VINs Pending Delivery Chart & National Map 🗺️

[Hbrueckland]

awesome so AR is getting some legit VIN love it seems.

@cgladue Picking up Saturday, 3/23!

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[Axtrader]

dec 8

RN 112750xxx

Beast

San Diego

received vin 3/19

delivery first week of April

I just received my Beast VIN tonight too. Miramar San Diego Delivery. My VIN is higher than expected for a Beast, 389X. I didn’t get a delivery date. Where did they say first week of April @Guylouis ?

 

[Alan]

273 of the 289 deliveries so far have been December orders. Of the other 16 some may have the 30,000 point thing.

 

[FlyingDutchman]

did you put your order on hold ? or you still going through with it ?

Yes, they put my order on hold for four months. By then we get into H2 and things should start to look better for TSLA in terms of sales/ramp/etc.

 

[Guylouis]

I just received my Beast VIN tonight too. Miramar San Diego Delivery. My VIN is higher than expected for a Beast, 389X. I didn’t get a delivery date. Where did they say first week of April @Guylouis ?

I called the delivery team and asked them for an eta. The looked up my VIN and said currently scheduled for first week of April but could be sooner

 

[vinsk]

Order date is 12/24/2019
RN11295XXXX
Configured date: March 18, 2024
VIN# Not Yet
State: FL
FS AWD

 

[Axtrader]

I called the delivery team and asked them for an eta. The looked up my VIN and said currently scheduled for first week of April but could be sooner

Keep us aprised on this thread. I will bet your Beast and mine will be on the same truck hauler from Austin to San Diego. Is your VIN lower or higher than my 389X?

 

[Guylouis]

Keep us aprised on this thread. I will bet your Beast and mine will be on the same truck hauler from Austin to San Diego. Is your VIN lower or higher than my 389X?

VIN 004XXX

 

[Shadow6633]

1) RN#11286
2) Configured 02/20/24
3) VIN assigned 03/17/24
4) unknown
5) Missouri

I got a call today that my truck is here, 2 days after my VIN was assigned. Taking delivery 3/22.

I have no idea why the turn around was so fast, it was startling and was not expecting it so soon. The store didn’t even know they were coming in and woke up to 16 trucks on their lot. Knowing Tesla, there’s no consistent vin matching, there’s definitely going to be some growing pains on the delivery side.

 

[4Dolio]

1) The first 5 digits of your RN#. RN11275****
2) The date you configured your truck. Dec 16 2023
3) The date you received your VIN assignment (if known) None Yet
4) The Date you will take delivery (if known) None Yet
5) Your state Washington State
CyberBeast expected mid-late 2024

 

[DeBergo]

It’s here!! Tesla called yesterday and said my truck had arrived and I could pick it up today… but I have work commitments and can’t get it until Monday. Damn it’s hard adulting sometimes!! I could barely sleep last night, haven’t been so excited for something since I don’t know when. Somehow I think the next 5 days will seem like the whole 5 years of waiting up till now. Wooohooo

 

[Fizzo]

Soliciting thoughts...

Noticed a depressing trend in the "configure to VIN timeline" when looking at Texas specifically. I would have thought the time between configuring and VIN assignment would have leveled off or started decreasing at this point... but it keeps increasing steadily.

I know the Cybertruck.vin data isn't perfect. Especially with several VIPs jumping the line because of celebrity, stocks and referral rewards.

I configured February 6th for delivery in San Antonio, Texas. The original delivery estimate was February - April. Still no VIN assignment and looking at the data it could be well over 100 days before one is assigned.

Does anyone know if Tesla has addressed the increasing time between orders and delivery?

Any additional thoughts or observations appreciated.

Edit: ordered AWD

 

[cgladue]

I got a call today that my truck is here, 2 days after my VIN was assigned. Taking delivery 3/22.

I have no idea why the turn around was so fast, it was startling and was not expecting it so soon. The store didn’t even know they were coming in and woke up to 16 trucks on their lot. Knowing Tesla, there’s no consistent vin matching, there’s definitely going to be some growing pains on the delivery side.

Chesterfield ?

 

[agordon117]

Soliciting thoughts...

Noticed a depressing trend in the "configure to VIN timeline" when looking at Texas specifically. I would have thought the time between configuring and VIN assignment would have leveled off or started decreasing at this point... but it keeps increasing steadily.

I know the Cybertruck.vin data isn't perfect. Especially with several VIPs jumping the line because of celebrity, stocks and referral rewards.

I configured February 6th for delivery in San Antonio, Texas. The original delivery estimate was February - April. Still no VIN assignment and looking at the data it could be well over 100 days before one is assigned.

Does anyone know if Tesla has addressed the increasing time between orders and delivery?

Any additional thoughts or observations appreciated.

Tesla has so far addressed nothing. And they likely will not. The first clue is that they mask the delivery estimate after they have your money. They dangle it in your face to get your nonrefundable $1000. Then they don't even show you the original estimate that they used to get your money in the app, let alone update one like they did with every other new release in recent years (including the disaster of a launch that the refreshed model X was)

A week or so ago, I was doing some math using complicated assumptions to extrapolate how many people ordered vs how many trucks are being produced. But I simplified it to this. Last known vins per day avg was somewhere between 5 and 8. I can go back and do another average but as of now I made this chart so you can bring your own assumptions based on cybertruck.vin. This chart takes away my assumptions about how many people report here vs total orders. This counts only the known orders waiting for vin numbers, and the known vins assigned per day (reported to cybertruck.vin). Also, I put a column with beast, and a column without. I did this because even though all beast orders up to 1/17 aren't actually going to be delivered in the same timeline as the AWD orders, beasts ARE shipping, and so they will take up some of the vin assignments. The truth will be somewhere between those two columns. This chart has been updated as of 3/20.

March delivery orders remaining (1/17 cutoff, AWD)	All orders including beast, 1/17 cutoff	Known vins assigned per day (avg)	Days to last march AWD vin assignment	Days including beast
495	823	1	495	823
495	823	2	247.5	411.5
495	823	3	165	274.3333333
495	823	4	123.75	205.75
495	823	5	99	164.6
495	823	6	82.5	137.1666667
495	823	7	70.71428571	117.5714286
495	823	8	61.875	102.875
495	823	9	55	91.44444444
495	823	10	49.5	82.3
495	823	11	45	74.81818182
495	823	12	41.25	68.58333333
495	823	13	38.07692308	63.30769231
495	823	14	35.35714286	58.78571429
495	823	15	33	54.86666667
495	823	16	30.9375	51.4375
495	823	17	29.11764706	48.41176471
495	823	18	27.5	45.72222222
495	823	19	26.05263158	43.31578947
495	823	20	24.75	41.15
495	823	21	23.57142857	39.19047619
495	823	22	22.5	37.40909091
495	823	23	21.52173913	35.7826087
495	823	24	20.625	34.29166667
495	823	25	19.8	32.92
495	823	26	19.03846154	31.65384615
495	823	27	18.33333333	30.48148148
495	823	28	17.67857143	29.39285714
495	823	29	17.06896552	28.37931034
495	823	30	16.5	27.43333333

I've been sounding the alarm on this for a while. The configure to vin is only going up and will continue to do so until the december orders are all delivered. I think being in texas, you won't see 100 days unless you ordered beast (then it could be longer). But only the very luckiest people outside of the chosen states will get vin numbers in the estimated delivery time until this trend reverses. I ended up being one of those lucky people, which I still cannot really believe. I got one at 65 days. My math said if they went totally randomly and did not go outside of jan-march delivery timeslot, there was a 3.7% chance that I would get a vin on or before the day that I did.


Now for the good:

We've seen a few days of much higher vin assignments. They aren't consecutive, but they are happening.

3/13: 15
3/14: 6
3/15: 10
3/16: 4
3/17: 4
3/18: 13
3/19: 9

And keep in mind, vins take a week or more to be reported here in some cases, so the numbers on those days may keep climbing. There IS an increasing trend in vin assignments. If you just take the last week as an average we are at 8.7 vins per day. But I still expect the last 5 or so days to have more vins reported over the next week. If this trend continues, late december/early january orders will be the worst off, and it will get better from there. I've been guessing that would be the case for a while. I can't guess specifically what the inflection point would be, but it's coming. I was originally very sure january orders would take until end of june to all be delivered. Now I'm guessing a couple of weeks earlier than that. But I can't predict the ramp, I can only update my data reactively based on what is happening.

 

[agordon117]

@cgladue

Have there been a bunch of orders added from 12/8-1/17 in the last week? I only show a decrease of 12 orders waiting for a VIN in that period since I made my last chart 7 days ago.

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