MPGe help & predictions

[John K]

I edited my above message while you were typing your reply to confuse you.

Edited my post to match the edit to further confuse those trying to follow the conversation

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[Diehard]

Solar power saves the day

I was shocked by how little they used solar. Then I heard they only have around 70 around the year residents. The island has some heavy duty wind but I didn’t see any wind turbines either. My general concern is if anyone keeping track of EV growth and other increases in power consumption vs added sources of power. If supply always lag behind demand, the lower cost of ownership may no longer hold at some point.

 

[Crissa]

I was shocked by how little they used solar. Then I heard they only have around 70 around the year residents. The island has some heavy duty wind but I didn’t see any wind turbines either. My general concern is if anyone keeping track of EV growth and other increases in power consumption vs added sources of power. If supply always lag behind demand, the lower cost of ownership may no longer hold at some point.

Where would you drive an EV on a tiny island?

-Crissa

 

[Diehard]

Where would you drive an EV on a tiny island?

-Crissa

It is hilly and I saw only a few trucks to transport heavy loads. I think foot transportation is the prevalent mode. We covered half the island in half a day. If time was important in a daily commute, I would get a heavy duty electric mountain bike. Otherwise no. They don’t allow even regular bikes from outside.

I just brought it up to share that high electricity cost is possible. Not necessarily because of the same exact circumstance but simply because of other supply and demand issues (nuclear power plant going down permanently, power companies can lobby to change the laws, something happening to gas supply and everyone buying electric appliance, …). It may be unimaginable for us now because we have never seen it but it could happen.

 

[Crissa]

If the price of electricity goes up, so to will the price of gasoline. It takes energy to produce and truck and pump and well... solar and wind and batteries will just look cheaper.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

If the price of electricity goes up, so to will the price of gasoline. It takes energy to produce and truck and pump and well... solar and wind and batteries will just look cheaper.

-Crissa

Also, so long as personal solar is an option, it sets a hard cap on the cost of electricity.

If rates here rose 10x, unless the cost of going solar increases 10x as well there is an option.

 

[Diehard]

Also, so long as personal solar is an option, it sets a hard cap on the cost of electricity.

If rates here rose 10x, unless the cost of going solar increases 10x as well there is an option.

Elon thinks even if all his solar plans work out best scenario case, Electricity cost double or triple. Min 14:40

 

[ajdelange]

Hard to figure what he is really saying beyond that if the society replaces its ICE cars with BEV it's going to need about double the amount of electricity it uses now. With the implication that we should buy solar from him which lots of us would be happy to do if he could actually deliver it.

In terms of the individual, however, we now feel more confident in offering 420 Wh/mi as the consumption of the CT. If you have one which you drive the average 10,000 miles per year that means that you will require 4.2 MWh to run the car. Assuming that all this charging is done at home at 90% efficiency that implies that you will use 4.8 MWh (this allows a little for phantom drain). That's about 13 kWh/da. If your average daily utilization without the car is the American average of 30 kWh/da then your consumption will be increased by 43.6%. If you have 2 CT it will increase by 87% and I think that's what Musk was trying to say. Residential use of electricity will about double if every house has 2 BEV.

As for the cost per mile that's going to be 0.42 times whatever you pay for a kWh. If it's the average 13¢ that's about 5.5¢/mi. If you are paying 30¢/kWh that's 12.6¢/mi etc. It's also pretty easy to see that if you can get half your electricity from a solar array all those numbers drop in half.

At 70¢/kWh the strategy would be to drive to the nearest SC where you'll only pay 28¢/kWh and/or charge exclusively from solar.

 

[Cyberman]

Neighbor’s external power receptacle, extension cord and run the sprinklers to keep the cord cool.

...or just run it through the pool.

 

[JBee]

If the price of electricity goes up, so to will the price of gasoline. It takes energy to produce and truck and pump and well... solar and wind and batteries will just look cheaper.

-Crissa

Um I think it will be the other way around. The price of gasoline will become more competitive over time to stay in line with EV per mile costs. Fuel prices are kept artificially high by OPEC n Co.

Fuel in Venezuela is $0.02c per litre and Iran $0.06c. Thats the equivalent of $0.007c per kWh including ICE conversion. Fossil fuels can go low. Real low.

 

[JBee]

As for the cost per mile that's going to be 0.42 times whatever you pay for a kWh. If it's the average 13¢ that's about 5.5¢/mi. If you are paying 30¢/kWh that's 12.6¢/mi etc. It's also pretty easy to see that if you can get half your electricity from a solar array all those numbers drop in half.

What costs does the 0.42 consist of?

 

[Crissa]

Um I think it will be the other way around. The price of gasoline will become more competitive over time to stay in line with EV per mile costs. Fuel prices are kept artificially high by OPEC n Co.

That's not what they've been doing recently. There is a limit to how cheaply the supply line can provide it. Too low, and wells stop paying for electricity to pump it. They stop paying for pipelines. Refineries. Truckers. Gas stations.

It'll soon be said they can't provide it any more cheaply. So the price at the pump will go up, because profit must be made.

What costs does the 0.42 consist of?

Whatever he's guessing the Cybertruck will get kilowatts per mile, which is apparently what the Rivian uses (well 0.43 if you round up).

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

The same argument can be made to get a return on investment. Ie some money is better than none, profits are made with electricity just as much so that point is mute anyway.

They make all their own pumping power...they have fuel. The fuel costs in those nations are the cost to get it into ICE tanks. And those prices are crazy low. Solar would have to be a tenth of the cost to compete with that.

Accordingly I'd expect poorer nations to take up more fossils and ICE whilst richer ones convert to EV. What we need is a solution to develop RE in poorer nations instead so they don't have to go through the fossil development cycle in the first place, like China did.

There are huge opportunities in doing so with embedded solar and storage, along with personal electric mobility all at a more affordable cost and none of the air pollution. All without the need for a grid too, because power can be moved "wirelessly" with batteries. Just like how wireless phones took off because nobody was interested in investing into copper phone line infrastructure. They can and should leap frog our tech and battery powering everything directly makes that possible without the dependency, manipulation, problems and cost of centralised energy distribution.

 

[Crissa]

Moving power by trucking batteries is super-inefficient.

The assumption there's massive oil supply being pent up but ready to flood the market is... highly unfounded.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

Moving power by trucking batteries is super-inefficient.

The assumption there's massive oil supply being pent up but ready to flood the market is... highly unfounded.

-Crissa

"Trucking power" was never a feature of people in these parts that can't even afford sandels to walk on.

Their reality is quite different.
The world is bigger than just California.

Their primary electricity use is for lighting. So the kids can study at night because they have to work after school (if they have an ed at all), so they can do handicrafts at night to pay school fees and books, or food, for security so they don't get robbed or raped, so they can cook meals after work, so they don't die of kerosene fume inhalation (thats 3.8million a year by itself according to WHO), or burn to death because the kids have to hold their precious books so close to the kerosene lights so they can read them they end up knocking them over and burning their huts down to the ground (countless 2nd 3rd degree burn victims to boot).

The second most important use is mobile phone charging, so they can organise work and trade, organise transport of goods or a shared lift in the bed of a ute, transfer phone credit as payment for goods, or get some online education, entertainment or news.

News about California that has massive wildfires that cause massive enviromental destruction and pollution, because most of them start from electricity grid sparks.

All possible with small independent solar and some personal batteries that can be carried by foot.

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