How can it be so affordable?

drscot

Banned
Well-known member
Banned
First Name
Martin
Joined
Oct 25, 2020
Threads
5
Messages
279
Reaction score
201
Location
Alma, AR
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
Retired physician
Country flag
Wait, so do I get pixie dust with my CT purchase? This could really make things interesting.
Sort of...... reports suggest it will be available by monthly subscription. I'd get a spare bag. Can you imagine if you ran out over Los Angeles during rush hour?
Sponsored

 

HaulingAss

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
4,481
Reaction score
9,453
Location
Washington State
Vehicles
2010 F-150, 2018 Model 3 Perform, FS Cybertruck
Country flag
Does anyone think the price of the model Y will decrease when they start using the 4680 cells? I kind of want a model Y too. ?
I definitely think the Model Y will decrease in price as 4680 cells ramp in volume and GigaTexas is ramping up volumes of Model Y with the 4680 cells. Front and rear castings will help too. Either that or Tesla is going to be making an absolutely insane profit on an insane number of cars. I think price reductions will be necessary to hit the kind of volumes Tesla is shooting for.
 

JBee

Well-known member
First Name
JB
Joined
Nov 22, 2019
Threads
18
Messages
4,752
Reaction score
6,129
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
. Professional Hobbyist
Country flag
The 4680s actually are tougher to charge faster because of their size - they will heat up more in the middle. Their greater mass will have more thermal 'momentum'. But their advantages outweigh this disadvantage.
Your comment here conflicts with your previous post that says the tabless design helps with heat removal.

The tabless design results in much shorter electrical and heat path as both, even from the center of the cell, can travel directly out to the end of the cell. This shortened path also reduces the internal resistance of the cell which in turn creates less heat in the first place for the same amount of energy moved.

This avoids thermal build up in the middle of the cell, and also makes cooling of the round part unnecessary.

4860 cells will therefore charge much faster than previous formats. Theres engineering talk of 15minute charges with updated SCs.
 

tidmutt

Well-known member
First Name
Daniel
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Threads
8
Messages
603
Reaction score
992
Location
Somewhere hot and humid
Vehicles
Model Y Performance, Model X P100D
Occupation
Software Architect
Country flag
Your comment here conflicts with your previous post that says the tabless design helps with heat removal.

The tabless design results in much shorter electrical and heat path as both, even from the center of the cell, can travel directly out to the end of the cell. This shortened path also reduces the internal resistance of the cell which in turn creates less heat in the first place for the same amount of energy moved.

This avoids thermal build up in the middle of the cell, and also makes cooling of the round part unnecessary.

4860 cells will therefore charge much faster than previous formats. Theres engineering talk of 15minute charges with updated SCs.
I just want them to deliver some 4680 based cars damn it! Which is unfair because the 4680 are really a few years too early from all reports. Still, I want to see that it's real, sure we have conjecture that the factory will reach an acceptable yield and speed but the proof is when they start going into cars.
 

JBee

Well-known member
First Name
JB
Joined
Nov 22, 2019
Threads
18
Messages
4,752
Reaction score
6,129
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
. Professional Hobbyist
Country flag
I definitely think the Model Y will decrease in price as 4680 cells ramp in volume and GigaTexas is ramping up volumes of Model Y with the 4680 cells. Front and rear castings will help too. Either that or Tesla is going to be making an absolutely insane profit on an insane number of cars. I think price reductions will be necessary to hit the kind of volumes Tesla is shooting for.
I hope they will.

What if the Model 3 becomes the new $25k Tesla they've been talking about, using 4680 structual packs, front n rear castings and a single CF wrapped motor from the Plaid?

Can they shave $10k off? If battery is 40% of the cost...maybe?

No wonder its not called a Model 2.
 


firsttruck

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 25, 2020
Threads
172
Messages
2,537
Reaction score
4,036
Location
mx
Vehicles
none
Country flag
I hope they will.

What if the Model 3 becomes the new $25k Tesla they've been talking about, using 4680 structural packs, front n rear castings and a single CF wrapped motor from the Plaid?

Can they shave $10k off? If battery is 40% of the cost...maybe?
Also add savings to customer from
1. LiFePO chemistry battery cells
2. possible renewed U.S. Federal tax credit or rebate
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
126
Messages
16,211
Reaction score
27,071
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
Your comment here conflicts with your previous post that says the tabless design helps with heat removal.
No, no it doesn't.

The heat problem of their size is a disadvantage countered by the potential advantage of the tabless design.

We wouldn't be able to have the size without the tabless - they'd burn up. But even with the tabless, their total mass works against them.

These are both true. Just like tall is an advantage in leverage in sports - it's also a disadvantage because of all the extra weight and energy it requires to move.

-Crissa
 

HaulingAss

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
4,481
Reaction score
9,453
Location
Washington State
Vehicles
2010 F-150, 2018 Model 3 Perform, FS Cybertruck
Country flag
I hope they will.

What if the Model 3 becomes the new $25k Tesla they've been talking about, using 4680 structual packs, front n rear castings and a single CF wrapped motor from the Plaid?

Can they shave $10k off? If battery is 40% of the cost...maybe?

No wonder its not called a Model 2.
It's definitely a possibility that the Model 3 could eventually get down to $25K but that's a pretty nice car for that amount (and pretty roomy too) and they might have trouble getting it much below $29.9K, even with a small battery. Perhaps given enough time and continuing improvements to the manufacturing process it's possible.

I am also confident Tesla will announce a small "world car" within a year that is designed to sell around $25K but it will probably release in Asia and Europe before the US. That's the car people are calling the Model 2.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
126
Messages
16,211
Reaction score
27,071
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
Tesla has yet to not release a car into every market they're selling in already.

So why wouldn't they also sell the $25K car in the US, where people also buy $25K cars? (like, say, the car I own...)

-Crissa
 

JBee

Well-known member
First Name
JB
Joined
Nov 22, 2019
Threads
18
Messages
4,752
Reaction score
6,129
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
. Professional Hobbyist
Country flag
No, no it doesn't.

The heat problem of their size is a disadvantage countered by the potential advantage of the tabless design.

We wouldn't be able to have the size without the tabless - they'd burn up. But even with the tabless, their total mass works against them.

These are both true. Just like tall is an advantage in leverage in sports - it's also a disadvantage because of all the extra weight and energy it requires to move.

-Crissa
There simply is virtually no heat generation with 4680 because of the tabless design electrical and heat path length.

It will charge faster not slower as you claim.
They are better batteries unlike what you claim.

Google shows heaps of articles that all say the same. But you have to use Google from time to time to find that out. ;-)
 


Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
126
Messages
16,211
Reaction score
27,071
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
There simply is virtually no heat generation with 4680 because of the tabless design electrical and heat path length.
No.

Heat is generated in the chemical change and the electrical current.

And once the battery heats up the larger battery will have a higher internal temperature difference to its outside than a smaller battery.

The tabless design cannot change these physical constraints.

Sure, the tab no longer heats up in the center of the battery... But that heat is still generated. Just now on the edge.

The battery cell itself still heats up, it wasn't just the tab. But now it's physically larger, so heat from the inside has further to travel before it leaves the cell.

-Crissa

PS, you should be careful with Googling. Anything can be out there, make sure that it's well-supported.


The tabless design allows the cell to be larger, but it doesn't itself make the larger cell charge faster than a smaller cell. It's the chemistry that does that.
 
Last edited:

JBee

Well-known member
First Name
JB
Joined
Nov 22, 2019
Threads
18
Messages
4,752
Reaction score
6,129
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
. Professional Hobbyist
Country flag
It's definitely a possibility that the Model 3 could eventually get down to $25K but that's a pretty nice car for that amount (and pretty roomy too) and they might have trouble getting it much below $29.9K, even with a small battery. Perhaps given enough time and continuing improvements to the manufacturing process it's possible.

I am also confident Tesla will announce a small "world car" within a year that is designed to sell around $25K but it will probably release in Asia and Europe before the US. That's the car people are calling the Model 2.
Here in Germany we can already pickup a M3 SR for Eur24,000 as a business with subsidies.

Remember how EM said he would stop selling cars as soon as they have L5 FSD for robotaxis?
They were estimating a per mile cost of $0.10c.

I think its quite possible to have a $25k M3. Cost of vehicle isn't as constrained by size as the ICE market tiering would make out. In reality there is no reason to add $5k in costs per foot of car length added, be that fo an ICE or EV. Shorter EV's also typically have worse aerodynamics which requires bigger batteries etc for the same range.

The primary constraints are:
- if you have a side by side passenger layout you might as well add rear passenger seating because you have the drag anyway and;
- if you have a high performance EV drivetrain you use in every model you make, it can easily cope with the extra length
- if a shorter vehicle doesn't add range or add customer value why do it
- a smaller model adds another assembly line cost plus spare parts warehousing/training/distribution etc

My point is that there are various options to reduce cost, subsidies, time of use and manufacturing.

Progress dictates that value is added at lower cost. A $25k M3 is in the realm of possible, considering CT per foot value.
 

HaulingAss

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
4,481
Reaction score
9,453
Location
Washington State
Vehicles
2010 F-150, 2018 Model 3 Perform, FS Cybertruck
Country flag
Tesla has yet to not release a car into every market they're selling in already.

So why wouldn't they also sell the $25K car in the US, where people also buy $25K cars? (like, say, the car I own...)

-Crissa
They will sell it in the US too, but it will first be introduced to Asia and Europe before N. America.
 

HaulingAss

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
4,481
Reaction score
9,453
Location
Washington State
Vehicles
2010 F-150, 2018 Model 3 Perform, FS Cybertruck
Country flag
There simply is virtually no heat generation with 4680 because of the tabless design electrical and heat path length.

It will charge faster not slower as you claim.
They are better batteries unlike what you claim.

Google shows heaps of articles that all say the same. But you have to use Google from time to time to find that out. ;-)
Sigh....No. Listen to Crissa, she knows what she's talking about. It's disheartening to see people using the Internet to state "alternative facts" that are just plain wrong.
Sponsored

 
 




Top