What would it take to make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck?

[Outdoors]

What volume of sales or other events would make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck? Many years? Or is the time coming soon or never?

Straws are being grasped via offerings and with more to come. Production is slowing. Inventory is climbing. Sales are stagnant.

Tesla has plenty of sunk costs in the product, can they recover sales and excitement without adding range or dramatically lowering price?

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[ChiTownCT]

I dont care I got mine, going to drive this thing into the ground..

 

[Gigahorse]

What volume of sales or other events would make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck? Many years? Or is the time coming soon or never?

Straws are being grasped via offerings and with more to come. Production is slowing. Inventory is climbing. Sales are stagnant.

Tesla has plenty of sunk costs in the product, can they recover sales and excitement without adding range or dramatically lowering price?

The S and X don't sell a lot of volume, hopefully that is the worst case scenario.

 

[Cyber]

As I understand it, the X doesn't do particularly well. They still pump them out. I feel the Cybertruck will stay on the menu, albeit whittled down.

 

[malinecentral]

What volume of sales or other events would make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck? Many years? Or is the time coming soon or never?

Straws are being grasped via offerings and with more to come. Production is slowing. Inventory is climbing. Sales are stagnant.

Tesla has plenty of sunk costs in the product, can they recover sales and excitement without adding range or dramatically lowering price?

I have heard anywhere from 10,000 to 20,000 in unsold CyberTruck inventory. To put that number in perspective here are some screenshots from Cars.com of New Cars for sale by manufacturer. These are new cars sitting on dealers lots, aka unsold inventory except perhaps from the manufacturers perspective because they sold them to a dealership.

There are some headwinds right now with both financial uncertainty and political unrest. Obviously the truck was polarizing and was never meant for the masses. To push product, interest rates need to come down, prices need to be lower and any advancements in range will obviously help. Also, the whole Elon Musk saga isn’t helping anything. So he needs the world’s best PR guy.

It’s funny because obviously the truck can do truck stuff but people either love it or they hate it. But Ford guys are typically Ford Guys and Chevy guys are typically Chevy guys so they are tough folks to win over. Anecdotally it seems a lot of the people buying Electric Trucks seem to be coming from Model Y’s and not Chevy, Ram or Ford.

All of them, not just the CT are great farm trucks. Are they good for long hauls, not really if that’s what you do. But there was a guy I saw recently that lived in BFE and complained about having to drive 30 min each way to fill up for his farm truck. Imagine that guy waking up every morning to a “full tank”.

Will they stop production, I don’t think so. At least it’s too soon to tell. It’s already competing with Ford in the EV truck segment and they were practically giving Fords away at the end of the year last year. In case you haven’t noticed we are almost certainly on the brink of a recession so everybody is going to be fighting to sell product and I think Tesla is poised probably better than most in that regard. They can change the price and add incentives at will because they control it from Manufacturer to Consumer. The old model isn’t well suited to pull the knobs and levers like Tesla can and have to work with rebates and even then the prices are always hazy to the end consumer at best.

But if it does flop, hey, we have a piece of modern history. If anything I expect perhaps they unveil a radical new design in a few years. CyberTruck 2.0 and we get to see a a polygon get rendered in real time.

 

[YDR37]

The S and X don't sell a lot of volume, hopefully that is the worst case scenario.

As I understand it, the X doesn't do particularly well. They still pump them out. I feel the Cybertruck will stay on the menu, albeit whittled down.

2024 US sales estimates, from Cox Automotive:

38,965 Cybertruck
19,855 Model X
12,426 Model S

These are just US sales. The Cybertruck has additonal sales in Canada, and the S/X have additional sales in Canada, Europe, and Asia. But most of the sales for all three models are in the US, and we can assume that the CT easily outsold both the S and the X.

If Tesla decided to cut back their product line for the sake of efficiency, seems like the S and/or the X would go before the Cybertruck. There would be no embarrassment for Tesla if they discontinued the S or X -- everyone knows they are old models that had a good run, but are long past their prime in terms of sales. In contrast, it definitely would be embarrassing if Tesla discontinued the Cybertruck after just a few years on the market. So it should be easier to cut the S/X -- fewer sales, no embarrassment.

My guess is that the Cybertruck is safe as long as the S and X are also still in production. But if the S and X are ever discontinued, well, then maybe it would be time to worry about the CT being next.

 

[Gigahorse]

2024 US sales estimates, from Cox Automotive:

38,965 Cybertruck
19,855 Model X
12,426 Model S

These are just US sales. The Cybertruck has additonal sales in Canada, and the S/X have additional sales in Canada, Europe, and Asia. But most of the sales for all three models are in the US, and we can assume that the CT easily outsold both the S and the X.

If Tesla decided to cut back their product line for the sake of efficiency, seems like the S and/or the X would go before the Cybertruck. There would be no embarrassment for Tesla if they discontinued the S or X -- everyone knows they are old models that had a good run, but are long past their prime in terms of sales. In contrast, it definitely would be embarrassing if Tesla discontinued the Cybertruck after just a few years on the market. So it should be easier to cut the S/X -- fewer sales, no embarrassment.

My guess is that the Cybertruck is safe as long as the S and X are also still in production. But if the S and X are ever discontinued, well, then maybe it would be time to worry about the CT being next.

Agreed, I think the X or S will get cut first, at least I hope that is the case.

 

[Dahongfei]

2024 US sales estimates, from Cox Automotive:

38,965 Cybertruck
19,855 Model X
12,426 Model S

These are just US sales. The Cybertruck has additonal sales in Canada, and the S/X have additional sales in Canada, Europe, and Asia. But most of the sales for all three models are in the US, and we can assume that the CT easily outsold both the S and the X.

If Tesla decided to cut back their product line for the sake of efficiency, seems like the S and/or the X would go before the Cybertruck. There would be no embarrassment for Tesla if they discontinued the S or X -- everyone knows they are old models that had a good run, but are long past their prime in terms of sales. In contrast, it definitely would be embarrassing if Tesla discontinued the Cybertruck after just a few years on the market. So it should be easier to cut the S/X -- fewer sales, no embarrassment.

My guess is that the Cybertruck is safe as long as the S and X are also still in production. But if the S and X are ever discontinued, well, then maybe it would be time to worry about the CT being next.

Sadly you have to look at the data, excluding macro stuff going on.

estimates from Grok say the S and X sold anywhere between 60-100,000 between the two in 2022. Far outpacing the cybertruck in their first full years of sales, after their refresh.

cybertruck sales since 2024 numbers are going to be really bad for 2025. Maybe even half is my guess

I’m bullish on Tesla and an investor/ own cyber. So I hope I am wrong ?

 

[ABILISK]

I could honestly see S/X/CT all being discontinued and some kind of normal looking, non SS pickup truck being introduced (sort an X/CT mashup).

That will probably be a few years, though. One thing I would be VERY surprised to ever see would be a CT refresh, keeping the SS but with any sort of redesigned body panels.

 

[scottf200]

2024 US sales estimates, from Cox Automotive:

38,965 Cybertruck
19,855 Model X
12,426 Model S

These are just US sales. The Cybertruck has additonal sales in Canada, and the S/X have additional sales in Canada, Europe, and Asia. But most of the sales for all three models are in the US, and we can assume that the CT easily outsold both the S and the X.

If Tesla decided to cut back their product line for the sake of efficiency, seems like the S and/or the X would go before the Cybertruck. There would be no embarrassment for Tesla if they discontinued the S or X -- everyone knows they are old models that had a good run, but are long past their prime in terms of sales. In contrast, it definitely would be embarrassing if Tesla discontinued the Cybertruck after just a few years on the market. So it should be easier to cut the S/X -- fewer sales, no embarrassment.

My guess is that the Cybertruck is safe as long as the S and X are also still in production. But if the S and X are ever discontinued, well, then maybe it would be time to worry about the CT being next.

Not sure that is a good comparison of sales numbers considering that the X (Late2015/2016) and S (mid-2012) have been around for years and the CT just 1.5 yrs (Nov-2023).

We'd need to see how the CT does over 2+ years and especially in the 2025 pivotal year.

The S hit 50K one year and had some 30K years. The X had some 30K years.

 

[nasg]

I dont care I got mine, going to drive this thing into the ground..

same, first vehicle I ever said that about

 

[Mattkalin]

I feel like just the fact that this question is even being considered by a group of Cybertruck Enthusiasts is enough to tell the outcome…

 

[Sjohnson20]

i think they keep selling the Cybertruck and don’t make a normal EV truck unless Ford or GM or whoever suddenly starts selling 100k EV trucks a year. Right now it looks to be a long time from now until that happens. No real reason to do anything right now. The EV truck market is just bad.

 

[SCTesla]

The BEV tuck market is a failure.

The S/X have much higher margins than the CT. If the CT truly sells less than 25k this year, I'd think it would be at risk more than theirs highest margin vehicle in the S. The X would be chopped before the S as well.

 

[Steelheart]

There remains demand. I for one fully intent to purchase AWD once current truck is dead. But every day it becomes more and more tempting to upgrade early. A slight decrease in price or other incentives would likely push me over the line.

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