What would it take to make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck?

[HaulingAss]

Tesla’s value depreciation has been spectacularly and uniquely large compared to any vehicle manufacturer in history. No other manufacturer has reduced prices as aggressively or strategically. However, this was always a stated part of the business plan - Anyone spending $125k for a CT in 2023 was on notice that a sub-$80k version was coming. With that said, EVs in general have not held their value compared to ICE - because in reality they are akin to cell phones - and who owns a 10-year old iPhone? Actual obsolescence is simply more of a factor with EVs.

Don't lump Tesla's in with all EVs. In the last 8 years, Tesla have a considerably lower depreciation than other EVs. EVs like the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt impacted EV depreciation statistics in an outsized manner due to battery issues.

The media has been complicit in exaggerating the depreciation of Tesla by cherry picking time periods used for their calculations (amongst other non-scientific methodologies used to make Tesla look worse than reality).

That said, just like the volatility of TSLA stock, Tesla new and used prices have been more volatile than the average car. But, on average, the depreciation of Tesla starting with the Model 3, looked at in a non-biased manner, has been roughly on par with all other new vehicles over time. Not significantly better or worse than average. The media has created the opposite impression, as one would expect. Even Grok 3 will likely say depreciation is higher due to the way it sources it's opinion from media articles.

So you should find some comfort in knowing that Grok 3 is not smarter than you are on such topics.

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[YDR37]

What creates demand absent a lower price point or increased range? Very few want to talk about these points. Where is the demand created and how is it created? ... Again how is demand created in the current environment?

Lower prices are an obvious answer, but you already mentioned that. Same for increased range. I doubt that either of these options are feasible given the basic design of the Cybertruck. It's probably inherently expensive to build a vehicle out of stainless steel, and the range is unlikely to change much unless there is a revolution in battery technology.

In theory, an effective advertising campaign can stimulate demand. But Elon doesn't believe in advertising (except on Twitter/X). Don't expect to see any memorable Cybertruck commercials during the Super Bowl.

I think Elon is betting all of Tesla's chips on Unsupervised FSD. If Tesla can truly deliver unsupervised self-driving personal vehicles, that could be a game changer for demand. So Tesla's planned June rollout of robotaxis in Austin is going to be very closely watched.

 

[ABILISK]

Tesla’s value depreciation has been spectacularly and uniquely large compared to any vehicle manufacturer in history. No other manufacturer has reduced prices as aggressively or strategically. However, this was always a stated part of the business plan - Anyone spending $125k for a CT in 2023 was on notice that a sub-$80k version was coming. With that said, EVs in general have not held their value compared to ICE - because in reality they are akin to cell phones - and who owns a 10-year old iPhone? Actual obsolescence is simply more of a factor with EVs.

My parents had one of the first Model Ys ever made. Just a no frills LR AWD with the 19” wheels. They put over 60K miles on it. Their purchase was what actually gave me my love for Tesla. I’ve been a gas guzzling pickup trucker all my life and I was in love and totally sold on the company after the first drive. Traded in my V8 Tundra for a M3P not long after (then wondered how I would ever transport mulch home).

Just recently they traded their early Model Y in towards the new “juniper” model and got $17K for their trade in. The cars hold value pretty well IMO.

 

[Outdoors]

The media has been complicit in exaggerating the depreciation of Tesla by cherry picking time periods used for their calculations (amongst other non-scientific methodologies used to make Tesla look worse than reality).

There are thousands that would disagree with you. No media. We don't see it often here in truck land. Some walked from the brand completely after the price was dropped $20k overnight on products.

It is a different methodology for pricing. No one goes down to the stealership after they bought a Toyota after the price went down. Yet for Tesla's they do. Strange. The model must make people think they are getting a raw deal, when it happens in the normal car sales model all the time.

 

[HaulingAss]

It is a different methodology for pricing. No one goes down to the stealership after they bought a Toyota after the price went down. Yet for Tesla's they do. Strange. The model must make people think they are getting a raw deal, when it happens in the normal car sales model all the time.

True, and I'm sure some buyers are genuinely shocked how much their new car or truck depreciated. But much of what you read online is drummed up by people actively trying to create and amplify negative narratives.

They are following the old adage of, "If you repeat a lie often enough, even seemingly reasonable people will start believing there must be some truth in it."

 

[Outdoors]

True, and I'm sure some buyers are genuinely shocked how much their new car or truck depreciated. But much of what you read online is drummed up by people actively trying to create and amplify negative narratives.

They are following the old adage of, "If you repeat a lie often enough, even seemingly reasonable people will start believing there must be some truth in it."

With no true model year changeover for product offerings, and pricing and incentives usually dictated by time to quarter end. The last 5 years have been a merry go round for pricing on Tesla's. The Model S is a great example.

Depreciation is one thing, but to have a $20k cut overnight and colors all free on the S and X really burned many. So add the depreciation onto that. There is no FUD on that. It happened. No drumming either. Pretty clear if one looks it up. Did however allow people to buy a fast car for like 60k. Which is amazing.

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

Many comments have been made since I posed the question. Great community discussion. I have been in the Tesla world since 2012. So it has been a interesting ride.

I think Tesla's mission statement has always rung true to me. So I am happy with the Cybertruck. I also feel it is stuck in a weird time warp of bad things. We all know them so I don't need repeating.

My concern still is just a couple items. Inventory, and future demand. I don't think that Tesla will do a system of running the Cybetruck to fulfill orders for a couple weeks to shut it down. Then do the same rinse repeat. Yes we might see some shuffling of workers on lines and shutdowns. However those might be normal to allocate resources.

I mentioned this in the first post. What creates demand absent a lower price point or increased range? Very few want to talk about these points. Where is the demand created and how is it created?

All I hear is:

EV market sucks now
EV trucks were not meant for towing or mainstream yet
Political Mumbo jumbo.
Range from original offering is not relevant as the superchargers solve the problem.
Range issue from beginning.
Tesla can afford to make the Cybertruck as a halo product.

Again how is demand created in the current environment?

The problem with your question and the topic in general is that you are assuming there is a demand problem. There isn't. There is a price problem. When the price was announced as $39-69k there were millions of reservations that would translate into 100k's of sales. At $80-100k your market is only about 10% of what it is at the lower price. The market for luxury trucks like Raptors, Limited's, TRX's and Denali's is very small compared to the greater truck market, and that's the air they are playing in now.

Back in the early days of this forum someone posted a graph showing the potential market for a car based on price. As you move downward form $100k your potential market grows exponentially. People love the Cybertruck. They just can't qualify to finance it. If they get the price down $10k the market is probably 2X as big, if it were $20k cheaper it will be 4X more potential customers. Lowering the price is the only way to increase sales.

 

[Obecalb]

Agreed, I think the X or S will get cut first, at least I hope that is the case.

I know people are saying it may be a flop, but they sold almost 40K $100,000+ trucks in the first year of production. It is not even available in most other countries yet. I think that is far from failure. They need to keep working to bring the price down and over the next couple years as people replace their vehicles we will see if the sales numbers climb. But it currently outsells any other $100K production car on the market, including other Teslas but I don't see much talk about the S or X, Hummer, Rivian, BMW IX, Lucids being a failure yet. The chevy Silverado EV sold 7400 units in the first year. I haven't heard any discussion of failure there either. Not sure how many people would be happy about replacing their current cybertruck with something else. I know I would be so disappointed in anything else. The truck is just amazing, even after having it over a year now.

 

[Gigahorse]

I know people are saying it may be a flop, but they sold almost 40K $100,000+ trucks in the first year of production. It is not even available in most other countries yet. I think that is far from failure. They need to keep working to bring the price down and over the next couple years as people replace their vehicles we will see if the sales numbers climb. But it currently outsells any other $100K production car on the market, including other Teslas but I don't see much talk about the S or X, Hummer, Rivian, BMW IX, Lucids being a failure yet. The chevy Silverado EV sold 7400 units in the first year. I haven't heard any discussion of failure there either. Not sure how many people would be happy about replacing their current cybertruck with something else. I know I would be so disappointed in anything else. The truck is just amazing, even after having it over a year now.

I mean I own one, so obviously I like it enough to give my money for it.
But pretty obvious with 2million preorders and 40k trucks sold that the perceived/hyped demand was very different from what has transpired so far.

I wouldn't want another truck, but at some point the sales need to increase or it is bad news for everyone.

 

[YDR37]

But it currently outsells any other $100K production car on the market ...

That was true for a while, like in mid-2024. But that was when the only Cybertruck options were the Foundation Series, starting at $99,990 for AWD and $119,900 for CB.

Now it's 2025, and I doubt that Tesla is selling many CTs over $100K. Today, the most popular CT has to be the $79,990 AWD version that qualifies for the tax credit (so effective price of $72,490).

You could only top $100K if you bought a 2025 CB (starting at $99,990) with options, or if you bought one of the remaining Foundation CBs (which are now down to $108,000). So it's possible, but the numbers are probably small. Even the remaining Foundation AWDs are now down to $89,990, so they wouldn't top the $100K mark.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

With no true model year changeover for product offerings, and pricing and incentives usually dictated by time to quarter end. The last 5 years have been a merry go round for pricing on Tesla's. The Model S is a great example.

Depreciation is one thing, but to have a $20k cut overnight and colors all free on the S and X really burned many. So add the depreciation onto that. There is no FUD on that. It happened. No drumming either. Pretty clear if one looks it up. Did however allow people to buy a fast car for like 60k. Which is amazing.

And then Tesla gave up on the model year distinction thing - they once had model years based only on when the vehicle was produced, and made continual in-productiuon improvements throughout the year. It turns out the conventional manufacturers actually knew a thing or two about both production staging/sequencing and model year changeovers, as well as consumer psychology/marketing, and Tesla was finally forced to join them. My wife's new MY Juniper is a 2026 model year vehicle, apparently production timing be damned. Marketing won out.

 

[bigmoose70]

Battery tech isn’t good enough for a true utility truck. Without adding so much weight.

 

[ÆCIII]

What volume of sales or other events would make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck? Many years? Or is the time coming soon or never?

Straws are being grasped via offerings and with more to come. Production is slowing. Inventory is climbing. Sales are stagnant.

Tesla has plenty of sunk costs in the product, can they recover sales and excitement without adding range or dramatically lowering price?

Tesla has all the time in the world with strong fundamentals and lowest to nearly zero debt of all auto makers out there, so this sounds more like a TSLAQ wishful thinking narrative pushing question more so than any genuine one, because Tesla simply doesn't need to hurry.

Tesla knew there was going to be an economic slump and the sales don't have to be judged right now or never as an impulsively desperate person or narrative seeker might do. The Cybertruck in many ways is still at least ten years ahead of anything else with advanced tech and awesome handling with four wheel steering, and especially when FSD is added into the features.

Tesla could sit on it's manufacturing of Cybertruck for a few more years if necessary, while the big ship of the U.S. economy gets turned around (steering has started), until people who are long reservation holders have time to financially heal their households and then one day pull the trigger on configuring a purchase.

Regardless, another point too is that when people focus on a slump in Tesla sales, they seldom point out that All vehicle sales are in that same slump, but the MSM (who receives $Billions from legacy auto for advertising) will always conveniently leave that part out. You don't see droves of people saying I'm going to cancel my Cybertruck reservation and then buy something else, only maybe a few for their (likely compromised) perceptual reasons, but not a significant percentage. Many people who haven't pulled the trigger on their Cybertruck reservation haven't rushed out to buy anything else either, so time will tell.

Tesla doesn't have to recover costs by a certain time in desperation like so many other legacy auto companies paying much more higher interest on their massive debts. If anyone wants to wave the term "Sunk Costs" around on a sign, they should remember that the legacy auto companies have given the MSM $Billions in "Sunk Costs" which have done absolutely nothing for the product.

At least Tesla's "Sunk Costs" were much more wisely chosen, and will ultimately be realized in benefits of an optimal product, because again compared to legacy auto, Tesla has all the time in the world to wait on the economic momentum for households to start making the big purchases again. So attempting to paint a falling sky or cloud over Tesla's products, is a weak argument all the way around, because again the Cybertruck is so far ahead of others, and Tesla has lots of time to wait or make them as needed.

Look how long they've been making the Model-S without it being a major portion of their sales. Tesla also has lots of space too so I see absolutely no concern with Tesla having to slow the Cybertruck production at certain times, but something tells me that the Cybertruck sales may actually start to pick up more over the next two or more years...

- ÆCIII

 

[Cyberfamily]

so this sounds more like a TSLAQ wishful thinking narrative pushing question more so than any genuine one
- ÆCIII

Sounds to me like someone can't have an intelligent conversation about a topic is the way I read your comment here. Kind of childish.

 

[ÆCIII]

Sounds to me like someone can't have an intelligent conversation about a topic is the way I read your comment here. Kind of childish.

TSLAQ shills would say something just like that as well! This thread is at least two for two on that! I think this 'childish' thing is sometimes both intelligent and fun!

- ÆCIII

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