What would it take to make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck?

[TheLastStarfighter]

I know a lot of people that would love to buy a cybertruck but it's just too expensive. If (when?) they get the price down $5-10k sales will go up significantly. I think they're content with it being a bit of a halo vehicle for now until they get 4680 volume and efficiency up. As those batteries get better and in more vehicles, price will come down and CT can get it's first real price cut, bringing it more into the mass market.

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[BlueLightning]

What volume of sales or other events would make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck? Many years? Or is the time coming soon or never?

Straws are being grasped via offerings and with more to come. Production is slowing. Inventory is climbing. Sales are stagnant.

Tesla has plenty of sunk costs in the product, can they recover sales and excitement without adding range or dramatically lowering price?

Strip out those batteries, and drop a V10 in there people would buy that…? Joke!

 

[pae1andonly]

What volume of sales or other events would make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck? Many years? Or is the time coming soon or never?

Straws are being grasped via offerings and with more to come. Production is slowing. Inventory is climbing. Sales are stagnant.

Tesla has plenty of sunk costs in the product, can they recover sales and excitement without adding range or dramatically lowering price?

Any excess CTs become Mars Rovers

 

[Trimotor]

As soon as Elon puts a 500 mile range battery in the Cybertruck Kyle Conner will be the first one to get it IMHO.

 

[Cyberfamily]

I think that the design and politics killed the golden goose. Only way to save it is to lower price to eat everything. Take the profits from the Y and 3 to lower the price to put the gas trucks out of business. Hopefully by then range will come about to get to 500.

I know it is a dream, and maybe simple minded. I do believe in the dream of Tesla. Getting a little murky lately.

Yet it is a business. In our family if it is a dangler it gets cut. Sometimes those are oysters. We live on a farm.

 

[Outdoors]

Many comments have been made since I posed the question. Great community discussion. I have been in the Tesla world since 2012. So it has been a interesting ride.

I think Tesla's mission statement has always rung true to me. So I am happy with the Cybertruck. I also feel it is stuck in a weird time warp of bad things. We all know them so I don't need repeating.

My concern still is just a couple items. Inventory, and future demand. I don't think that Tesla will do a system of running the Cybetruck to fulfill orders for a couple weeks to shut it down. Then do the same rinse repeat. Yes we might see some shuffling of workers on lines and shutdowns. However those might be normal to allocate resources.

I mentioned this in the first post. What creates demand absent a lower price point or increased range? Very few want to talk about these points. Where is the demand created and how is it created?

All I hear is:

EV market sucks now
EV trucks were not meant for towing or mainstream yet
Political Mumbo jumbo.
Range from original offering is not relevant as the superchargers solve the problem.
Range issue from beginning.
Tesla can afford to make the Cybertruck as a halo product.

Again how is demand created in the current environment?

 

[HaulingAss]

Its better in all other ways but this is a big problem for ev truck.

Not a big problem for an EV truck because the 1/2-ton truck market is so big and the vast majority of 1/2-ton pickups never tow at all, let alone far enough to be a problem for a Cybertruck.

Tesla knows this. In the last full year of sales it outsold the GM Silverado more than 3 to 1 (and the Silverado has a much longer towing range). People parroting that 340 miles of EPA range kills sales don't understand the light truck market. The sales data clearly demonstrates this. Otherwise the longest range Silverado would be the best selling electric pickup!

 

[CyberZephyr]

2024 US sales estimates, from Cox Automotive:

38,965 Cybertruck
19,855 Model X
12,426 Model S

These are just US sales. The Cybertruck has additonal sales in Canada, and the S/X have additional sales in Canada, Europe, and Asia. But most of the sales for all three models are in the US, and we can assume that the CT easily outsold both the S and the X.

If Tesla decided to cut back their product line for the sake of efficiency, seems like the S and/or the X would go before the Cybertruck. There would be no embarrassment for Tesla if they discontinued the S or X -- everyone knows they are old models that had a good run, but are long past their prime in terms of sales. In contrast, it definitely would be embarrassing if Tesla discontinued the Cybertruck after just a few years on the market. So it should be easier to cut the S/X -- fewer sales, no embarrassment.

My guess is that the Cybertruck is safe as long as the S and X are also still in production. But if the S and X are ever discontinued, well, then maybe it would be time to worry about the CT being next.

Good point, but I think OP was implying that the initial excitement has passed. Only time will tell...

 

[xpstudio]

I actually had a very early VIN Cybertruck and owned it for about a year before Tesla ended up buying it back. It was my first truck ever, and honestly, our family of four loved it. Super fun, tons of character. But despite that, I’d never buy a Tesla again - only lease. The depreciation is brutal, and with how fast their AI hardware updates are moving, it’s rough being stuck with older hardware that can’t run the latest FSD versions.

Right now, I’m back in the market for a CT, but I’m holding out for a good lease deal. As it stands, 7.99% APR on a 3-year lease is way too high to make sense. And with today’s announcement that the $7500 tax credit is ending after 12/31/25, that’s going to squeeze margins even more. Tesla won’t be able to justify keeping the CT production line running for just 20–30k units a year at that rate it’s just not sustainable for a vehicle that requires so much unique tooling.

What would make more sense is if they pivoted and did a CyberSUV on the same platform. Keep the design language, give it a 7-seat layout with a massive trunk, tweak the interior a bit, and boom you’ve got a much more broadly appealing vehicle. That way they could run the AWD Cybertruck at lower volume for enthusiasts, support the used market from completely tanking, and actually make the platform work long-term.

So yeah, unless they drop the price significantly or do something bold like a CyberSUV, I don’t see the current CT format surviving the next few years in high volume.

 

[HaulingAss]

I actually had a very early VIN Cybertruck and owned it for about a year before Tesla ended up buying it back. It was my first truck ever, and honestly, our family of four loved it. Super fun, tons of character. But despite that, I’d never buy a Tesla again - only lease. The depreciation is brutal, and with how fast their AI hardware updates are moving, it’s rough being stuck with older hardware that can’t run the latest FSD versions.

You must be relatively green in terms of experiences buying new cars.

Used Tesla vehicles of all models were strongly appreciating in 2023. People were selling year old used Tesla with over 10K miles on the odometer for as much or more than they had paid for them brand new. It all depends upon market conditions. Auto sales are considered cyclical (which means sales cycle with economic conditions).

In general, new cars depreciate a brutal amount as soon as you drive them off the sales lot. But that is not always the case, nor is it brand specific. in fact, Tesla hold their prices relatively well (but not during all time frames). It all depends upon when you bought. Right now is probably a pretty decent time to buy with all the price-cutting and incentives. But never buy a new car thinking it won't depreciate much.

 

[xpstudio]

You must be relatively green in terms of experiences buying new cars.

Used Tesla vehicles of all models were strongly appreciating in 2023. People were selling year old used Tesla with over 10K miles on the odometer for considerably more than they had paid for them brand new. It all depends upon market conditions. Auto sales are considered cyclical (which means sales cycle with economic conditions).

yeah green, 7 teslas in 8 years

 

[HaulingAss]

yeah green, 7 teslas in 8 years

I should have qualified that by saying you don't have a very large history of buying new ICE cars (for comparison purposes). Because they typically depreciate heavily in the first year too.

Now I have to wonder, why would it take 7 new Tesla purchases in 8 years to figure this out? If Tesla's really did have worse depreciation than other brands, wouldn't that have been apparent after 2-4 purchases? I say that based upon your statement that you would never buy another Tesla again because the depreciation is brutal. And yet you bought seven of them in eight years?

It makes no sense that it would take you 7 new Tesla purchases in 8 years to figure out that first year depreciation of new cars is pretty steep.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

There have been less than 50k orders total. That doesn't mean all others have cancelled.

Yeah, it does mean that. Anyone wanting a CT can have as a many as they want. Right now. Today. There is no longer any such thing as a pending CT order. It isn’t a thing. Have a few idiots left $100 deposits on the table? Maybe, but they are either incompetent or fools.

 

[Outdoors]

Good point, but I think OP was implying that the initial excitement has passed. Only time will tell...

Yes the excitement has passed.

I recall statements like this thing is going to crush the gas truck marketplace.

If it only gets 10 percent market share that equates to billions in sales.

Going to revolutionize the truck market.

Has done nothing of the sort. I myself thought some of those thoughts. Seems like it would take something monumental to actually see 100,000 in annual sales.

Just can't imagine what would be so monumental.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

I should have qualified that by saying you don't have a very large history of buying new ICE cars (for comparison purposes). Because they typically depreciate heavily in the first year too.

Now I have to wonder, why would it take 7 new Tesla purchases in 8 years to figure this out? If Tesla's really did have worse depreciation than other brands, wouldn't that have been apparent after 2-4 purchases? I say that based upon your statement that you would never buy another Tesla again because the depreciation is brutal. And yet you bought seven of them in eight years?

It makes no sense that it would take you 7 new Tesla purchases in 8 years to figure out that first year depreciation of new cars is pretty steep.

Tesla’s value depreciation has been spectacularly and uniquely large compared to any vehicle manufacturer in history. No other manufacturer has reduced prices as aggressively or strategically. However, this was always a stated part of the business plan - Anyone spending $125k for a CT in 2023 was on notice that a sub-$80k version was coming. With that said, EVs in general have not held their value compared to ICE - because in reality they are akin to cell phones - and who owns a 10-year old iPhone? Actual obsolescence is simply more of a factor with EVs.

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