"Foundation Series Orders end 6/30/3024" Joe Tegtmeyer

[ThaDon]

I figure it is a good guess. Basically from last December, I am saying 300k out of 2mill will buy the truck. That’s only 15% of people who reserved. Will buy the truck… you think that guess is way off? You don’t think there are 300k on the US/NA who can afford an 80k truck? Ok, what are you trying to prove at this point? It was an educated guess that I had to add to the discussion. You haven’t provided any of your own guesses and just been antagonistic.

What I am hearing from you is Tesla would be lucky to sell 100k trucks in the next 2-3 years, even though they are already at 20k priced at 100k/120k.

I mean ok
At 100k total in the next 2 years, that’s 5%. That’s your guess? Less? They will only sell 80k non-FS over the next couple years?

What’s with the rhetorical questions lol. Of course there’s 300k people that could afford it. There’s much more. But there’s a venn diagram of buyers, many of which can afford but will not buy. Foundation series showed that and amplified it.

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[ThaDon]

Its a $10K wager... If you are correct... you get the CT for (appx. $5~10K) cheaper. in the next 18 months.

If you are wrong... then you'll get your truck 3 yrs from now... for a saving of appx. $5~10K. Oh BTW, that's like buying an Apple Iphone 11 today for some savings... Can't say that is a wise move.. but each its own.

Cheers!

beewang

Way cheaper than 5-10k if you don’t value the options (I don’t for many)

and it’s not bimodal that one would wait 3 years.

cheers!

ThaDon

 

[CyberTW]

What’s with the rhetorical questions lol. Of course there’s 300k people that could afford it. There’s much more. But there’s a vent diagram of buyers, many of which can afford but will not buy.

lol

So what is your point? They will sell every truck they produce over the next 2 years at 72-80k. Based on manager I spoke with in person today, he thought that was very very likely.
No one is saying that people got priced out.. but for everyone that gets priced out, there is others that aren’t and are very interested… 72k for a decent truck is not out of the ordinary… it’s more common that you may know.

I think you and I have exhausted this discussion.. I bid you a good day

 

[beewang]

and it’s not bimodal that one would wait 3 years.

cheers!

ThaDon

That's bet!!

Roll the dice BABY!! ?

Cheers!

beewang

 

[ThaDon]

So what is your point? They will sell every truck they produce over the next 2 years at 72-80k. Based on manager I spoke with in person today, he thought that was very very likely.
No one is saying that people got priced out.. but for everyone that gets priced out, there is others that aren’t and are very interested… 72k for a decent truck is not out of the ordinary… it’s more common that you may know.

I think you and I have exhausted this discussion.. I bid you a good day

Time will tell. People are priced out… don’t know why u say no is saying this.

now you’re changing the argument. Of course they’re gonna sell every truck that’s not my point. my point is to take rate on the reservations is likely far less than what you anticipate.

lets see. Lol

 

[CyberTW]

Time will tell. People are priced out… don’t know why u say no is saying this.

now you’re changing the argument. Of course they’re gonna sell every truck that’s not my point. my point is to take rate on the reservations is likely far less than what you anticipate.

lets see. Lol

So you think the take rate out of 2mill is less than 5% for ALL early reservation? Like, 8 months of production of non-FS will exhaust the 2 mill list? Ok, we shall see. I bet they are still going through the list by end of 2025 with 100k+ sold …I am putting actual numbers out there so you can bookmark it. I think many would agree with me

 

[ThaDon]

So you think the take rate out of 2mill is less than 5% for ALL early reservation? Like, 8 months of production of non-FS will exhaust the 2 mill list? Ok, we shall see. I bet they are still going through the list by end of 2025 with 100k+ sold …I am putting actual numbers out there so you can bookmark it. I think many would agree with me

You keep moving the goalposts. First you say three years now you say they will still be going through reservations end of 2025. Of course the latter is more likely to be true, but you aren’t being consistent in what you’re saying. Kind of crazy

 

[CyberTW]

You keep moving the goalposts. First you say three years now you say they will still be going through reservations end of 2025. Of course the latter is more likely to be true, but you aren’t being consistent in what you’re saying. Kind of crazy

What is your problem, man? I have been actually consistent and if anything moving the goal posts your way, as you seem to be blind and have provided no guess or true retorts. You have provided no discussion and just antagonistism… you joined two months ago and are very negative. I don’t have time for bitter people ?ignore

 

[PhilEsq]

That’s nuts. They’re blowing through reservations.

I know five people who passed on the FS invite. One will let his son take it, but his son wants the reg edition, one will likely not buy it at all, two bought an ICE truck, and one bought a Rivian. I estimated in my head last Nov that I would probably get in in the spring. I assumed that there would be many reasons people wouldn't buy it, such as
1) some people reserved several for resale (I reserved 2 but I reserved the 2nd 10 months later so I could get another a couple of years from now.) I will likely keep the FS I got unless there are substantial improvements when I can get the next one.
2) some people reserved at $50,000 and now it's too expensive.
3) some people had the money then but don't now.
4) some people won't be able to get financing anymore.
5) some people won't be able to afford financing at the higher interest rates.
6) some people couldn't wait anymore and bought something else, and
7) some people died.

Someone here mentioned 5% would buy it. I estimated 5-10% would buy the FS. It's likely that a lot of people who reserved won't buy it at any time, but a lot of new people will replace those people who drop out. I don't think Tesla will have any problems selling the CT going into the future.

 

[REM]

If you paid the 1,000, they could make you forfeit it or they could put you back in your place in line and hold it until your number is called, again. Almost no chance they will just let you convert, pay a lower price, and get one of the first non-FS.

I did specifically this and they converted my order to non-FS.

 

[beewang]

I did specifically this and they converted my order to non-FS.

Do you mean they kept your $1,000.00 and put you back in the line for the Non-FS queue?

Cheers!

beewang

 

[REM]

Do you mean they kept your $1,000.00 and put you back in the line for the Non-FS queue?

Cheers!

beewang

That's correct. Both my spot in line and 1K deposit are supposedly intact.

 

[SCTesla]

That's correct. Both my spot in line and 1K deposit are supposedly intact.

Great news for you.

Let us know.

Others have reported that Tesla said they could put the FS on hold or cancel and lose the deposit.

 

[CyberTW]

I did specifically this and they converted my order to non-FS.

Did they let you jump the line? I heard conflicting at my SC ?? awesome for you!

 

[beewang]

Did they let you jump the line? I heard conflicting at my SC ?? awesome for you!

I don't understand why one would "jump the line" when you refuse the invitation for the purchase of FS. Techincally... purchasing the FS is jumping the line.

Cheers!

beewang

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