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Jhodgesatmb

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The dry cathode process is about the economics of battery production, not energy density.
True, but then they can start work on silicon increase and that can improve energy density.
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Jhodgesatmb

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Maybe, but I like to keep realistic, like within the next decade.

How much has battery capacity increased in the last decade?
How much has the Model 3 or Model Y increased their range in over 6 years?

There are new battery technologies announced every day with increased range and faster charging. But yet, here we are.

500 mile range is for those with range anxiety.
True, but range is also for people that haul and tow and for them it isn’t range anxiety but range reality.
 

firsttruck

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Maybe, but I like to keep realistic, like within the next decade.

How much has battery capacity increased in the last decade?
How much has the Model 3 or Model Y increased their range in over 6 years?
....

Improvements in range are NOT JUST about the battery density.

In 3-6 years, Cybertruck range could increase due to multiple different improvements to vehicle:
more battery cells
higher energy density cells
lighter weight of vehicle
better aerodynamics
more efficient inverter ( electricity conversion from DC battery to AC motors )
more efficient motor controller
more efficient motors

----------------------------------

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
2017 Tesla Model 3 Long Range, range (miles, U.S. EPA): 310
2024 Tesla Model 3 Long Range AWD, range (miles, U.S. EPA): 342


Tesla Cybertruck Cybertruck will be profitable by end of 2024 & validation testing has begun for in-house dry cathode 4680 battery cells 1721839782750-2l


https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=39769&id=47908

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anionic1

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Improvements in range are NOT JUST about the battery density.

In 3-6 years, Cybertruck range could increase due to multiple different improvements to vehicle:
more battery cells
higher energy density cells
lighter weight of vehicle
better aerodynamics
more efficient inverter ( electricity conversion from DC battery to AC motors )
more efficient motor controller
more efficient motors

----------------------------------

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
2017 Tesla Model 3 Long Range, range (miles, U.S. EPA): 310
2024 Tesla Model 3 Long Range AWD, range (miles, U.S. EPA): 342


1721839782750-2l.png


https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=39769&id=47908

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I like that the range competition seems to be picking up a little. humans always want more for less. Maybe these battery manufacturing cost reduction milestones will eventually lead to improved range.
 

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NMC vs LFP
Tesla invested in round can EV and cant get out of that mistake
BYD and CATL
Have produced a non NMC EV battery that is not limited by a mineral that cant possibly support world wide EV.
ICE to EV
Even with 100% recycling of NMC. There is not enough NMC minerals on planet Earth to produce the 1.2 Billion EV needed to replace all the ICE cars trucks semi and power grid storage needed on Earth.
So
Is round can NMC a world wide game changer?
No
NMC is a train wreck. When all of Earths NMC is gone those dead round can NMCs may be worth their weight in gold!
Maybe
That is only if we do not develop a better LFP or RT super conductive solid state storage or better low cost E storage!
Tesla sells LFP vehicles and reportedly is buying equipment for the same from CATL...
 


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You mean back to 79? Lol
When I put down my $100 deposit, it was $69,999 for the tri-motor with FSD. Tesla has placed an opportunity to buy a Cybertruck in my Tesla IOS app asking me to “Start Designing” my Cybertruck. The price of the “Foundation Series” tri-motor is $120,000. That is an additional $50,000 for not much additional. I’m waiting… This gives Tesla time to fix the bugs and upgrade the batteries to the 4680s.
 

REM

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NMC vs LFP
Tesla invested in round can EV and cant get out of that mistake
BYD and CATL
Have produced a non NMC EV battery that is not limited by a mineral that cant possibly support world wide EV.
ICE to EV
Even with 100% recycling of NMC. There is not enough NMC minerals on planet Earth to produce the 1.2 Billion EV needed to replace all the ICE cars trucks semi and power grid storage needed on Earth.
So
Is round can NMC a world wide game changer?
No
NMC is a train wreck. When all of Earths NMC is gone those dead round can NMCs may be worth their weight in gold!
Maybe
That is only if we do not develop a better LFP or RT super conductive solid state storage or better low cost E storage!
One huge factor you are missing is that EVs will never replace the number of ICE vehicles on the road 1:1; and that's by design. Not only will we eventually have a vast network of level 5 ride hailing cabs, but fixed storage battery systems will not be using that chemistry at all.

Overall, there will be far LESS cars on the road, and far LESS strain on the electric grid due to world changing improvements in surge capacity (freeing up gas/coal peaker plants).

And all this doesn't even cover the idea that our road system is about to go into 3D space with The Boring Company. Most people I talk to have absolutely zero frame of reference in how much this will change cities around the world.
 

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A 1M mile battery may be coming to fruition according to Mercedes Benz battery partner.

“These cells, developed since 2018, have undergone extensive testing and analysis, leading our engineers to confidently assert that battery packs using these cells can last a million miles over 15 years while retaining over 70% of their capacity,” the company emphasized.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/23/million-mile-ev-battery-bet-pays-off-for-mercedes-benz/
 
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Woodrick

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Improvements in range are NOT JUST about the battery density.

In 3-6 years, Cybertruck range could increase due to multiple different improvements to vehicle:
more battery cells
higher energy density cells
lighter weight of vehicle
better aerodynamics
more efficient inverter ( electricity conversion from DC battery to AC motors )
more efficient motor controller
more efficient motors

----------------------------------

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
2017 Tesla Model 3 Long Range, range (miles, U.S. EPA): 310
2024 Tesla Model 3 Long Range AWD, range (miles, U.S. EPA): 342



----------------------------------
You do know that you are comparing two different vehicles, don't you?
And that the 2017 Model 3 was increased in 2018, to something like 325, through software.

Tesla may make some changes that you outline, during the Cybertruck refresh, which is probably 5-6 years away, just as you are comparing a refreshed Model 3 to the original one.

But in the 7 years between your examples, it was less than 10%.

I believe that it was reiterated in the earnings call that Tesla's target is 300 miles. And they must be doing something right, as that's what the #1 selling vehicle in the world does.
 

HaulingAss

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NMC vs LFP
Tesla invested in round can EV and cant get out of that mistake
False. In 2023 Tesla produced more EVs with LFP batteries than NMC. Tesla is not locked into any one battery chemistry. Also, Tesla had the best-selling car in the world, gas or electric, and most of them used LFP batteries. Now, tell me how Tesla is making a mistake. :rolleyes:

BYD and CATL
Have produced a non NMC EV battery that is not limited by a mineral that cant possibly support world wide EV.
Tesla uses LFP batteries by the millions. What the heck are you talking about? Tesla has said EVs will have different battery chemistries depending upon the design requirements of different kinds of EVs and different use cases of those EVs. In fact, current production reflects this. Not every EV needs a high energy density battery.

ICE to EV
Even with 100% recycling of NMC. There is not enough NMC minerals on planet Earth to produce the 1.2 Billion EV needed to replace all the ICE cars ICE trucks ICE semi and power grid battery storage needed on this Earth.
Not only will NMC never be the only EV battery chemistry, but it's also false that there is not enough cobalt for 1.2 billion EVs, all using NMC. The known reserves could support that, and the unknown reserves are certainly larger than the known reserves. The most common NMC batteries currently use only a fraction of the cobalt vs. a few years ago.

So
Is round can NMC a world wide game changer?
No
NMC is a train wreck. When all of Earths NMC is gone and all those dead round can NMCs may be worth their weight in gold!
This kind of ridiculousness makes me wonder what kind of anti-EV interests BS you listen to. You need to become more discerning if you want to be well-informed.


Maybe but:
That is only if we do not develop a better LFP or RT super conductive solid state storage or some other better low cost power storage!
Current battery technology is already so good that EVs are more viable than gas cars. But battery technology will never stay still, it will continue to improve, both in energy density and, more importantly, with lower cost per kWh. It's not going out on a limb to say it is certain the technology will continue to get better and cheaper, we know it will.

And Tesla has not tied themselves to any one battery chemistry, they currently use two very different chemistries, split roughly 50/50, and they know the future is also one of multiple chemistries for different use cases.

So what are you ranting about?
 


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I believe that it was reiterated in the earnings call that Tesla's target is 300 miles. And they must be doing something right, as that's what the #1 selling vehicle in the world does.
The Model Y has different variants with a variety of ranges, depending upon the markets they are sold, the battery chemistry used, and different sized packs to fill different price points. Many of them have EPA ranges under 300 miles.

Different price points, different use cases. That's how the Model Y became the first EV to outsell every car that comes with a gas engine.
 

HaulingAss

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A 1M mile battery may be coming to fruition according to Mercedes Benz battery partner.

“These cells, developed since 2018, have undergone extensive testing and analysis, leading our engineers to confidently assert that battery packs using these cells can last a million miles over 15 years while retaining over 70% of their capacity,” the company emphasized.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/23/million-mile-ev-battery-bet-pays-off-for-mercedes-benz/
Tesla already has batteries that go half a million miles. A million miles doesn't move the needle much considering most cars will be sacked out or crashed by half a million miles.

I have an early 2018 Model 3 (built in March) with 72K on the odometer that still has 306-307 miles of it's original 310 miles of range left.
 

Gurule92

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When I put down my $100 deposit, it was $69,999 for the tri-motor with FSD. Tesla has placed an opportunity to buy a Cybertruck in my Tesla IOS app asking me to “Start Designing” my Cybertruck. The price of the “Foundation Series” tri-motor is $120,000. That is an additional $50,000 for not much additional. I’m waiting… This gives Tesla time to fix the bugs and upgrade the batteries to the 4680s.
But the actual price will likely never hit 49k. If you order now it's 79 then you add the foundation series. The dream of the 49k dual motor died. At least for a few years. I was a day 1 res too and am holding out. But it won't be for 49k or 79k beast.

79 dual and 99 beast is the way
 

Woodrick

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When I put down my $100 deposit, it was $69,999 for the tri-motor with FSD. Tesla has placed an opportunity to buy a Cybertruck in my Tesla IOS app asking me to “Start Designing” my Cybertruck. The price of the “Foundation Series” tri-motor is $120,000. That is an additional $50,000 for not much additional. I’m waiting… This gives Tesla time to fix the bugs and upgrade the batteries to the 4680s.
If you aren't satisfied with the price, you can get a refund of your deposit.

Life, Covid, and inflation have occurred since the introduction.

The price of the horse has been beat to death and it's left the barn. No need to discuss anymore.

If you want the Foundation Series and can pay for it, then take the opportunity.

Tesla has only made about 25,000 vehicles so far, nowhere near even a million. They are still in extremely constrained supply.

Neither the Model 3 nor the Model Y really had any "fixes."
The Cybertruck has indeed had a couple, due to subcontractors. But the Tesla designed Cybertruck is and probably will be the same for years.

Use any rationalization that you want for why you haven't gotten yours yet. Reality is that they just haven't gotten there yet.
 

MisterChilidog

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Maybe, but I like to keep realistic, like within the next decade.

How much has battery capacity increased in the last decade?
How much has the Model 3 or Model Y increased their range in over 6 years?

There are new battery technologies announced every day with increased range and faster charging. But yet, here we are.

500 mile range is for those with range anxiety.
Towing. I love my CT, but when I'm towing my cargo trailer with my 4-wheeler and camp gear, I have to admit that I'd appreciate whatever additional range might be possible.
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