A new U.S. based giga factory just for Cybertruck

MEDICALJMP

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Based on what?

You have no idea what demand would be like if production were online.
Respectfully, neither do you. These are my estimates based on the real world observations and knowledge of human nature.

Part of the demand for Tesla right now is based on scarcity. People want what is in short supply. Think toilet paper. (And let’s face it, most Tesla owners are part of a cult.) You flood the market with 20 million Model 3s and the bottom drops out. World-wide new car sales are about 71 million vehicles of all types each year.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/?back=https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&as_qdr=all&as_occt=any&safe=active&as_q=Any+new+cars+are+sold+in+the+world+each+year&channel=aplab&source=a-app1&hl=en

So you think Tesla, today, is going to sell one third of the WORLD demand with 20 million cars in a year? No. Not today. The demand for 20 million EVs/year isn’t there and the infrastructure isn’t there. That takes time.

Most people are not ready for EV adoption. Range anxiety. Car fires. Charging station locations, apartments without charging, etc. I spend time convincing green people that BEVs are safe because they see on the news a BEV fire but don’t realize 225,000 US car fires of gas cars happen each year. There are too many who listen to FUD. You give them the facts and they are still fearful of their home and car burning down. The average Jane and Joe are not ready for wholesale adoption of EVs. Yet.

And then you have to fight the entrenched interests, which are the car dealers and the automobile companies and the oil companies. Even Biden’s plan is 1/2 of EV vehicles in US sales by 2030. And there are those coal-rolling cretins who HATE electric cars and will never buy one until they must as the cost of gas will be a mega-rich status symbols (sort of like EVs and super cars are now). People need time to adapt.

Your precious rebate you are all planning on is not a done deal. Nothing is law yet and it could change to a lower amount. Do you think that the US government can pay out 250 billion dollars on car rebates a year? That is 1 year of rebates on 20 million cars at $12,500/car for 1 year. Money like that comes from more than soaking the rich. If you can afford a Tesla you can afford the large tax increase that 20mm car rebates will require.

And that’s just the United States. Most of the European continent is looking for the change to electric vehicles. Not everybody there is. Electric vehicles are too costly (for now). Battery costs are still way too high right and we can’t get that cost down until we get rapid production of the 4680 cells. Musk has talked about that multiple times. Japan, who started the electric car revolution in the modern era, has turned their back on electric vehicles largely. It doesn’t help when their biggest auto manufacturer CEO rejects electric vehicles in favor of hydrogen. Transport Evolved had a nice video about that subject. Japan had a big setback on adoption of electric vehicles after the tsunami and two months of lack of electricity. They’re not ready for anyone to dump 20 million cars they can’t charge into their infrastructure. How many electric vehicles can Canada absorb right now? Russia? India? Think about the power grid in the US. Today, is our electrical grid capable of handling 20 million EV cars being plugged in overnight? Certainly not in California. There are 15 million cars registered in California now.
https://www.statista.com/statistics...of-registered-automobiles-in-the-us-by-state/

“Researchers determined that parts of the electric grid are at risk of eventually being overloaded by large vehicles’ charging needs if system upgrades or alternative solutions are not simultaneously implemented.”
https://electrek.co/2021/09/15/egeb...vernor-will-ramp-up-offshore-wind-deployment/


It’s gonna take some time to build up that charging capacity.

If you want to push back electric vehicle adoption you can do it by not having the capacity to charge your car when you want or need it. If the power grid is unreliable you are going to have people flocking back to gas. You say, “JEFF, I have a solar system and power walls. Everyone can just be cool, like me, and install solar.” Congratulations on your green credentials. I can’t afford solar. Neither can most people in America with the current cost structure. Even if they can afford it you can only build capacity up at a certain rate. None of this is at the snap of Thanos’ fingers. That is here in the developed world. Electrical systems are much more unreliable and poorly equipped in the developing world.

I want Tesla making and selling 20 million cars a year, but it take steps to get there; not wishes, feelings and good intentions. The world right now cannot handle 20 million electric cars a year being added to the system now. That is reality. As Jack said, “Truth?! You can’t handle the truth!”
 
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Ogre

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Respectfully, neither do you.
Don’t claim to know. You made an impossible to verify claim, I was just pointing that out. It's really hard to pin down what demand might be if manufacturers caught up with demand. No prices wouldn't need to collapse. More models would get introduced at lower prices.

What we do know is it is higher than what Tesla is able to produce.

Also, people are not hoarding Teslas because they are in short supply.
 
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MEDICALJMP

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Wishes, hopes and dreams are all you offer as a rebuttal.
 

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It seems like the demand for Tesla vehicles are so high, it has enough demand for one more Austin like Giga-factory either in Texas or something else in US. We are a long way from 20M cars production a year.

My thinking is: While the demand is so sky high, the Fed tax credit will be available for the next 10 years with no cap, and there is no shortage of funds from investors, why not build more factory now? Eventually, Tesla will have to do it. Just my current feeling. YMMV.
Giga Austin is a gigantic facility. Sometimes, looking at images or even videos, it is easy to think of it as a normal factory. Can you imagine a factory that is 2/3 of a mile long and 1/4 of a mile wide? They can probably have 8 simultaneous manufacturing lines, maybe more. It looks as though they will have close to 12 gigapresses when fully operational and each of those, when fully tested, can put out 1,000 units per day. Agree with @Crissa that Tesla should hit full production before thinking about the next factory, and expand the GigaAustin property if it needs more factory soace.
 

anionic1

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Tesla will build another factory for the CT for sure once production ramps up. Just like they are doing for all their other models
 

MEDICALJMP

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Mostly don't have time to read a silly book based on fantasy.

We have no clue what demand for EVs is. Pretending you have a crystal ball makes you look like a dope.
Calling names shows the weakness of your argument.

And you hurt my feelings. 😢
 

HaulingAss

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Really? Look how many people bought, and are hoarding, incandescent light bulbs when the Bush 2 administration ordered those dinosaurs phased out of production! I know people who have more of those than they will use in my lifetime.
That just goes to show, you can't outlaw stupidity!

No one has claimed that there won't be some people who will stubbornly resist EV's by continuing to buy ICE vehicles long after it makes any practical sense to do so but those people will be largely outnumbered by rational consumers who want the most value for their money (and the nicest, most convenient car with better performance and reliability).

Even in the roaring twenties and through the depression that followed there were traditionists who refused to give up their horse and cart to get to the market but they were outnumbered by people motoring by them in their modern Model T's, giving a warning with their horn that they were approaching from behind. People felt sorry for them and assumed they couldn't afford the modern conveniences of civilized life. So, of course there will always be a certain percentage of technological luddites who don't move with the times but, in the bigger picture, the holdouts don't matter. Not at all. The world changes without them on board and nothing is ever going to change that fact.

“But, but, but, JEFF, EVs are going to be cheaper and then they’ll HAVE to not buy a gas car.” 1) No, they won’t. Some people are going to buy gas cars until they absolutely can’t anymore. On December 31, 2034 I can guarantee you there will be people buying up the last legal ICE cars on the lots just so they car drive gas engines for the next 5-15 years and flip all you tree-huggers the bird. 2) BEV cars are not cheaper yet. When Tesla gets the 4680 cell out there in mass production and if it is as grand as Mr. Musk claims that will be a game changer. Add in affordable solid state batteries to that mix, too. Until then we pay a premium for BEVs which is why they want to have a government BEV welfare program to lower the cost of those vehicles. 3) Make more battery producing manufacturing plants first. Currently Tesla has 3 vehicles waiting for 4680 batteries: CyberTruck, Semi, and the Roadster 2; which has been delayed until 2023. If you don’t have enough batteries you have nothing to put in to power all those cars you are producing. Then you have 90% finished vehicles sitting in lots waiting for batteries as the OEMs currently are doing as they wait for semiconductors and other parts in their broken supply lines. Giga Austin and Giga Berlin need to open. Battery cell production is planned at each location. They have to produce those mythical 4680s in high, usable quantities first.
Your argument is an odd combination of there won't be enough demand for EV's and there won't be enough batteries to build all the EV's.

I'm confident there will be demand for all the cars Tesla can build for years to come and any other manufacturer who can build them efficiently enough and in high enough volumes to sell EVs comparable to Tesla at close to comparable prices will sell all they can make as well.

From my perspective, it comes down to battery supply. And I think you will be astonished at how quickly Tesla is able to ramp to huge volumes of batteries. Especially considering they will not be the only ones increasing production. In 2014 the naysayers said no modern manufacturer of complex heavy industry products has ever ramped as quickly as Tesla projected they would ramp auto production.- It was physically impossible to hit half a million cars by 2020, they said. But Tesla hit their 2020 production goal that was announced in 2014 right on the money. The naysayers were proved wrong once again.

Sure, they like to use Tesla's Full-Self Driving program to portray Elon Musk as someone who constantly over promises and under delivers but the facts show that he delivers impressive results time and time again where it really matters, on the bottom line. Results that most observers smugly said were impossible. That's why smart people do not bet against Elon Musk. Only dumb people like analyst Gordon Johnson.

Elon has said they have 4680 cell production in the bag, they just have to iron out a few kinks in the production process. In a year or so you will see the most impressive ramp of battery production the world has ever seen. This is a physical production process that does not have the vagaries of the development of artificial intelligence that is necessary to master for delivering working FSD. It's a simple physical process that needs some fine tuning to perfect yields. Elon and company have shown they are masters of solving problems like this and also of building and maintaining strong supply chains and they have the attention to detail to make it happen.

So, while nothing is certain until it actually happens, don't bet against Elon Musk.
 
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Ogre

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The idea that people will hoard $50k cars the same as they hoard toilet paper has got to be the most insane ideas I've heard in a long time.

"I bought 5 of them, I'm parking them in the back yard for when I run out. Wife and I had to take a second job to pay for it, but it's worth it, when everyone else is out of EVs, we'll have a couple of spares."
 

Ogre

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According to one of the Tesla talking heads on YouTube there is not enough income in India (population yes, income no) to warrant a plant there. Average income there is $3,168.00 per year.
Much like China, concepts like "average" income greatly distort reality over there. There are 1.3 billion people in India. Most of them are in poverty, but much like China, there is also a large middle class making decent money. When jobs get outsourced to India, those folks get paid half to a third what US tech workers make, but that's still a decent income, particularly in a country where the cost of living is low.

Sounds like they want to import cars into India but aren't committing to large scale production right now.
 

HaulingAss

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I want Tesla making and selling 20 million cars a year, but it take steps to get there; not wishes, feelings and good intentions. The world right now cannot handle 20 million electric cars a year being added to the system now. That is reality. As Jack said, “Truth?! You can’t handle the truth!”
This argument is a red herring because no one said Tesla could materialize 20 million cars per year right now. Not this year, not next year and not the year after. The most optimistic projections I've seen don't project that before 2025 or after. Even with help from other manufacturers I think it will be at least 2024 before total annual EV production reaches 20 million and it might take Tesla until 2027 to hit that number internally.

In other words, there is plenty of time for the grid to continue to add capacity. Just as it did when air conditioning, TV's and all the new appliances and electric heaters increased electrical demand dramatically back in the 1960's. EV's are just a fraction of total demand, it's not the problem the naysayers make it out to be and a lot of utility experts agree.
 

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Even with help from other manufacturers I think it will be at least 2024 before total annual EV production reaches 20 million and it might take Tesla until 2027 to hit that number internally.
I think those numbers are very optimistic.

Tesla is on track to have capacity to manufacture 2-3 million cars a year by 2023. It's hard to see Tesla hitting 20m in 6 years. The rest of the industry save China doesn't seem to be moving even as fast as Tesla. Maybe the Chinese are going to dominate this game?

But that's the supply side, @MEDICALJMP was suggesting *demand* doesn't exist. We know there is a ton of demand, it's just impossible to say how much when supply is so tight.
 

MEDICALJMP

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I think those numbers are very optimistic.

Tesla is on track to have capacity to manufacture 2-3 million cars a year by 2023. It's hard to see Tesla hitting 20m in 6 years.

But that's the supply side, @MEDICALJMP was suggesting *demand* doesn't exist. .
If you had bothered to read, but by you own admission you did not, I said TODAY the demand is not there. The original poster said the Tesla should be building factories before they’re needed. I pointed out why a smart innovator and manufacturer like Elon Musk does not make a factory before the need it there. Please do not ascribe words to me I did not say. In 2021 the demand for 20 million EV cars a year is not there. That will build over time. I said that then pointed out some of the reasons why you don’t build the supply before the demand is there, @HaulingAss .

Nor did I say that people were hoarding electric vehicles. That’s something you twisted to bolster your weak argument. Perhaps you should stick to the facts and not try to tear others down because you failed at what should be a friendly discussion.
 
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HaulingAss

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I think those numbers are very optimistic.

Tesla is on track to have capacity to manufacture 2-3 million cars a year by 2023. It's hard to see Tesla hitting 20m in 6 years. The rest of the industry save China doesn't seem to be moving even as fast as Tesla. Maybe the Chinese are going to dominate this game?
That's why I qualified it by saying "at least", I was speaking towards the "most optimistic" projections. Because I was countering the idea that availability of enough electricity would limit growth of EV's.

Tesla's factories are only going to become more efficient, which is to say they use the learnings from the previous generation factory to increase volumetric and speed efficiencies. That means with each new generation of factory they can produce more cars in less space and at a quicker rate. This lowers cost which increases demand. It's the people who don't understand this, who think in terms of the status quo, who put traditional limits on what is possible.

The large OEM's have operated in this stagnant and lazy fashion for far too long and we have all paid for it with increasing costs every generation. The average purchase price of a new car in the US (even an outdated one without any batteries) has climbed over $40K recently and manufacturers were allowed to get away with it for one reason and one reason only: Because the barriers to entry for a new company were too high and all large automakers had become fat and lazy.

Elon knew that EV's provided a narrow window, an opportunity to jump over the significant barriers to entry by bringing a luxury EV to market that was superior to existing cars and leverage that success into a mass market EV that could be wildly successful as battery production volumes were driven up and prices fell. It was a brilliant move and the disruption is not over.

Elon knew the extra expense of batteries and lower volume production required a laser like focus on cost efficiencies for this to work. That same focus on efficiency is going to continue to pay big dividends in how fast they can expand production because Elon knows that demand is unlimited at the right price. Yet there are still people who look at traditional competition as if Elon hasn't just blown it wide open. People who think the status quo is still intact - that manufacturers can compete simply because they are ALL fat and lazy and have too much overhead and lack the ability to quickly reiterate their factory designs to continually improve and efficiency and production speed/volumes.

That is failing to see what is really going on here and how Elon was able to break into a market with huge barriers to entry. The barriers to entry are so big that Tesla is the ONLY new car company in America in almost a century to become profitable. And there is a list of around 100 that tried and failed. He did it by beating existing manufacturers on cost and yet some people are still running around saying that only rich people can afford a Tesla. By the time they realize only rich people can afford vehicles powered by ICE, it will be too late. And those who think traditional manufacturers can easily pivot to EV and compete with Tesla on price will be proven wrong. As Tesla grows, legacy auto's addressable market will be constantly shrinking. Because it will be composed only of that portion of the market that Tesla cannot yet fill. Price matters. Ask any consumer.

Those who think others can compete on price haven't been paying attention to what is going on here. Watch and see.
 
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