Cybertruck will be profitable by end of 2024 & validation testing has begun for in-house dry cathode 4680 battery cells

[Late_Refustration]

Great news on the cost reduction, so the duel will be back to $48,000?

Like the Burr-Hamilton Duel?

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[Mini2nut]

The dry cathode 4680 cell will be the key for Tesla to achieve mass production for the Cybertruck. From what I have read the current process limits 4680 battery pack production.

If Drew B’s replacement, Bonne Eggleston, doesn’t bring 4680’s to fruition by years end Elon will probably terminate his employment. No pressure.

Dont feel bad for Drew. He cashed out $181M in Tesla stock not too long ago.

 

[Pulaski]

Nice. Also, the best-selling electric truck in America has a nice ring to it. It was only a couple of years ago that people were saying that Ford and Rivian had stolen the "first mover advantage" from Tesla in the electric truck market which doomed the Cybertruck to be a niche product.

Never mind that the narrative never made an ounce of sense to begin with. Tesla naysayers will try to amplify anything they think will sound bad for Tesla, they don't care about reality.

I think that's saying a lot to take that title in roughly 9 months after being "late to the game". Hats off to the Tesla team for what they've managed to do just this year. Incredible

 

[GuyV]

From what I've read, dry cathode problem is make-or-break for 4680 form factor.

It may be make or break for Tesla producing them but others will produce 4680s economically. Making them themselves in the US they need the dry electrodes to compete.

 

[Crissa]

It may be make or break for Tesla producing them but others will produce 4680s economically. Making them themselves in the US they need the dry electrodes to compete.

Yeah, the 4680 form factor has many advantages, just not as big without the dry process.

From being able to be machined more quickly, to square-cube law density advantages, to the mathematical advantages to fewer cells in a pack.

-Crissa

 

[Woodrick]

Maybe that's when the 500 mile version will come out.

Get over it. Stop living in the past!

 

[Woodrick]

Nice. Also, the best-selling electric truck in America has a nice ring to it. It was only a couple of years ago that people were saying that Ford and Rivian had stolen the "first mover advantage" from Tesla in the electric truck market which doomed the Cybertruck to be a niche product.

Never mind that the narrative never made an ounce of sense to begin with. Tesla naysayers will try to amplify anything they think will sound bad for Tesla, they don't care about reality.

Tesla may already be shipping more trucks that all the other manufacturers combined.

My guess is that in 1H2025, that Tesla will have made more trucks than everyone else, totaled up!

 

[lowtek]

I think we'll see a 400+ mile CyberTruck before the battery extender. The Foundation Series 4680's are called "CyberCells" for a reason, they are a hybrid stop-gap (still better than standard 4680's). The fully dry cell will be a game changer for Tesla. Expected 20% more range, less degradation (5% over 10 years, minus the initial drop which all batteries suffer from). Cheaper (eventually) to make, etc. In 3 years we'll have a completely different CyberTruck. And all of us will loose our backsides in the trade ;D

 

[mongo]

Yeah, the 4680 form factor has many advantages, just not as big without the dry process.

From being able to be machined more quickly, to square-cube law density advantages, to the mathematical advantages to fewer cells in a pack.

-Crissa

The advantages of the 4680 format exist even with the current wet electrodes.

Tesla's in-house cell production cost advantage is greatly dependent on the dry electrode process. 4680 is Tesla's only in-house cell and so its fiscal success is tied to the dry method. That is separate from technical capability.

 

[HaulingAss]

I think we'll see a 400+ mile CyberTruck before the battery extender. The Foundation Series 4680's are called "CyberCells" for a reason, they are a hybrid stop-gap (still better than standard 4680's). The fully dry cell will be a game changer for Tesla. Expected 20% more range, less degradation (5% over 10 years, minus the initial drop which all batteries suffer from). Cheaper (eventually) to make, etc. In 3 years we'll have a completely different CyberTruck. And all of us will loose our backsides in the trade ;D

What are "standard 4680's"? Are you referring to earlier production versions of the 4680 made by Tesla or early 4680 cells made by other battery makers?

I do think you are correct about getting a 400+ mile range Cybertruck, my guess is the first ones might show up as early as early 2025, however, it won't change the way I use my truck. I'm only charging mine to 70% most of the time, 80% if I want a real healthy extra margin in case my plans change mid-day. The closest I've come in the last 3000 miles to using all of the battery is an 80% charge that ended the day at 35%. That's only 45% of the battery. I haven't even needed a Supercharger yet. I do have two houses, about 90 minutes apart, both with Wall Connectors, but in my long history of using trucks, both for work and for personal use, it's pretty rare that I need a truck for long-distance driving. It does happen, but only occasionally. And the Cybertruck can already do that when necessary.

The range of the current Dual Motor has surpassed all my expectations with how efficient it is. Perhaps in winter weather a 400+ mile version will add some extra margin for those edge cases when I'm on the open road in the winter, but it's not going to change the nature of the Cybertruck for me. It already has a lot more range than I need. A 400+ mile range Cybertruck that could charge a bit faster would probably make each charge stop around 2-3 minutes quicker, not a huge game-changer, even if occasionally useful.

Honestly, the future of electric vehicles (for well over 90% of the market) is not huge range and big batteries, it's plentiful fast charging opportunities, such that a 300+ mile range isn't limiting. It's a little different use model than with gasoline, but not enough to matter. In my opinion, as long as there are plenty of well-located charging opportunities, it's a superior experience. Not many people enjoy driving a car or a truck for 4-8 hours without short rest breaks.

The only reason people think they need more range is because the charging infrastructure is still in an early nascent stage. Remember, it was only 10 years ago when most people thought the idea of electric cars and trucks replacing ICE was an impractical pipe dream. Impossible. We've come a long way very quickly, but the best is yet to come.

 

[HaulingAss]

Tesla may already be shipping more trucks that all the other manufacturers combined.

My guess is that in 1H2025, that Tesla will have made more trucks than everyone else, totaled up!

No, you have to specify "EV trucks" if you're going to speculate about that. And with 99% of the truck market being ICE trucks, ICE trucks are the real competition, not EV trucks from other makers.

 

[mongo]

I think we'll see a 400+ mile CyberTruck before the battery extender. The Foundation Series 4680's are called "CyberCells" for a reason, they are a hybrid stop-gap (still better than standard 4680's). The fully dry cell will be a game changer for Tesla. Expected 20% more range, less degradation (5% over 10 years, minus the initial drop which all batteries suffer from). Cheaper (eventually) to make, etc. In 3 years we'll have a completely different CyberTruck. And all of us will loose our backsides in the trade ;D

The current generation Cybertruck 4680s removed internal parts which allowed a 10% increase in energy per cell. The previous generation used in the Y is discontinued and that line was/is being upgraded.

20% more range would come from silicon anodes (which are already dry processed), not the cathode dry processing. Dry cathode unlocks CapEx and manufacturing cost improvements.

 

[TyPope]

Great news on the cost reduction, so the duel will be back to $48,000?

Duel. LOL

 

[igs]

Get over it. Stop living in the past!

500 miles is the future bro

 

[Woodrick]

500 miles is the future bro

Maybe, but I like to keep realistic, like within the next decade.

How much has battery capacity increased in the last decade?
How much has the Model 3 or Model Y increased their range in over 6 years?

There are new battery technologies announced every day with increased range and faster charging. But yet, here we are.

500 mile range is for those with range anxiety.

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