Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

[Yakuza]

Elon just tweeted the new batteries to be unveiled tomorrow won’t be produced in volume until 2022, and those will be used in semi, CT, and roadster

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[TirNaOg]

If that's so, glad I am so far up the list. Mine might just get them bad boys.

 

[VolklKatana]

He just means the scale...if the CT andsemi are just starting to be produced in 2021, they could still have new batteries for their limited production runs, then when the lines are running full speed, the battery lines are up to full speed as well.

 

[CyberMoose]

Elon just tweeted the new batteries to be unveiled tomorrow won’t be produced in volume until 2022, and those will be used in semi, CT, and roadster

All he said was it won't reach serious high volume production until 2022. Since Cybertruck will probably only have Cybertruck deliveries in the low 10's of thousands, I wouldn't call that high volume production for Tesla. I suspect that the Semi, the Roadster, and the Cybertruck will all have the improvements that will be discussed tomorrow. As for the S3XY lineup, they will probably start getting those improvements in 2022.

Tesla has to think of their customers that preordered. Imagine how the first customers would react if they get their Cybertrucks while knowing full well that in a few months, people will be getting Cybertrucks with better batteries. There might be small changes to the Cybertruck between the first year of production and the years to come, like how the Model 3 changed the seats and now the frunk. However, I don't see Tesla announcing battery improvements tomorrow and then a year later, excluding the first preorder customers from the benefits.

 

[Yakuza]

All he said was it won't reach serious high volume production until 2022. Since Cybertruck will probably only have Cybertruck deliveries in the low 10's of thousands, I wouldn't call that high volume production for Tesla. I suspect that the Semi, the Roadster, and the Cybertruck will all have the improvements that will be discussed tomorrow. As for the S3XY lineup, they will probably start getting those improvements in 2022.

Tesla has to think of their customers that preordered. Imagine how the first customers would react if they get their Cybertrucks while knowing full well that in a few months, people will be getting Cybertrucks with better batteries. There might be small changes to the Cybertruck between the first year of production and the years to come, like how the Model 3 changed the seats and now the frunk. However, I don't see Tesla announcing battery improvements tomorrow and then a year later, excluding the first preorder customers from the benefits.

The truck isn’t coming out next year. They’re battery constrained. Perhaps a handful for celebs. Not 10s of thousands until 2022 or later.

 

[Crissa]

The truck isn’t coming out next year. They’re battery constrained. Perhaps a handful for celebs. Not 10s of thousands until 2022 or later.

That's how many 3s came out the first few months of production.

-Crissa

 

[CyberMoose]

The truck isn’t coming out next year. They’re battery constrained. Perhaps a handful for celebs. Not 10s of thousands until 2022 or later.

And where did you get this information? Yes they need more batteries than are currently being produced, Elon even tweeted today to inform people that they will be purchasing more batteries from the companies they deal with, and possibly more companies too, this will be in addition to the batteries that they make themselves from their current production and future productions.

Now like I was mentioning in my previous post, the Cybertruck, Roadster, and Semi will probably all have the new batteries. If it's just these 3 vehicles that get the new batteries, there should be plenty for the Cybertruck. Obviously the Cybertruck has more preorders than the Roadster and Semi, and production will be slow at first; I'm sure Tesla has planned enough to make sure they have the battery production ready to keep up. The serious high volume production that will be coming for what is being announced tomorrow will most likely be to keep up with the production of their other vehicles (S3XY).

If they can't make enough batteries for more than a handful of Cybertrucks by the end of year, the company would either be in trouble or even behind their own schedule. I suspect at least 10,000 by the end of 2021.

 

[VolklKatana]

With the rumors of record sales again, this could have just been a way to get any orders from people waiting and hoping the new batteries were ready to be put in vehicles already.

 

[Crissa]

With the rumors of record sales again, this could have just been a way to get any orders from people waiting and hoping the new batteries were ready to be put in vehicles already.

That's an interesting idea - pre-loading demand to jump the Osborne Effect.

-Crissa

 

[lqdchkn]

The truck isn’t coming out next year. They’re battery constrained. Perhaps a handful for celebs. Not 10s of thousands until 2022 or later.

Where is this info coming from? Have you been watching Gordon Johnson videos? ?

 

[Crissa]

Where is this info coming from? Have you been watching Gordon Johnson videos? ?

Elon said this in the Battery Day presentation. He's said it before, as the reason for building the Gigafactory in Nevada. They vertically integrate because of this constraint. If most of the limit on how many cars they can build is batteries, well, they'd better build more batteries!

-Crissa

 

[lqdchkn]

Elon said this in the Battery Day presentation. He's said it before, as the reason for building the Gigafactory in Nevada. They vertically integrate because of this constraint. If most of the limit on how many cars they can build is batteries, well, they'd better build more batteries!

-Crissa

Constrained doesnt necessarily mean they cant meet demand. It means they dont have unlimited supply so they likely cant go any faster than demand. I dont foresee delaying CT delivery date due to battery shortage, whether they can make them as fast as they would like may be different.

 

[12thmanfootball]

Any predictions for Cybertruck run rate after Jan 2022? Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 I see about 70, 000 Cybertrucks being produced. That is only a guess. Probably ramp that by 50% increase per year just the same as Tesla is growing overall.

 

[RedBeardNP]

Just recently reserved my CT and been lurking so just joined to participate in the discussion.

Some of the concerns regarding delivery that have been raised are the fact that since the factory isn't finished yet, they won't have equipment, materials, staff etc ready until that is done. I have 0 experience in the industry but I would think that for such a massive and anticipated project they are doing many steps simultaneously.

I am sure they have their steel lined up, machines may already be lying in wait to be installed as soon as a roof is over the building. At least a small amount of staff could already be in training or trained since they know how to build the prototype etc.

What I am more concerned about is the fact that, unless Tesla is doing it very secretly, there doesn't seem to be a lot of real world testing going on. They have shown it in a tug-of-war against a Ford and such but I haven't seen videos of them demonstrating it's ability to tow, rock climb, maneuver etc, other than a few videos on city streets going city speed limits. Am I missing something? Do you guys think this is just happening under wraps? Or do you think CT is just way behind in actual testing?

The Rivian on the other hand is looking to launch next year and it seems more believable. They have tons of test footage showing it performing off road, towing etc. And they already have test vehicles being assembled. Even the accessories like tents and camping gear have real world prototypes and not just 3D renderings.

Thoughts? I want my CT by 2022 also but.......

 

[lqdchkn]

Any predictions for Cybertruck run rate after Jan 2022? Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 I see about 70, 000 Cybertrucks being produced. That is only a guess. Probably ramp that by 50% increase per year just the same as Tesla is growing overall.

Tesla Shanghai took about 7 months to ramp. I'd bet they've learn from that but not sure how much or how much faster they could improve from what they learned so I'd say 4-6 months?

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