Cybertruck Order Charts: Geography, Model Type, Options, RNs Ordered (Final Update 2/20/2024)

[Alan]

I thought they were going to back fill all the lower res#s first. I guess I thought wrong.

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[Cybertruck 1974]

Wow, seem like FS invites won't stop at 11285xxx, it will just keep going and going.

and going and going and going until all orders from 2019 are asked.

 

[Bathbunny]

interesting break-out, thank you

basically, cash-wise people have chosen between:

(A) a beast with speed (and guaranteed $120K price at delivery), vs

(B) an AWD, with the future option to pay for more range (with $100K due at delivery, and if they choose in future to go through with the ER another $16K)


in other words, it’s not just “do you want speed or range”, it’s “do you want speed @ $120K now, or instead to spend only 100K now, but but pay $500 for an option to buy more range latter”

Low sample rate, but 2 surprises

1. The extremely high proportion of FSD orders. (Albeit to the mostly converted)

2. AWD Range extender outpacing TRI...
Figures the AWD has less range to start with, but those customers chose not to spend extra on TRI .. But have enough money for the RE.

Interesting to see the numbers after 100,000 sales. FSD(clearly) and RE(surprisingly) coul be CT Gold.

FSD is included in the Foundation series, which is all that's going to ship for at least 4-5mos.
(Indeed, invitations up to today -- Feb 15 -- are for Foundation series only, AWD or Beast).
So 100% of early owners of CTs will have FSD, but it does not mean that they really wanted it -- they may just have considered it part of the price to pay to be an early owner.
I got my invitation to configure and order, but delayed my order because I do *not* want FSD ;-)

 

[Ward L]

The FSD option stopped me from ordering on 12/8 as I have it on my M3 and it is not a finished product yet. I convinced myself Tesla was going to go through the list of 2 million reservations offering FSCT before selling non-FSCTs. I ordered a FSCT on 12/31 because I didn't want to wait. Ironically, I heard Elon say the FSD development on the CT is a low priority after I ordered. I look at it as a premium to pay for a CT in 2024. Why wouldn't Tesla offer a FSCT to everyone who wanted one? Tesla will sell only FSCT until the factory can produce more CT than they have FSCT orders for.

 

[evnow]

The FSD option stopped me from ordering on 12/8 as I have it on my M3 and it is not a finished product yet. I convinced myself Tesla was going to go through the list of 2 million reservations offering FSCT before selling non-FSCTs. I ordered a FSCT on 12/31 because I didn't want to wait. Ironically, I heard Elon say the FSD development on the CT is a low priority after I ordered. I look at it as a premium to pay for a CT in 2024. Why wouldn't Tesla offer a FSCT to everyone who wanted one? Tesla will sell only FSCT until the factory can produce more CT than they have FSCT orders for.

There are atleast a few senior managers in Tesla whose job depends on ramping up CT production, so that Elon can show some progress to investors. Thats why we will not see slow roll out of FSCT to 2 million reservation holders.

 

[Ward L]

There are atleast a few senior managers in Tesla whose job depends on ramping up CT production, so that Elon can show some progress to investors. Thats why we will not see slow roll out of FSCT to 2 million reservation holders.

I said nothing of a "slow roll" of FSCT. I believe Tesla will build and sell as many FSCT as soon as they can. If that is true, they won't stop making FSCT until demand drops off. Do you think Tesla will voluntarily start selling regular CTs for $60k, $80k, or $100k, when they can sell as many FSCT they can make for $20k more? Why would they stop making FSCTs if the demand is "over the top", meaning the demand for FSCT is more than they can make. Of course, this is just my opinion, but this is the reason I ordered a FSCT, because I did not want to wait another year or two. This is not a lot different than Ford dealerships initially selling the F-150 Lightning with a $20k mark-up. The $20k mark-up went away when demand dropped. The demand for the FSCT has not dropped off yet. It will someday. Who knows when?

 

[Spacenoddle]

I said nothing of a "slow roll" of FSCT. I believe Tesla will build and sell as many FSCT as soon as they can. If that is true, they won't stop making FSCT until demand drops off. Do you think Tesla will voluntarily start selling regular CTs for $60k, $80k, or $100k, when they can sell as many FSCT they can make for $20k more? Why would they stop making FSCTs if the demand is "over the top", meaning the demand for FSCT is more than they can make. Of course, this is just my opinion, but this is the reason I ordered a FSCT, because I did not want to wait another year or two. This is not a lot different than Ford dealerships initially selling the F-150 Lightning with a $20k mark-up. The $20k mark-up went away when demand dropped. The demand for the FSCT has not dropped off yet. It will someday. Who knows when?

I agree. And tbh, it is unfair for not giving a chance for at least all 2019 reservation holders. Reserved 1 month after the reveal night still a very early adopter.

 

[cvalue13]

Do you think Tesla will voluntarily start selling regular CTs for $60k, $80k, or $100k, when they can sell as many FSCT they can make for $20k more?

yes

as covered several times elsewhere, there are a lot of reasons

for starters, the FSCT does not bring “$20K more”. That’s not pure net margin, nor is it all found margin. It’s not pure net margin because out of that $20K comes extra cost to Tesla of every option/extra included in the FS package? Both on-vehicle (eg light bar), or off-vehicle (eg PowerShare equip). Say, hypothetically, the extra cost of those goods brings Tesla’s net margin down to $10K. But if that $10K, some portion is not found margin - because many people purchasing a non-FS CT will also order eg premium wheels, FSD, chargers, etc. So those “sales” of FS options/extras are not attributable to the FS, nor do they require the FS for Tesla to still make some portion of those sales. Say on average, the value of half of those accessories will be bought by someone buying a non-FS. That means, in our hypo, that of the $10K of net margin, only $5K are “extra” sales that are attributable to FS capture.


So now, Tesla’s financial rationale for selling FS is reduced down to ~5% extra margin. That’s nothing to shake a stick at. And maybe it’s more (given the FSD element and how Tesla prices it). But it’s not $20K, and even $20 isn’t necessarily enough to cause you to not balance it against the downsides of only selling FS.

Like what downsides? Public perception (fans and newbies alike were irritated at the price, and that irritation will only grow). Brand value (Tesla prefers to be seen as accessible, not a super-car company). Telling people it’s a limited edition, then boldly going back on that (making them for all or even most of a year would undermine any sense of limited edition) - and relatedly, announcing the base MSRPs, then continuing to describe those trims/prices in the website and as delivering in 2024.


the same lists of reasons above more so prove out it was never teslas plan to sell these FS configs for long, for any number of reasons. And as a result of broadcasting these reasons, now only make it that much more costly for Tesla to go back on it.

fair enough, Tesla’s shown they can change their minds: the original plan was for only 1,000 FS, and they do appear to have changed that plan if only wrt the AWD trim. But there’s no good reason to think they’d go so far as to change their minds to the point of only selling FS for a long period of time. All things considered, there’s just not that kind of net upside in it for them.

 

[Ward L]

Ask the Big Three CEOs what they think about an extra 5% extra margin would mean to them. My order email said "Limited Edition", not the first 1,000. A "sales Rep" on the phone said Tesla would make "20,000" FSCT. You are going to hang your hat on that? With all the attention a CT gets on the street and the customer demand, I think it is more likely Tesla will raise the price of their FSCT than stop making FSCT and sell regular old CTs. You are talking like Chevy takes a lot of heat and bad press because they price the Corvette as high as $120k. And exactly how or why would Tesla announce they will stop making FSCTs? Would they just announce something like we will stop sales of FSCT after the first X number are made and start selling only regular CTs? You only say that when you haven't sold X number of FSCT, not before. You may be correct, but more sales of a higher priced vehicle is how auto companies make more money. MTC

 

[cvalue13]

Ask the Big Three CEOs what they think about an extra 5% extra margin would mean to them.

how about ask the Big Three CEOs how they would like $1.79 billion in carbon credit income, as Tesla got in 2023, thereby making any net margin comparison an apples-to-oranges exercise

or, ask one of The Big Three CEOs how nice it would be to bury their distribution costs outside of their net margin calculations, as Tesla does in its financials, thereby making any net margin comparison an apples-to-oranges exercise

Or, ask one of The Big Three CEOs how nice it would be for their margins to have only 5 models of lite passenger vehicles with approximately 1/100th of the global distribution footprint, thereby making any net margin comparison an apples-to-oranges exercise

Or, ask Tesla what they expect their net margins to be, not accounting for carbon credit offsets, when they reach market saturation, begin including distribution costs in their net margin calcs, begin producing heavy/commercial fleets, and have a global distribution footprint equal to any Big Three - arriving at the first time for a meaningful apples-to-apples comparison of per vehicle net margins



This forum really doesn’t need another thread regurgitating armchair xwitter quips about Tesla’s business model that do more to evidence the speaker’s lack of familiarity with public company financials and the economics of distributed infrastructure manufacturing


least of all, because it’s irrelevant to the point being discussed: regardless if there’s more margin in the FS vs non-FS, it’s not $20K of more margin, there are no signs or reason to believe Tesla is going to eg “sell FS only until they can’t anymore”, and - contrary to such assertions - there are plenty of reasons and signs that Tesla doesn’t intend to do so

 

[Spacenoddle]

how about ask the Big Three CEOs how they would like $1.79 billion in carbon credit income, as Tesla got in 2023, thereby making any net margin comparison an apples-to-oranges exercise

or, ask one of The Big Three CEOs how nice it would be to bury their distribution costs outside of their net margin calculations, as Tesla does in its financials, thereby making any net margin comparison an apples-to-oranges exercise

Or, ask one of The Big Three CEOs how nice it would be for their margins to have only 5 models of lite passenger vehicles with approximately 1/100th of the global distribution footprint, thereby making any net margin comparison an apples-to-oranges exercise

Or, ask Tesla what they expect their net margins to be, not accounting for carbon credit offsets, when they reach market saturation, begin including distribution costs in their net margin calcs, begin producing heavy/commercial fleets, and have a global distribution footprint equal to any Big Three - arriving at the first time for a meaningful apples-to-apples comparison of per vehicle net margins



This forum really doesn’t need another thread regurgitating armchair xwitter quips about Tesla’s business model that do more to evidence the speaker’s lack of familiarity with public company financials and the economics of distributed infrastructure manufacturing


least of all, because it’s irrelevant to the point being discussed: regardless if there’s more margin in the FS vs non-FS, it’s not $20K of more margin, there are no signs or reason to believe Tesla is going to eg “sell FS only until they can’t anymore”, and - contrary to such assertions - there are plenty of reasons and signs that Tesla doesn’t intend to do so

I just feel, Tesla would only make FSCT till the rampup reach to a level which at least half way of Musk said of 125,000 first year production, like 60k. Now there is nowhere near even half of that number.

 

[evnow]

I said nothing of a "slow roll" of FSCT. I believe Tesla will build and sell as many FSCT as soon as they can. If that is true, they won't stop making FSCT until demand drops off. Do you think Tesla will voluntarily start selling regular CTs for $60k, $80k, or $100k, when they can sell as many FSCT they can make for $20k more? Why would they stop making FSCTs if the demand is "over the top", meaning the demand for FSCT is more than they can make.

The point is not that they will not continue to make FSCT if they can't increase volume - the point is they will do there at most to increase volume and start selling non-FS. Because that is the plan - and managers get fired if they can't execute on the plan in a timely manner. Elon has fired managers for far less.

Also, a lot of people keep assuming Tesla tries to maximize profit - citing Eco 101. But - Tesla is not a fly-by-night operator trying to maximize profit in the short term. Don't just look at Eco 101 - but also consider brand value, long term strategy, customer loyalty ... atleast Marketing 101. All these dictate they start making general CT for less rather than milk a few thousand rich people for $20k more. Tesla is not a boutique shop.

Remember the vision is to displace carbon dioxide spewing ICE trucks - not maximize profits on individual vehicles sold.

ps : There is a BIG assumption being made by some here - that FS with $20k extra will make them "more" profit. May be it won't - with the low volume they could make a loss on each FSCT sold. May be they have to increase volume to make any kind of money ... I've stopped making my quarterly forecasts a few years back so I don't have all the number now, but low volume is a killer in auto business.

 

[Ward L]

I agree Tesla is trying to make as many CTs as they can within quality constraints. I’m assuming they can make a FSCT as quickly as they can make a standard CT. I certainly agree, they will stop making FSCT if they can’t increase volume. My point is if the wait list is a mile long for FSCT, and if they can make FSCT as fast as a standard CT, they will continue to sell FSCT. Seems like you are not really understanding what I am trying to say. Enough said, time will tell what Tesla decides to do.

 

[4Dolio]

Don't just look at Eco 101 - but also consider brand value, long term strategy, customer loyalty ... atleast Marketing 101. All these dictate they start making general CT for less rather than milk a few thousand rich people for $20k more. Tesla is not a boutique shop.

I don't see why they can not do both, for as long as the first year or more or until the ramp starts to improve to the point that they would go ahead and spin up more lines. I'm not sure there is any previous analogous "special edition" for other models like the Y and the 3, beyond the higher end performance models taking longer to get to, same as the FE Beast version. Eventually they will decide when to stop offering FE Early production, I'm fine with that going on for as long as they want to.

 

[Spacenoddle]

I don't see why they can not do both, for as long as the first year or more or until the ramp starts to improve to the point that they would go ahead and spin up more lines. I'm not sure there is any previous analogous "special edition" for other models like the Y and the 3, beyond the higher end performance models taking longer to get to, same as the FE Beast version. Eventually they will decide when to stop offering FE Early production, I'm fine with that going on for as long as they want to.

Yeah, i had the same feeling that they will only stop the FS while the ramp up enough to reach at least half of Musk predicted 125000 per yea production rate. So when the monthly rate reachs 5k, it is time to call off the FSCT, before that they just use the FSCT invite to throttle the rampup process.

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