"Foundation Series Orders end 6/30/3024" Joe Tegtmeyer

[Crissa]

Osborned himself

They're still priced $30k above their reveal price, tho. And yet they filled all their production for the first seven months of ramp at $50k higher than reveal pricing!

So the people who were big fans of Tesla and put down a deposit on reveal night, nearly five years ago, should only have the option of paying over $100k for their truck or go to the back of the line. Meanwhile, people who decided to get a CT two plus years after the reveal should arbitrarily get to have the first opportunity to buy a more affordable option.

No, you could have not put down $1000 and welched on the $100k truck trying to jump the queue.

Those of us who didn't drop $1000 on a truck we couldn't afford didn't waste Tesla's time and are patiently waiting for our configuration to be available.

-Crissa

Sponsored

 

[Gurule92]

They're still priced $30k above their reveal price, tho. And yet they filled all their production for the first seven months of ramp at $50k higher than reveal pricing!

-Crissa

Oh for sure. They didn't Osborne themselves until this investor call when they said FS was ending. Now people have incentive to wait

 

[Crissa]

Oh for sure. They didn't Osborne themselves until this investor call when they said FS was ending. Now people have incentive to wait

People always had the incentive to wait.

-Crissa

 

[Gurule92]

People always had the incentive to wait.

-Crissa

It's very different when the finish line is in sight though

 

[Crissa]

It's very different when the finish line is in sight though

Yeah, but it's right where it always was!

-Crissa

 

[Gurule92]

Yeah, but it's right where it always was!

-Crissa

Easier to hold out when the big man says so though. Less likely to change.

Even if he's always late lol

 

[Michael Crosby]

I received my order confirmation 2/6/2020 (RN113249***). I received my "Ready to Order" email 5/29/2024. Went through process, and it looked active with delivery June to August. I just didn't fire. I don't want an FS. Well, actually, I do. I just don't want to spend the $$. I'm one of the lucky that isn't put off with the price particularly; it's just that I've leased two new BMW EV's in the last year. I've never leased a car before, but I'm afraid most of today's EV's will be obsolete in 3 years.
I just hope my reservation/order will stay active while I wait for the one I want - two motor 4wd.
Does anyone know for sure?

 

[chonnertruk]

Joe T on yesterday's Austin Giga flyover says that FS orders end 6/30/2024. Where did he hear this? Elon said FS ends sometime next quarter. He didn't say orders end, and he didn't say 6/30/2024.

Elon stated that at the Shareholder meeting earlier this month. No surprise here.

 

[Chris9702L]

I agree with HaulingAss. You have to be delusional if you are think they are gonna end the FS series and continue going down the list without starting at the beginning. And if these late RN numbers (118+) it’s going to take forever to get the truck. I have another order at 118 and I would venture that this is over a million. With a production rate of 250,000 (they said they would get there at the end of the year) it will take 2-3 years to get it.

 

[ThaDon]

I agree with HaulingAss. You have to be delusional if you are think they are gonna end the FS series and continue going down the list without starting at the beginning. And if these late RN numbers (118+) it’s going to take forever to get the truck. I have another order at 118 and I would venture that this is over a million. With a production rate of 250,000 (they said they would get there at the end of the year) it will take 2-3 years to get it.

You are assuming pretty high take rate that cannot be substantiated

 

[CyberTW]

You are assuming pretty high take rate that cannot be substantiated

Even if 70% of the 2million bail. That is still 600k. Let’s start there and say 70% full on cancelled. We know 20k have bought FS - so that would be 5% take rate. I hear it is closer to 2% which would mean 800k kept their reservation. But let’s just say 600k remain with reservations - but now it would be 580k after FS. Assume only 60% of the 580k still go through with it, then we are at 348K in line (that include zero who I have put money down in the last 6 months after seeing them out and about). At a run rate of 125k/year to get to a conservative 348 is about 3 years…

 

[ThaDon]

Even if 70% of the 2million bail. That is still 600k. Let’s start there and say 70% full on cancelled. We know 20k have bought FS - so that would be 5% take rate. I hear it is closer to 2% which would mean 800k kept their reservation. But let’s just say 600k remain with reservations - but now it would be 580k after FS. Assume only 60% of the 580k still go through with it, then we are at 348K in line (that include zero who I have put money down in the last 6 months after seeing them out and about). At a run rate of 125k/year to get to a conservative 348 is about 3 years…

And how are you arriving at 60/70%?

The fact of the matter is, upon initial launch, the price was so much lower and interest rates were about half of where they are now. Meaning, your carry costs have now more than doubled. You don’t know the price sensitivity of reservation holders, but given the relative lack of barrier to entry, coupled with economic factors, I think the take rate will be much lower than what you are expecting.

where’s all the people that thought their 117 / 118 RNs would be called in years? Lol

 

[Mini2nut]

I think Tesla will leave CT production at 125,000 trucks annually. They don't want supply to outstrip demand and be forced to drop MSRP's to keep the assembly lines humming.

 

[beewang]

And how are you arriving at 60/70%?

The fact of the matter is, upon initial launch, the price was so much lower and interest rates were about half of where they are now. Meaning, your carry costs have now more than doubled. You don’t know the price sensitivity of reservation holders, but given the relative lack of barrier to entry, coupled with economic factors, I think the take rate will be much lower than what you are expecting.

where’s all the people that thought their 117 / 118 RNs would be called in years? Lol

Its a $10K wager... If you are correct... you get the CT for (appx. $5~10K) cheaper. in the next 18 months.

If you are wrong... then you'll get your truck 3 yrs from now... for a saving of appx. $5~10K. Oh BTW, that's like buying an Apple Iphone 11 today for some savings... Can't say that is a wise move.. but each its own.

Cheers!

beewang

 

[CyberTW]

And how are you arriving at 60/70%?

The fact of the matter is, upon initial launch, the price was so much lower and interest rates were about half of where they are now. Meaning, your carry costs have now more than doubled. You don’t know the price sensitivity of reservation holders, but given the relative lack of barrier to entry, coupled with economic factors, I think the take rate will be much lower than what you are expecting.

where’s all the people that thought their 117 / 118 RNs would be called in years? Lol

I figure it is a good guess. Basically from last December, I am saying 300k out of 2mill will buy the truck. That’s only 15% of people who reserved. Will buy the truck… you think that guess is way off? You don’t think there are 300k on the US/NA who can afford an 80k (72k with tax credit) truck? Ok, what are you trying to prove at this point? It was an educated guess that I had to add to the discussion. You haven’t provided any of your own guesses and just been antagonistic.

What I am hearing from you is Tesla would be lucky to sell 100k trucks in the next 2-3 years, even though they are already at 20k priced at 100k/120k.

I mean ok
At 100k total in the next 2 years, that’s 5%. That’s your guess? Less? They will only sell 80k non-FS over the next couple years?

Sponsored