CT Delivery Freeze nationwide due to necessary software update

[DMSTR]

Yup! Sorry I was too busy setting it up and driving.
Had to wait an hour for them to prep it and then another hour to inspect and report a couple things, started driving and it was raining pretty bad, but she’s home!

7 other people doing pickups at that time, all Model Ys, and 3 of them seemed more excited to check out the truck in the middle of their own deliveries lol.

Ha ha ha. Well of course the Cybertruck was the main event. Congratulations!

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[HaulingAss]

By your logic, and following Tesla's capacity table:

- Cybertruck production capacity is pretty close to 125,000.
- 3/Y production capacity is pretty close to 2,125,000.
- S/X production capacity is pretty close to 100,000.
- Total production capacity is therefore pretty close to 2,350,000.

I think the S/X number is valid, because (1) Tesla actually did produce a maximum of about 100,000 S/X per year in the past, and (2) there is no ">" in the capacity table.

But the other numbers are too low. Here is another piece of public information: Tesla's total production capacity in early 2025, on existing lines, was "close to three million":

"Close to three million" is not the same as "pretty close to 2,350,000". So unfortunately, the "most straightforward analysis" doesn't seem to work.

You are not following what I actually said. Cybertruck production capacity being pretty close to 125,000 (within 25,000 or so) does not imply the other numbers with a ">" are pretty close to the value stated. Remember, the ">" sign does not have a percentage attached to it, it means exactly what it says, greater than, we don't how much greater and Tesla doesn't feel the need to tell us how much greater.

Even without that observation, I find your analysis odd because 60% more than 2024 production would be 2,837,509 vehicles (without needing to add more production lines). But they said "more than" 60% of 2024 production. So, let's round it up to 2,880,000 vehicles, which is easily "approaching 3 million vehicles" when speaking in general terms with large round numbers. That's 530,000 more (or 20% more) than their stated production capacity low ends add up to, implying the ">" signs average only 20% more, the same percentage that I think the greater than sign implies for the Cybertruck production capacity, without a new production line.

I guess I don't see where you are going here. The numbers add up if you bother to actually calculate them with reasonable assumptions. We don't even need to assume that Tesla has used the "greater than" sign to hide production capacities 30-50% higher than actual. I think they are all reasonable numbers with a little (~20%) potential upside (and the math supports that).

And if you want a little more color on the interpretation of Tesla's guidance, I would say they know they can probably fine tune production processes, without going to the expense of adding more lines, to increase throughput of existing lines if needed. They are probably also thinking the new unboxed method of the Cybercab will have increased throughput on the same lines. This is not needed to explain their guidance, but it gives them additional headroom to very comfortably make the statements they did. You are thinking about this in an absolutist manner, while Tesla is thinking about production capacity in a more realistic and more accurate manner. It's not an exact science, it has to be thought of realistically and strategically. There are significant unknowns and they are not going to get their panties in a wad trying to plan everything out to a gnats eyelash - they are thinking and talking in sweeping broad generalities, exactly how they have to strategically plan for the best and worst case scenarios.

 

[YDR37]

Even without that observation, I find your analysis odd because 60% more than 2024 production would be 2,837,509 vehicles (without needing to add more production lines).

Nothing odd here, we agree. Tesla produced 1,773,443 vehicles in 2024. In the 1Q 2025 financial report, Tesla proposed to increase production by "more than 60%". If it was just 60%, that would in fact be 2,837,509.

But they said "more than" 60% of 2024 production. So, let's round it up to 2,880,000 vehicles, which is easily "approaching 3 million vehicles" when speaking in general terms with large round numbers.

OK, we agree again. If we round up to 2,880,000, that would be a 62.4% increase, which does seem reasonably consistent with "more than 60%".

That's 530,000 more (or 20% more) than their stated production capacity low ends add up to, implying the ">" signs average only 20% more, the same percentage that I think the greater than sign implies for the Cybertruck production capacity, without a new production line .... I think they are all reasonable numbers with a little (~20%) potential upside (and the math supports that).

A few quibbles with "the math" here. First, 2,880,000 is actually 22.6% more (not 20% more) than the implied minimum production capacity of 2,350,000. Second, I don't think there was any potential upside for the S/X lines; their capacity maxed out at 100,000 years ago (which is why they didn't get a ">" in the capacity table). So the proposed production increase would have to be accomodated on the 3/Y and CT lines (which do get a ">").

The 3/Y and CT lines have total implied capacity of 2,250,000. So to get to 2,880,000, we would have to add 630,000 more vehicles on those lines, or 28%.

I previously threw out an estimate of "about 25%", which is not that much higher than your "~20%" estimate:

The math only works if you boost all of the ">" numbers by about 25%.

 

[bwslt]

My CT on containment hold in Dallas since last week. Can't get anyone to tell me why. Anyone else? Just trying to find out how long I should expect it to take. Thanks

 

[DMSTR]

My CT on containment hold in Dallas since last week. Can't get anyone to tell me why. Anyone else? Just trying to find out how long I should expect it to take. Thanks

Mine as well. In Louisville, KY. My delivery was to be Saturday (2 days ago) and I received a phone call Friday evening at 7:00 PM. A sales person said my CT had to be inspected by Service on Monday (today).

I called the dealership today and reached someone in the service department. He stated that the system said my truck was on containment hold and that no fix was listed yet in the system. He said that only means that they haven't assigned the task to it yet. After a few minutes he stated someone just responded to his inquirie and said it was an issue with the "VSH terminal splay". He said he expected it to take as much as 2 or 3 days.

I just found this other thread on this forum: https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...ainment-hold-financing-expiry-question.57394/

 

[HaulingAss]

Nothing odd here, we agree. Tesla produced 1,773,443 vehicles in 2024. In the 1Q 2025 financial report, Tesla proposed to increase production by "more than 60%". If it was just 60%, that would in fact be 2,837,509.

OK, we agree again. If we round up to 2,880,000, that would be a 62.4% increase, which does seem reasonably consistent with "more than 60%".

A few quibbles with "the math" here. First, 2,880,000 is actually 22.6% more (not 20% more) than the implied minimum production capacity of 2,350,000. Second, I don't think there was any potential upside for the S/X lines; their capacity maxed out at 100,000 years ago (which is why they didn't get a ">" in the capacity table). So the proposed production increase would have to be accomodated on the 3/Y and CT lines (which do get a ">").

The 3/Y and CT lines have total implied capacity of 2,250,000. So to get to 2,880,000, we would have to add 630,000 more vehicles on those lines, or 28%.

I previously threw out an estimate of "about 25%", which is not that much higher than your "~20%" estimate:

OK, so it looks like we don't really disagree on any of that. I thought this whole discussion came about because of the claim Tesla had a production capacity of 250,000 Cybertrucks (when, in fact, it's closer to half that. I know this was not your claim, it was someone implying that Tesla is only making a tiny percentage of the production capacity they paid for, which is simply a false narrative since it's based on a fictitious 250,000 capacity. They have room to grow to saturate their existing production capacity, but it's not the tiny percentage of existing capacity that "other" poster tried to push.

Without having to go back and re-read everything, what exactly was the point you were originally making? Keep in mind, these are all spit-ball numbers, there's no such thing as exact figures.

 

[visualsiam]

ok, back on topic. I was supposed to accept delivery of my PAWD cybertruck yesterday. I got a text Saturday morning about an inspection and they needed to push delivery until Tuesday. Now today I got a text saying they need to hold it indefinitely until headquarters lets them know how to perform a specific inspection. When I called asking what is the problem, no one seemed to know. I was told an advisor would call me, and still havent heard anything. I wouldn't mind if there is an issue, but the vaugeness is really worrisome.

 

[DMSTR]

ok, back on topic. I was supposed to accept delivery of my PAWD cybertruck yesterday. I got a text Saturday morning about an inspection and they needed to push delivery until Tuesday. Now today I got a text saying they need to hold it indefinitely until headquarters lets them know how to perform a specific inspection. When I called asking what is the problem, no one seemed to know. I was told an advisor would call me, and still havent heard anything. I wouldn't mind if there is an issue, but the vaugeness is really worrisome.

It definitely sounds like we're in the same boat. My delay was said to be due to a needed inspection but today the SC told me he sees a ticket stating "Containment hold". He also said it reads "VSH Splay issue". I know I'm repeating what I wrote previously but this thread has become a little muddy. Another thread on this forum also highlights this same issue: https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...ainment-hold-financing-expiry-question.57394/

 

[cyberonetwo]

Also under a containment hold here. Can't get anyone to give me any information about why. I am getting really frustrated with the situation. Was previously told they would have more information on the 8th, now they are saying the 13th. And then however long the remedy takes...

 

[sameen79]

Hi, I’m also awaiting delivery in Sioux Falls, SD. I ordered my AWD CT on April 7, and the VIN was issued on the 20th. The CT has been sitting at the Minnesota center for the past two weeks in a containment hold, apparently awaiting inspection procedures from HQ.
So far, the only update from the delivery manager has been to “wait,” which is quite frustrating. Keeping my fingers crossed, as this is my first experience with Tesla.
Have any existing Tesla owners experienced something similar? If so, how long did it take for the issue to be resolved and delivery to move forward?

 

[Sephiroth]

It seems this is a manufacturing defect in a battery harness? Not sure how many VINs are affected and looks like they don’t have replacement parts yet.

 

[visualsiam]

It seems this is a manufacturing defect in a battery harness? Not sure how many VINs are affected and looks like they don’t have replacement parts yet.

How do you know this?

 

[Sephiroth]

How do you know this?

Conjecture, based on what others have been reporting in this forum.

 

[bwslt]

Any updates from anyone? Not hearing anything on my end.....still no info on exact reason or timeline.

 

[visualsiam]

Any updates from anyone? Not hearing anything on my end.....still no info on exact reason or timeline.

Absolutely nothing...and everytime i ask they are intentionally vague about what the problem is. They just keep mentioning waiting guidance for a specific inspection.

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