2nd Wave of Order Invitations Arriving❗️CHECK YOUR APP or TESLA.COM ACCOUNT

[WormtownKris]

now I only have dueling anecdotal accounts

Let me see where you correct my understanding of the facts or your point.
Please correct me on the following info as I know it:

• For the Model 3 pre-orders, Tesla required not $100, but $1000 (refundable)
• You were a day 2 Reservation Holder Correct. ~5pm EST Day 2.
• By August 2017, there were 455,000 net reservations. Quite possibly. Do not recall. Wikipedia says yes.
• July 28 2017, Model 3 Delivery Event
• June of 2018, you took delivery No. Invited to configure. Received the car in late September. The delivery queue was about 3 mos long. (Why I do not expect them to continue to invite ~1000 CT configurations per week while they are still likely building less than 100 per week).
• July 20 2018, Tesla opens reservations to anyone with a $2,500 (non-refundable), including topping up from people who previously had $1K res’s down

Separately, help me understand your view of the numbers:

• In all of 2017, Tesla delivered 1,800 M3
• By July ‘18, had delivered 28,216 M3 Probably, but by the end of September, that number was significantly higher as the ramp up was progressing well. More like 84,000.
• Meaning, when Tesla opened reservations, there remained 424,984 ‘early’ reservation holderswho had not taken delivery Which is not what I was discussing above. I was talking about how far through the queue they were, not how many had physically ordered and taken delivery.

Which stats are why a day 2 reservation holder, such as yourself, hadn’t taken delivery until June (September) 2018. Tesla had delivered only 6% of Mod 3 early res holders when they opened reservations in July 2018.(and the % invited to configure (in the continental US?))

From there, best I can understand your comments, is you *seem* to suggest that

(A) this is fine Your numbers here are a straw man.
(B) you got some features people after you didn’t (but boy, there a LOT of people after you) Not necessarily, but pretty much all the first weekend reservationists in the continental US and parts of Canada had been invited to order what was currently available.
(C) you suggest, but don’t come out and say, that people who put down $2,500 deposits in July didn’t get their cars until after 425K people with $1,000 Nope. I suggest that pretty much all of the early reservations were invited to configure if Tesla was delivering to their region. Not saying July 2017 reservations were delivered. But April 2016 reservations in the delivery territory were invited to order.

this last suggestion (maybe you didn’t intend it), is incorrect. I did not suggest that.

Subsequent to July 2018, whether an original or “Johnny come lately” (your words), Mod 3s were delivered ~equally (all else equal). Allowed to configure, and likely buy cancellations off the lot.

Which is why there are plenty of anecdotal reports out there from early Mod 3 reservation holders - who stood in a physical line to give $1,000 to Tesla - who didn’t take delivery until after their neighbor, brother in law, etc., who were a “Johnny come lately.” I'm sure there are some. Tesla was undergoing heavy growing pains in all aspects. Did they order immediately, or did they wait and decide if they'd accept this or that different trim? Did Johnny next door get to order, wait for, and take delivery before they were asked, or did Johnny buy one off the lot that wasn't the color or wheel choice these folks wanted?

So I’m left still unsure what I’m misunderstanding about either your post, or the relevant facts. Hopefully it is more clear now.

At which point, let’s go back to your this comment:

proportionately, only ~60,000 CTs (of ~1M (Franz says >2M in the Leno video posted yesterday) relevant pre-orders) would need to be delivered before opening reservations to mirror the M3 situation. Straw man numbers. I acknowledge that what is "early" is subject to interpretation, but proportionally, most early reservations in the delivery territories of that time would have to be invited to configure.

And with the M3 situation, that was after people had stood in physical lines outside stores to put down $1,000.

Now, my earlier comment you replied to above was brief and pithy. The intent wasn’t to seriously suggest a likelihood that Tesla would open new reservations as early as mid-2024. Or that there’s precedent they’ve don’t it this early. Probably not, but you DO make that pithy comment over and over again on multiple threads. I figured I would give you a counterpoint. You can say it is a data point of 1. But I encourage you to do a deep dive into the number of people who got screwed over in 2017/2018 before making a generalization like that. 425,000 people did not get passed over. Europe did, Asia, South America and Australia did. (Short range and Performance folks couldn't get their chosen cars yet, but they were invited to order what was available at that time).

More that, in terms of historical precedent, Tesla isn’t above even blowing up lines. And that, where predicting what Tesla will do with the CT, anything unexpected seems possible these days. If Biff once got into a scuffle at a bar, he's quite likely to become a mass murderer. Equal analogy, correct?

Afterall, Tesla is currently and already not following reservation numbers, or historical precedent, so as to let people with $20K premiums step forward - and appears to be planning to do so for months and a few thousand units to come. As you well know, Tesla always begins with a carefully curated Founders/Signature Series. And with significantly new vehicles (not MY, which was 80% M3 with new body panels), they always begin close to the factories and radiate out. What's new here is that some of the 1000 Foundation Series are not illuminati. Also, no one selected a FS series on their reservation. "Their" truck has not started production yet.


If Tesla has by ~August of 2024 taken ~30K configurations (half of the 6% / 60K figure), would it be so bananas to say Tesla could allow new people to configure? Based on historical precedent, yes. And even more so if they did it now as you suggest is possible.

I think it’s very unlikely they’ll have configured 30K by then, or will open the configurations in 2024.

But if I’m being brief and pithy, right now I wouldn’t bet against anything - afterall, Tesla’s shown their not above it.
It would greatly surprise me. Cheers.

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[drrjv]

ONLY every 8 hours! HA! You stinking rookie! If I thought I had a chance, it'd be every 15 minutes!

Maybe Tesla should allot Cybertrucks based on how many times you check your order status on their website!

Going to check right now!

 

[cvalue13]

appreciate the feedback. And for folks who share your bearings they’ll be convinced.

I don’t share your bearings on this, though


My data is *not* a “strawman”. Your initial response to me said: “There were not a lot of EARLY reservations left behind me in the line.”

Fair enough, if all you meant was “the first 6% of registration holders had been able to configure, and the guy on this post is within the first 6% of registration holders, so it’s not true Tesla has ever opened the line before the first 6% of registration holders have configured”

To that end, you’re right: when talking literally about whether Tesla could open the line before mid-2024, before the first 6% of pre-orders have configured, it’s not a good literal statement.

But again, my post wasn’t meant to raise this history as a literal precedent, instead only to show that when this guy wonders when he might be selected to configure, at the moment the pithy answer “who the f*ck knows with Tesla”

I’m left not certain what to make of your vehement disagreement with a brief and pithy statement of that sort.

Except that you go on to suggest that you’ve seen me make this comment elsewhere and felt a need to finally correct:

“Probably not, but you DO make that pithy comment over and over again on multiple threads. I figured I would give you a counterpoint.”

I don’t think I’ve ever made *that* pithy comment in any other thread.

In other threads, I’ve pointed out this history only in the context of people discussing whether Tesla will follow the pre-order numbers for the ~entirety of the “line.”

In that context, it is neither pithy nor inaccurate to point out that with the Mod3 Tesla blew up the line after only 6% of pre-orders:

• had taken delivery
• after a $1,000 deposit
• a multi-year wait

The relevance there is obvious. And, all the more so when CyberTruck pre-orders only required $100 fees.

Which brings me next to your point about there being MORE CT pre-orders, as though that’s a fact in your favor.

First, while Franz repeats the 2M pre-orders figure we’ve heard before, on investor calls Musk has only ever repeated the 1M pre-order figure, and to me the reason for this is obvious: 2M we’re global, with ~1/2 of those being irrelevant and misleading under investor call regs bc the non-NA pre-orders are irrelevant to date (it’s not a legit SAM for Tesla anytime soon).

But whether it’s 1M or 2M the point still remains, and is arguably MORE applicable with the CT than it was with the Mod3 with 455K pre-orders

You blow up the line because:

(1) you don’t want have a vehicle essentially unavailable to the public for years on end,
(2) even the $1,000 deposit isn’t enough to weed out non-serious buyers who sit on invites for weeks on end, etc.
(3) you need a BOOKABLE revenue infusion, which refundable deposits don’t satisfy, but $2,500 non-refundable deposits do

Contrary to your suggesrion that the CT length of the line means Tesla won’t blow up the line until much FURTHER out in time, proportionately, at best the lesson here is it could be the same or sooner.

Having 1M to 2M “looky-loos” with mere $100 refundable is operations and financials garbage for Tesla.

If ramp is slow, and come Q3 you nee BOOKABLE CT revenue to offset COGs etc, you say “first people to put down $5K non-refundable deposits get to cut the line”

If 100K people do it by YE, you’ve got yourself half a billion in BOOKABLE value.


So no, in the context of OTHER threads, where I point out the VARIOUS historical ways Tesla hasn’t viewed “the line” as sacrosanct, my comments there were neither pithy nor inaccurate.

Tesla’s not merely blown up the line before, it’s done it when it’s had arguably LESS reason to do so than with the CT.

Which:

“If Biff once got into a scuffle at a bar, he's quite likely to become a mass murderer. Equal analogy, correct?”


No, the correct analogy (not *your* strawman) goes:

Statement:

“Biff would never punch anyone” / “Tesla views the line as sacrosanct”

Reaponse:

“Biff has punched people before, and then when people hadn’t given him as good a reason to” / “Tesla doesn’tview the line as sacrosanct, even when they had less reason to deviate”

 

[Invitrokid]

is it a foundation edition? Break out the cigars!

Yes, It was for a foundation series. I pulled the trigger and it gave me a delivery timeline of Jan 2024 to Mar 2024. I put my info in the tracker

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Only daily? Amateurs. I check at least every 8 hours round the clock!

All I ever see is this though:

Ever since @cvalue13 announced that some reservation holders (that didn’t receive email invites) were able, for a few hours, to configure, I have checked almost hourly.

 

[WormtownKris]

[/QUOTE]

appreciate the feedback. And for folks who share your bearings they’ll be convinced.

I don’t share your bearings on this, though


My data is *not* a “strawman”. Your initial response to me said: “There were not a lot of EARLY reservations left behind me in the line.”

Fair enough, if all you meant was “the first 6% of registration holders had been able to configure, and the guy on this post is within the first 6% of registration holders, so it’s not true Tesla has ever opened the line before the first 6% of registration holders have configured”
etc...

I appreciate your counterpoints as well. I guess we will need to agree to disagree. There were 6% who configured, but there were many more who had the option and chose not to. Waiting on different configurations and whatnot. There were many others in other locations who were passed over because Tesla wasn't exporting to Europe/Asia/Australia/etc. (Their transport resources have much improved by now, pending local pickup truck regulations per jurisdiction). So, to suggest 6% were invited to configure is to suggest a 100% take rate.
I was a Day 2 reservation, in New England, and they did work their way to me a month before open reservations. I did not see any evidence that I was chosen by lottery, but rather, that they had processed North American reservations up to mine by then. Do you feel I won a raffle to order that soon? Once they are ramping, the tranches of invites will be much larger, and they won't give three weeks grace to decide. They will invite more and more to fill the production queue.
There were people in other regions, people who waited, and people holding out for AWD, Performance, etc options to start production. I do not have any hard numbers on how many reservations were placed in the first 20- 24 hours, but it was a lot more than 6%, and I believe that they worked through those before they got to me. Do you feel that I skipped the line?
At any rate, I do not feel that Tesla is going to piss everyone off and just do a lottery for the ~two million reservations. I think it will go regionally, radiating out from Austin and Freemont, as they've done in the past, and then ~quickly expand to the rest of North America. It seems that the most recent orders already have spread out from the TX/CA concentration of the first batch. Maybe they feel they can ~safely go "nationwide" by the time 500 trucks are on the Tesla-centric roads? Will they send out 2 million invites before your Austin neighbors can pick up an inventory truck? Probably not. But I do not think that it is reasonable or likely that they will scrap the waiting queue after a few thousand trucks, and that seems to be the message you imply on various threads.
Respectfully.

 

[cvalue13]

There were 6% who configured, but there were many more who had the option and chose not to. Waiting on different configurations and whatnot.

I just assume this is equally or more true with the CT

esp given resulting CT specs, pricing, interest rates, vs 2019

I did not see any evidence that I was chosen by lottery, but rather, that they had processed North American reservations up to mine by then. Do you feel I won a raffle to order that soon?

no, bc again, prior to your configuration they had only delivered ~20K units

and no, while deliveries do not equal configurations, we can assume that Tesla opens configuration % on some relative parity to their expectation to delivery %


By YE 2018, Tesla had delivered a total of 146K units

prior to your configuration 100% of those had been to people with pre-orders. For the remainder of the year past your configuration, it was some mix of going to pre-orders and new comers - whomever had $2,500 non-refundable, to be exact.

So taking the ~20K delivered before your configuration, and the remaining ~120K delivered after your configuration but before YE 2018, even if between June and Dec 80% of deliveries were to pre-orders (which seems unlikely to me but), that means only 96K of 455K pre-orders were delivered by YE 2019, and some 24K newcomers had taken delivery meanwhile

To which you seem to find relevant notions that maybe pre-orders didn’t convert, or didn’t want to order available configs, etc. Which is simultaneously possibly true of the M3 pre-order people, but also likely equally or more true of CT pre-order people. I. Other words, there is no material distinction to be made there. If anything, that distinction runs against your point more than for it: the M3 pre-order people had down larger deposits than CT, M3 ultimate pricing wasn’t as materially higher as CT, and M3 interest rates remained materially flat compared to CT.

What’s left is the point that, ignoring conversion rates (because there’s no reason to think the CT will be better) as a constant:

However many of the remaining 355K pre-orders were left by YE 2018, they had already for 6 months seen their pre-order “place in line” be replaced by “whomever has a $2,500 non refundable deposit” - themselves included.

But I do not think that it is reasonable or likely that they will scrap the waiting queue after a few thousand trucks, and that seems to be the message you imply on various threads.

Again, because I don’t want this inaccurate allegation to stand:

what you say above is a fair critique of my quip in this thread to a member wondering if he’ll order anytime before mid-2024 - I didn’t mean that quip here in this thread the way I’ve deployed it elsewhere.

Elsewhere, I’ve deployed it only against, eg, people suggesting that “with 1M/2M pre-orders it’ll be YEARS before people without pre-orders can configure a CT”

THAT, is precisely where it is relevant to point out that Tesla has precedent for thinking it is not viable to honor “the line” for years on end.

For reasons alluded to before, if nothing else, people should have their head’s on a swivel for at some point Tesla to need to book revenue against CT COGs.

And how they do that, as with the Mod 3 in the past, is to begin taking larger and non-refundable deposits that can be booked as revenue… by whomever has $2,500 non-refundable seriousness.

Am I guaranteeing that happens? No.

I’m responding to people suggesting to others to rest easy, because Tesla would never do it.

That, is patently false. They have. And they could. And with the CT, they have more reason to than with Mod3.

 

[Alan]

If I recall the time almost all the 3 reservation holders thought they were going to get a 35,000 dollar single motor car. Tesla came out with a dual motor that cost a lot more. Tesla went through the reservation line their just. Wasn’t that many takers. They wanted the 35,000 dollar car. In this case only 20% reserved single motor. The rest of us are seeing pretty much what we expected. I think the take rate will be pretty high and I don’t think Tesla will drop. The line till the take rate is below production rate.

 

[cybrtrk88]

Apparently more invites are out right now (manage reservation or app) none here.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Apparently more invites are out right now (manage reservation or app) none here.

Nothing for my RN.

 

[Bkb13]

Apparently more invites are out right now (manage reservation or app) none here.

 

[BLUR1895]

Urgent alert for WA owners, mine was back in App! Ordered:

 

[Bkb13]

This guy had a second cyber truck show up!

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

This guy had a second cyber truck show up!

That is just depressing :-(

 

[cvalue13]

This guy had a second cyber truck show up!

two configurations, the second one on a pre-order he made after Nov. 30

@WormtownKris

this is the sort of 'fuck if i know' we've been discussing

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