]

Really hoping the Cyberbeast that gets assigned to my order gets built next week!

my last few posts about the inactivated VINs reserved for Beasts, are pregnant with a point that current beast orders should watch for

note that VIN’s 25-50 are reserved for beast builds. Typically, those low VINs are reserved for Tesla big-wigs and super-VIPs.

accordingly, there’s to me a question of whether and when Tesla will start building Beasts for us plebeians.

it could be that the invite’s initially stated “early 2024” and then “mid to late 2024” had the subtext of, “because for a while we’ll still be building Beasts for big-wigs and VIPs”

Alternatively, what would be interesting is if we start to see a few Beast VINs activate in BOTH the lower VIN big-wig territory, AND the higher plebeian VIN territory. That is, whether Tesla takes an egalitarian sort of “one for us, one for you” approach to Beast VIN activation/builds.

otherwise, I’m sorry to say that while we might start to see some Beast VINs activated, Tesla may still have to get through quite a few of the Beast low VINs for big-wigs/VIPs.

That would be bad news for Beast order members here, and I wouldn’t want the discussion to be taken as piling on.

Instead, it’s about noting the possibility, tempering timing expectations, and potentially informing important decision-making.

 

[cvalue13]

Ok, you have my attention. The pretense that I read here is that you are NOT guessing. That would be an extremely low conversion rate for sure…

well, it would only be a low conversion rate if Tesla has sent out a LOT of invites.

I do *not* have any info on the total number of invites sent to date, but it’s ‘potentially’ low if in fact Tesla has sent out a LOT of invites while to date they’ve only taken <1,000 FS orders.


conversely, the info I do have involves the notion that 1,000 FS are planned (with an asterisk), that the 000000-001200 (minus 200 MC builds) does reflect the fact of this 1,000 FS plan, and that between 000000-001200 the gaps we currently see are reserved for Beast builds that they haven’t been able to get through yet.

 

[Kayron648]

my last few posts about the inactivated VINs reserved for Beasts, are pregnant with a point that current beast orders should watch for

note that VIN’s 25-50 are reserved for beast builds. Typically, those low VINs are reserved for Tesla big-wigs and super-VIPs.

accordingly, there’s to me a question of whether and when Tesla will start building Beasts for us plebeians.

it could be that the invite’s initially stated “early 2024” and then “mid to late 2024” had the subtext of, “because for a while we’ll still be building Beasts for big-wigs and VIPs”

Alternatively, what would be interesting is if we start to see a few Beast VINs activate in BOTH the lower VIN big-wig territory, AND the higher plebeian VIN territory. That is, whether Tesla takes an egalitarian sort of “one for us, one for you” approach to Beast VIN activation/builds.

otherwise, I’m sorry to say that while we might start to see some Beast VINs activated, Tesla may still have to get through quite a few of the Beast low VINs for big-wigs/VIPs.

That would be bad news for Beast order members here, and I wouldn’t want the discussion to be taken as piling on.

Instead, it’s about noting the possibility, tempering timing expectations, and potentially informing important decision-making.

Really hope nobody is shooting the messenger for providing data and theories! For whatever it’s worth, as a beast reservation holder who ordered with the “early 2024” expectation, I assumed the worst and hope for the best! For context, had a Tesla roadster 2.0 order and the lack of information but reading between the tea leaves lead to pulling the money back and taking it elsewhere. At least in this case, whatever the inferences are, they are based on SOME data and nobody should be angry at the assumptions made. In the mean time, this is entertaining and informative and scratching the nerd itch.

Anecdotally - the route I walk my dogs on was a frequent spot I saw an RC candidate and speculated that an engineer /vip lived out that way (this is in Fremont- up the road literally- from the factory)

today saw an unbranded - no “RC” marking with a light bar coming down the same street

speculating that at least some vips are taking their beasts home ??‍

 

[newwave1331]

No new VINs today after a full scan. They must be normally on a 4 day work week (at least with activating VINs) with Monday being off for new years. Ill be expecting a continuation of AWD at 939+ but also be polling 26-30 for cyberbeast just incase they surprise us with a couple (to VIPs).

Totally agree with @cvalue13 's theory on extremely small amounts of cyberbeast for special clients.

 

[Wraven]

@cvalue13

Since this thread seems open to some levels of inductive and deductive reasoning. This may seem like a tangent, but I think it possibly supports the 1k limit in a very esoteric way.

Inductive Data Points:

• The Foundation series trucks are inspired by the Book series written by Isaac Asimov.
• Elon and/or Tesla tends to go deep with Easter eggs and deeper contextual meanings.
• The *rumor* is Foundation Series is one of Elons favorite books.

Hypothesis:

• There is possibly number patterns prevalent in the Foundation Series books that relate to patterns Tesla may adopt.

Conclusion:

• The Foundation Series is known for its emphasis on mathematical and statistical principles as key elements in the narrative.
• Certain numbers and concepts play a significant role in the storyline, especially the mathematical and predictive aspects related to "psychohistory," a fictional branch of mathematics developed by the character Hari Seldon.
• The number "5" is often associated with the Seldon Plan, which is the overarching plan designed to minimize the inevitable dark age following the fall of the Galactic Empire. The plan is divided into different "Seldon Crises," each with a set timeline and predicted outcomes.
• The number "1,000" holds significance, as it represents the approximate duration of the planned dark age before the emergence of the Second Galactic Empire.

 

[cvalue13]

This may seem like a tangent, but I think it possibly supports the 1k limit in a very esoteric way.

I like it!

no doubt that Musk/Tesla have made bigger decisions based on less

 

[TXCYBRTK]

Since this thread seems open to some levels of inductive and deductive reasoning. This may seem like a tangent, but I think it possibly supports the 1k limit in a very esoteric way.

Ok so this is the kind of value I appreciate on this forum/thread. As I have said before this particular VIN thread is the most important thread on this site. Mainly because it focuses on actual Tesla data. The Isaac Asimov correlation though in your comment is on another level. And very appropriate. Thanks for the insight. Now back to checking my Tesla app every minute for an FS VIN assignment. (checked ... still nada. )

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