@SawyerMerrit discussed new CyberTruck model lineup: base, mid, tri, quad, plaid

[TAP1A]

You had better timing than I did. But we’re well on the way back to 1100 now.

honestly i can see TSLA hitting 2k this year easily with both giga austin and berlin going live

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[Ogre]

honestly i can see TSLA hitting 2k this year easily with both giga austin and berlin going live

… or revisiting 600.

It’s such a crazy ride.

$2,000 would not hurt my feelings.

I figure $1,250 when they announce Cybertruck production start date and $2,000 when Cybertruck starts shipping. Because we all know Cybertruck underpins it all.

 

[Crissa]

Their profit per car increase hasn't been close to their cost increases.

No, in 2021 the profit went up faster than the price. Their cost went down.

-Crissa

 

[anionic1]

Yes, it could get better with a SWAG Gen2/3 innovation.

IF such an @Ogre fifth power source/converter provided an orthogonal solution that enables Tesla to maximize direct drive motor constant velocity(RPM) efficiency, such as a flywheel/converter innovation - Tesla would then be able to add surge power on demand. SO Tesla would have a single high power solution instead of multiple high performance motors for the entire line of single, dual, tri and quad motor.

THUS Tesla could minimize all motor expense but one as its power motor and optimize for efficiency all the other variants to generate maximum range in any combination. Those would operate at highway constant velocity efficiency 85% time.

Tesla’s big investment would be in a single power/converter unit. That would enable Tesla to optimize(i.e.vectoring)at the wheel rather than ganging drive motors into heavy differential units, as is its current drivetrain convention.

Life in a Cybertruck would not feel different but each variant would truly vary the maximization calculus. It also opens the vehicle’s development roadmap, if you have a single source power to engineer and only optimizing the platform thereafter to achieve application specificity.

"Such as a flywheel/converter innovation" sounds like a magic black box. A flywheel also sounds very heavy to do any significant movement of a 6000 lb vehicle. I am certain that if there was a better solution to power transfer, Telsa would think of it.

Getting massive amounts of power from one single source in instantly variable amounts to 4 separate wheels would very likely require more weight in differentials/shafts/torque converters. EVs are really not designed to handle drive shafts due to the large battery pack in the middle of the vehicle. You mention converting power at the wheels from a single motor. You need to get that rotational power from that single source to the wheels. And the torque of an electric motor is significantly higher that a ICE engine so that drive shaft would need to be very large and heavy. Their larger motor and gearbox assembly weighs about 200 lbs from what I have read. Its likely that the solution you are proposing will weigh a similar amount and even if it does weigh slightly less the space it wastes would be a big issue. Or you can electronically bring power via a fairly light and malleable cable to the wheel and convert the power at each wheel via a motor like they currently do.

My two cents is that the next big advancement will be really good, lightweight, wheel hub motors. Mark my words. Tesla is all about getting redundancy out of the feature, i.e. the unibody, the structural battery pack. Why not a wheel that also houses a motor. I know some EV vendors out there are going this approach already and there will surely be more. Now with global EV focus we will see some of these "holy grail" advancements. Solid state batteries, graphene windings in motors. I keep telling my kids that they will fly to work in the future and I hope I am right.

 

[Crissa]

Average truck price is $40-50k. At $90k, Tesla is hitting their top end trucks, the gravy. At $55k, they are targeting the meat and potatoes of the market.

Full-sized trucks are now averaging just shy of $60k.
https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2021-07-1...-All-Time-High,-According-to-Kelley-Blue-Book

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Their profit per car increase hasn't been close to their cost increases. They are charging more because they have the demand and they have spent a lot of money and they want to grow more. It has nothing to do with curbing demand.

Can you please provide a source for this information which contradicts Teslas financial statements?

 

[Bill906]

I don't know, since no one has written an article on it and I haven't watched all of Munro's videos yet.

Did they eliminate the rear differential in the Plaid powertrain?

-Crissa

I went back and rewatched the video.

Comparing the New Model S plaid with the old Model S Ben says:

...one other thing that they did integrate here is they don't have a differential on the rear they have the two motors so they're doing torque vectoring each motor is driving one of the rear wheels it's not like the front where there is a differential...

 

[anionic1]

Can you please provide a source for this information which contradicts Teslas financial statements?

As soon as you provide a source that says they are raising their cost to curb demand.

 

[Ogre]

As soon as you provide a source that says they are raising their cost to curb demand.

You are posting nonsense which contradicts Teslas financial statements.

Your attachment with these imaginary facts makes it hard to have any sort of dialog which makes sense.

 

[Blue Steel]

I am okay with this. I would love a Quad Motor version for offroading but might not be able to afford it. I will take a Tri-Motor with 500 miles. I want to get out of my gas-powered Wrangler asap. It is in fine shape but I am ready to be done with maintenance and fuel cost.

This is my guess as to the prices if announced in Nov 2019.

Base Dual - $40k
Mid Dual - $50k
Tri-Motor - $70k
Quad Motor - $90k
Plaid - $110k

I see the logic in this and I hope you're right, but I personally think it will be more like this:

Base Dual - $50k*
Mid Dual - $60k*
Tri-Motor - $70k
Quad Motor - $90k
Plaid - $110k

* People with single or dual motor reservations can choose one of those options.

And there will be some vague mentions of hoping to build a single motor truck when the market conditions are right, but in reality it will never come.

 

[jerhenderson]

Average truck price is $40-50k. At $90k, Tesla is hitting their top end trucks, the gravy. At $55k, they are targeting the meat and potatoes of the market.

not around here....

 

[jerhenderson]

… or revisiting 600.

It’s such a crazy ride.

$2,000 would not hurt my feelings.

I figure $1,250 when they announce Cybertruck production start date and $2,000 when Cybertruck starts shipping. Because we all know Cybertruck underpins it all.

I dunno..... let's see where Austin and Berlin opening gets us, a Q or 2 of big volumes..... CT gigapress seen being delivered.... BOOM

 

[anionic1]

Can you please provide a source for this information which contradicts Teslas financial statements?

See clips below from their financial statement. My statement is simple. Tesla went from a 26.5% gross margin to a 30.6% gross margin. That's a 5.1% increase in profit on the vehicles. The Model 3 base increased in price about 23.6% and went from about $38k to $47k. The Model Y base went from $50k to $60k. That's a 20% increase. Carissa's statement that their profit has gone up faster than the price and that the cost went down is very very inaccurate. Their profit has not increased at the same rate as the price of the cars because it is costing them more to build the cars due to global supply chain issues. They are definitely not increasing cost to curb demand. One would easily deduce that if they are charging 20% more and they are making 5% more profit then its costing them 15% more to make the vehicle.

 

[Crissa]

See clips below from their financial statement. My statement is simple. Tesla went from a 26.5% gross margin to a 30.6% gross margin. That's a 5.1% increase in profit on the vehicles. The Model 3 base increased in price about 23.6% and went from about $38k to $47k. The Model Y base went from $50k to $60k. That's a 20% increase. Carissa's statement that their profit has gone up faster than the price and that the cost went down is very very inaccurate. Their profit has not increased at the same rate as the price of the cars because it is costing them more to build the cars due to global supply chain issues. They are definitely not increasing cost to curb demand. One would easily deduce that if they are charging 20% more and they are making 5% more profit then its costing them 15% more to make the vehicle.

You do understand that doesn't show what you want it to, right?

Sales at the new prices don't show up until six to eighteen months after they're set. Costs, though, would show up immediately. Your chart shows margin increasing by 5 points (not 5%) by the end of the year and the prices having been raised by 20% earlier. 5 points is >20% of 24.

-Crissa

 

[anionic1]

You do understand that doesn't show what you want it to, right?

-Crissa

Please provide your evidence that their profit went up 5% and their cost to build the cars went down yet the product cost increased by 20%.

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