Respectfully, neither do you. These are my estimates based on the real world observations and knowledge of human nature.Based on what?
You have no idea what demand would be like if production were online.
Don’t claim to know. You made an impossible to verify claim, I was just pointing that out. It's really hard to pin down what demand might be if manufacturers caught up with demand. No prices wouldn't need to collapse. More models would get introduced at lower prices.Respectfully, neither do you.
Giga Austin is a gigantic facility. Sometimes, looking at images or even videos, it is easy to think of it as a normal factory. Can you imagine a factory that is 2/3 of a mile long and 1/4 of a mile wide? They can probably have 8 simultaneous manufacturing lines, maybe more. It looks as though they will have close to 12 gigapresses when fully operational and each of those, when fully tested, can put out 1,000 units per day. Agree with @Crissa that Tesla should hit full production before thinking about the next factory, and expand the GigaAustin property if it needs more factory soace.It seems like the demand for Tesla vehicles are so high, it has enough demand for one more Austin like Giga-factory either in Texas or something else in US. We are a long way from 20M cars production a year.
My thinking is: While the demand is so sky high, the Fed tax credit will be available for the next 10 years with no cap, and there is no shortage of funds from investors, why not build more factory now? Eventually, Tesla will have to do it. Just my current feeling. YMMV.
That just goes to show, you can't outlaw stupidity!Really? Look how many people bought, and are hoarding, incandescent light bulbs when the Bush 2 administration ordered those dinosaurs phased out of production! I know people who have more of those than they will use in my lifetime.
Your argument is an odd combination of there won't be enough demand for EV's and there won't be enough batteries to build all the EV's.“But, but, but, JEFF, EVs are going to be cheaper and then they’ll HAVE to not buy a gas car.” 1) No, they won’t. Some people are going to buy gas cars until they absolutely can’t anymore. On December 31, 2034 I can guarantee you there will be people buying up the last legal ICE cars on the lots just so they car drive gas engines for the next 5-15 years and flip all you tree-huggers the bird. 2) BEV cars are not cheaper yet. When Tesla gets the 4680 cell out there in mass production and if it is as grand as Mr. Musk claims that will be a game changer. Add in affordable solid state batteries to that mix, too. Until then we pay a premium for BEVs which is why they want to have a government BEV welfare program to lower the cost of those vehicles. 3) Make more battery producing manufacturing plants first. Currently Tesla has 3 vehicles waiting for 4680 batteries: CyberTruck, Semi, and the Roadster 2; which has been delayed until 2023. If you don’t have enough batteries you have nothing to put in to power all those cars you are producing. Then you have 90% finished vehicles sitting in lots waiting for batteries as the OEMs currently are doing as they wait for semiconductors and other parts in their broken supply lines. Giga Austin and Giga Berlin need to open. Battery cell production is planned at each location. They have to produce those mythical 4680s in high, usable quantities first.
Much like China, concepts like "average" income greatly distort reality over there. There are 1.3 billion people in India. Most of them are in poverty, but much like China, there is also a large middle class making decent money. When jobs get outsourced to India, those folks get paid half to a third what US tech workers make, but that's still a decent income, particularly in a country where the cost of living is low.According to one of the Tesla talking heads on YouTube there is not enough income in India (population yes, income no) to warrant a plant there. Average income there is $3,168.00 per year.
This argument is a red herring because no one said Tesla could materialize 20 million cars per year right now. Not this year, not next year and not the year after. The most optimistic projections I've seen don't project that before 2025 or after. Even with help from other manufacturers I think it will be at least 2024 before total annual EV production reaches 20 million and it might take Tesla until 2027 to hit that number internally.I want Tesla making and selling 20 million cars a year, but it take steps to get there; not wishes, feelings and good intentions. The world right now cannot handle 20 million electric cars a year being added to the system now. That is reality. As Jack said, “Truth?! You can’t handle the truth!”
I think those numbers are very optimistic.Even with help from other manufacturers I think it will be at least 2024 before total annual EV production reaches 20 million and it might take Tesla until 2027 to hit that number internally.
If you had bothered to read, but by you own admission you did not, I said TODAY the demand is not there. The original poster said the Tesla should be building factories before they’re needed. I pointed out why a smart innovator and manufacturer like Elon Musk does not make a factory before the need it there. Please do not ascribe words to me I did not say. In 2021 the demand for 20 million EV cars a year is not there. That will build over time. I said that then pointed out some of the reasons why you don’t build the supply before the demand is there, @HaulingAss .
That's why I qualified it by saying "at least", I was speaking towards the "most optimistic" projections. Because I was countering the idea that availability of enough electricity would limit growth of EV's.I think those numbers are very optimistic.
Tesla is on track to have capacity to manufacture 2-3 million cars a year by 2023. It's hard to see Tesla hitting 20m in 6 years. The rest of the industry save China doesn't seem to be moving even as fast as Tesla. Maybe the Chinese are going to dominate this game?