Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

[Bigsur345]

Yeah, Musk had said they were limiting it to 'brown field' to limit the hurdles. The site they chose already had major permits and was massively disturbed earth. So much of the initial work could go ahead immediately before they needed some of the permits finalized.

-Crissa

Yes I figured there would be brownfields on this project. I imagine they are fast-tracking this project by getting Foundation only permits while they finalize the structural, architectural and MEP designs that will be required to get the factory ready for Temporary Certificate Occupancy (TCO).

Almost all of these big high-profile projects try for the TCO first, just like we did a few times in Vegas, while simultaneously working for the final Certificate Occupancy. That way, they can install the machinery and the assembly line equipment prior to the facility being 100% complete.

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[hridge2020]

So I'm way late to the game and recently put my order in for the dual motor CT on August 8, 2020. My estimated position is 688,339. Estimated delivery is December 2023. What are these numbers based on? Can this be relatively accurate or is there a lot of slop?

 

[ajdelange]

Another factor that I didn't mention is there is still the unknown factor of the 'plaid' Cybertruck.

The TriMotor is the "Plaid" CT.

 

[5UBV3T]

Unless you count the Semi, the Roadster, the Tesla Roof, the Tesla Solar Panels, the new battery lines, ... Big plate, Tesla has.

[/QUOTE]

Shall we add SpaceX, Boring and Neuralink to that also? Remember the top guy is the same for all 4 of these companies...

 

[5UBV3T]

All I have to say is... because according to the numbers I'm about 600k in line is that I would like to see all the details (and initial production) by Q4 of 2021. After the Model Y, and I'm a Tesla fanboy, the QA has slipped since the improvements seen during M3 production. I understand they needed to make deliveries of the MY but some of the things I've seen have been egregious.

I'm more than happy to be 600k in line for the CT. I hope that i get it late 2022 or early 2023 to let some of the "kinks" get worked out. Don't get me wrong. I'm an early adopter... for $250 air pod pros... not $60k vehicles. I hope they are perfect right from the get go, but after the MY I'm okay with waiting another year to get my CT.

 

[Daweism]

All I have to say is... because according to the numbers I'm about 600k in line is that I would like to see all the details (and initial production) by Q4 of 2021. After the Model Y, and I'm a Tesla fanboy, the QA has slipped since the improvements seen during M3 production. I understand they needed to make deliveries of the MY but some of the things I've seen have been egregious.

I'm more than happy to be 600k in line for the CT. I hope that i get it late 2022 or early 2023 to let some of the "kinks" get worked out. Don't get me wrong. I'm an early adopter... for $250 air pod pros... not $60k vehicles. I hope they are perfect right from the get go, but after the MY I'm okay with waiting another year to get my CT.

I take it you're not much of a kinky guy. ?

 

[Frank W]

Shall we add SpaceX, Boring and Neuralink to that also? Remember the top guy is the same for all 4 of these companies...
[/QUOTE]
Something came out yesterday regarding a side project that Elon is also involved in and it blows my mind thinking about everything that is on his plate!
https://apple.news/ADt9XCQ-VS7m_Gx9Up2mTIQ

 

[CyberMoose]

Shall we add SpaceX, Boring and Neuralink to that also? Remember the top guy is the same for all 4 of these companies...

Something came out yesterday regarding a side project that Elon is also involved in and it blows my mind thinking about everything that is on his plate!
https://apple.news/ADt9XCQ-VS7m_Gx9Up2mTIQ
[/QUOTE]

This actually isn't all that new. A lot of people think of Tesla as a car company that does some solar stuff. In reality, Tesla is a tech company that does tons of stuff. he could split his companies into even more companies if he really wanted to, and he gets the benefit of these companies working together. Tesla will get some stuff from SpaceX, starlink uses spaceX for launches, and i'm sure we'll see more things like this in the future.

 

[Hookalakupua]

Is there no one willing to stand by their prediction of a 2022 or later delivery time?!?!

 

[CyberMoose]

Is there no one willing to stand by their prediction of a 2022 or later delivery time?!?!

I predict deliveries for preorders in 2021...and 2022...and every year after till about 2024-2025 considering how many preorders they have. They is also factoring a lot of people canceling orders and new people making them before we are caught up.

 

[MUSK007]

Is there no one willing to stand by their prediction of a 2022 or later delivery time?!?!

I will. 2023 for early deliveries, and 2024 for real production units.
that of course is based on if a Tesla can work out all the problems with a brand new designed unit. Meaning maybe a year later than that.

 

[colemanlewis]

I do not know the intricacies about vehicle design, tooling, supply chains, crash testing and manufacturing challenges, but I do know about development and construction.

I just cannot see how Tesla can build at least one factory and deliver a truck within 18 MONTHS from now with so much to do -- for instance......

Buy the land for the terrafactory (it is only optioned right now) // Environmental Impact Study approval (the public comment period alone is a few months) // Govt. permitting & regulatory approvals // design, bid, construct // utility infrastructure // hire & train factory personnel // figure out where in the world are you going to get so much stainless steel // how you would manufacture so many more batteries when demand cannot even be reasonably met right now, and on and on ....

Texas is not like China where you can build a Tesla factory in about a year (that was amazing). Even with local, state & federal entities advocating such a high profile project, it is still going to be an arduous process to build the factory and deliver trucks; it just isn't going to happen by the end of 2021.

My guess is trucks start to roll out by 1st Q 2023, at the earliest, dang it. Anybody else have thoughts on the timelines?

You forget that Mr. Musk has publicly stated that the Cybertruck will be far cheaper and easier to build than a conventional car. It won't require the vast floor space, numerous robotic machines, and gigantic presses needed to mass produce conventional cars. Sheets of stainless steel will be quickly folded like origami to form the exoskeleton. No painting will be needed. I expect that the batteries will be incorporated into the exoskeleton so as to balance weight distribution, optimize frame strength, and maximize safety. Wiring will be largely eliminated by the use of digital signaling among the various lights and components. I expect that the experience gained from building the Cybertruck will lead directly to the introduction of a Model 2 "people's car" vehicle that will orders of magnitude cheaper and will annihilate the last bastion of gas buggies.

 

[Crissa]

...will lead directly to the introduction of a Model 2 "people's car" vehicle that will orders of magnitude cheaper and will annihilate the last bastion of gas buggies.

I hope so.

-Crissa

 

[Hookalakupua]

I will. 2023 for early deliveries, and 2024 for real production units.
that of course is based on if a Tesla can work out all the problems with a brand new designed unit. Meaning maybe a year later than that.

Finally, someone willing to stand up for their convictions! Haha. And to top it off, you’ve gone BIG DAWG and said 2023!! I love it!

Now with that said, no chance! Haha. With major other companies looking at releases next year, Elon isn’t going to be left with his pants down. Like most of the other release dates, the initial timeline has been out at the end of 2021 in order to not give any information away. And like the others (excluding roadster and semi), it will come to market early! With Rivian producing videos and well placed to deliver next year, there’s a zero chance in “H E Double Hockey Stick” that CT’s aren’t released in 2021!

Thanks again for standing up for what you believe and making this fun! ??

 

[CyberMoose]

Finally, someone willing to stand up for their convictions! Haha. And to top it off, you’ve gone BIG DAWG and said 2023!! I love it!

Now with that said, no chance! Haha. With major other companies looking at releases next year, Elon isn’t going to be left with his pants down. Like most of the other release dates, the initial timeline has been out at the end of 2021 in order to not give any information away. And like the others (excluding roadster and semi), it will come to market early! With Rivian producing videos and well placed to deliver next year, there’s a zero chance in “H E Double Hockey Stick” that CT’s aren’t released in 2021!

Thanks again for standing up for what you believe and making this fun! ??

I agree. While I was originally a bit concerned when they said late 2021 production, because to me that meant basically meant getting their test vehicles done and then starting production for consumers, which would put deliveries in Q1 of 2022. However, seeing their timeline for their factory and how fast things are already coming together, I can now see that the late 2021 projection was a very conservative estimate and it's likely that even if they are months behind schedule with the factory, it's still highly likely that we will have plenty of people receiving their Cybertrucks before christmas.

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