F-150 Lighting EV Cancelled. To be Replaced by EREV Hybrid Lightning

[dalton108]

Per ABRP, you can make that trip with 67% battery. I've done Colorado City to Durango without a charge... similar mileage, crossing mountains, and high speeds.

Objectively false. Show your work.

*NOTE: This is without towing!

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[henchman24]

Good point, except for the fact that the needs of a freight locomotive are so far removed from towing a 10,000 lb. trailer that the concept does not scale down well. It's not needed like it is in a locomotive.

What is it more of... is the price point for a locomotive is far different. The engineering to bring costs to a competitive level on an EREV is the limiting factor. With a locomotive, they spend millions to have the best system and saving money on a pure diesel isn't worth it. An everyday consumer isn't going to look though the same lens.

An engine being used as a generator to power electric motors is a sound theory. The ability to get it to a reasonable cost point with the proper software is the issue.

 

[henchman24]

Objectively false. Show your work.

*NOTE: This is without towing!

My result

With settings, pulled from ABRP. You've likely adjusted your consumption based upon your setup.

 

[henchman24]

I’ve never owned a diesel, nor will I ever. In my use case, my preordered Scout Harvester is going to be the better option. Until then, my Cybertruck remains insufficient and my FJ Cruiser will have to do.

Your personal instance against it doesn't mean that it isn't the better vehicle for what you're doing.

 

[freddms]

I agree with almost everything you said, except the last part. More range is needed to EV trucks to be a success.

Well, the user base would be quite small and the truck would be quite expensive.

We are not there yet. I think there are plenty of use cases for EV trucks the way most use them.

The data shows 2/3rds never pull a trailer. Other data suggests about 25% pull something more than ONE time a year. Even then, many of them are businesses that could still use electric (around town). So the actual number is probably less than 10% (but depending on your social group it may seem way too low).

I'm not disagreeing the range is a problem with trailers/boats. I'm just saying until energy density increases we won't have long haul, heavy loaded trailer EV trucks. And the CT does work for most.

 

[Aces-Truck]

It seems to me, that the goal of an EREV, is to keep the generator in reserve, until you reach a certain low SOC. Then it would run. But even then, the battery might run low, before you run out of gas. So, if you come across a charger, you use that. And the gasses tank size would be somewhat reduced.

I still think it's a flawed approach. And anyone that's worried about a Lithium battery fire, would REALLY work about having a gas tank in the mix....

 

[dalton108]

My result

Matters whether you are using a paid subscription with specific details about your vehicles consumption for the free version with generic route planning or even a paid version where you haven’t put in your actual vehicles details/linked it to your Tesla account.

My truck absolutely will not make it it’s a no go and again that’s before hitching my trailer to it. And I’m not going to Ely without my trailer.

 

[dalton108]

Your personal instance against it doesn't mean that it isn't the better vehicle for what you're doing.

I’ll take my own counsel about what’s best for me. Thank you so much.

 

[henchman24]

Matters whether you are using a paid subscription with specific details about your vehicles consumption for the free version with generic route planning or even a paid version where you haven’t put in your actual vehicles details/linked it to your Tesla account.

My truck absolutely will not make it it’s a no go and again that’s before hitching my trailer to it. And I’m not going to Ely without my trailer.

So it is your settings and with your setup (having inefficiencies with a tent and such). Not a universal.

I’ll take my own counsel about what’s best for me. Thank you so much.

You can do what you want and buy what you want. Just saying that with your use case, there are better options out there already. Those who are in your shoes of wanting this specific capability and are unwilling to go diesel (or even pure ICE gas), is a very narrow market.

 

[dalton108]

Well, the user base would be quite small and the truck would be quite expensive.

We are not there yet. I think there are plenty of use cases for EV trucks the way most use them.

The data shows 2/3rds never pull a trailer. Other data suggests about 25% pull something more than ONE time a year. Even then, many of them are businesses that could still use electric (around town). So the actual number is probably less than 10% (but depending on your social group it may seem way too low).

I'm not disagreeing the range is a problem with trailers/boats. I'm just saying until energy density increases we won't have long haul, heavy loaded trailer EV trucks. And the CT does work for most.

Again just statistics do not tell the full picture if they did, Cybertrucks would be selling like hot cakes and so would Lightnings and Rivian T models. They are not. You cannot reality distort people into thinking be believing your version of what it is that they need. The market will tell you. The market has spoken.

With regard to EREVs the market is speaking. VW group is already seeing that. Ford is listening.

 

[dalton108]

So it is your settings and with your setup (having inefficiencies with a tent and such). Not a universal.



You can do what you want and buy what you want. Just saying that with your use case, there are better options out there already. Those who are in your shoes of wanting this specific capability and are unwilling to go diesel (or even pure ICE gas), is a very narrow market.

There are not. You’re not qualified to state that there are, and I do not grant you the authority to opine on what’s best my for my scenario.

Lastly, my range is not materially different from anybody else on normal drives. You have plotted a path with a generic range estimate that doesn’t even take into account that I have a CB instead of a AWD so no you haven’t proven anything with your bogus ABRP theoretical solution. [There is an actual solution but that involves driving to Utah it makes this an 11 to 12 hour drive which is a nonstarter.]

I challenge you to load your truck up come down to Vegas and then drive up to Ely and see how far you get.

Just be sure to bring your mittens; it’s cold as balls up there.

 

[henchman24]

Again just statistics do not tell the full picture if they did, Cybertrucks would be selling like hot cakes and so would Lightnings and Rivian T models. They are not. You cannot reality distort people into thinking be believing your version of what it is that they need. The market will tell you. The market has spoken.

With regard to EREVs the market is speaking. VW group is already seeing that. Ford is listening.

And like the CT, we should wait for sales numbers to see what the actual market is saying. There were millions of deposits on CT, and we know that is factually not happening. We don't know the number of pre-orders that Scout has (though estimates seem to be around 50k, which even with the split favored to EREV, it isn't that many).

There are not. You’re not qualified to state that there are, and I do not grant you the authority to opine on what’s my for my scenario.

Lastly, my range is not materially different from anybody else on normal drives. You have plotted a path with a generic range estimate that doesn’t even take into account that I have a CB instead of a AWD so no you haven’t proven anything with your bogus ABRP theoretical solution. I challenge you to load your truck up come down to Vegas and then drive up to Ely and see how far you get.

I put in a pic with the settings that clearly state CB. It must be materially different if the delta is that much.

 

[henchman24]

I challenge you to load your truck up come down to Vegas and then drive up to Ely and see how far you get.

Just be sure to bring your mittens; it’s cold as balls up there.

I've made it from Jackson to Rawlins, Wyoming before... Colorado City to Durango. I've done my stretches in worse.

 

[dalton108]

And like the CT, we should wait for sales numbers to see what the actual market is saying. There were millions of deposits on CT, and we know that is factually not happening. We don't know the number of pre-orders that Scout has (though estimates seem to be around 50k, which even with the split favored to EREV, it isn't that many).

I put in a pic with the settings that clearly state CB. It must be materially different if the delta is that much.

Yes and you also put in 65 mph. Let me tell you something partner, you can try to drive that road at 65 mph, but I won’t. That’s cause I’m from around these parts and I know that that’s a recipe for becoming roadkill.

Also, ABRP does not appreciate the altitude change it’s only up from Vegas, the extreme wind resistance that you’re going to encounter and the temperature drop. You’ve explained that you deal with all of that in the drives that you’ve done previously and that’s great but you haven’t done this drive I have many many times.

You can do it in an AWD if you drive like a grandma and probably just make it. Then if you wish to do any of the things that one would do once they arrive in Ely you will need to spend about two hours charging at the brand new supercharger.

That’s not an experience that I’m interested in.

And, of course, this ignores the entire fact that if I’m going up to Ely, Nevada the reason I’m going is to do some recreating in which case I’m going to want my trailer with me which case means we’re not talking about whether it’s close (+/- 20 miles) … it’s not possible. Period. End of discussion.

 

[dalton108]

I've made it from Jackson to Rawlins, Wyoming before... Colorado City to Durango. I've done my stretches in worse.

I heard you the first time. I’ve given you the challenge. Let me know when you’re coming down to Vegas so that you can prove me wrong.

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