Buying the FS CT Isn't Logical

[Adrenalinwill]

If I may add some context based on actual experience, my 2013 Model S #9624 was absolutely perfect. No panel gaps, no door handle issues. Only down side was there was only three supercharging locations in CA when we picked up the car in Fremont and drove it back to LA. 138K miles later and still loving it. My son’s 2019 Model 3 # 3850 is perfect as well, best part was FSD was $5000…..again, zero issues and still running strong after more than 65K miles.

obviously I’m an early adopter but you’d be amazed how the quality differs when Elon puts just a pinch of focus on the production line during the initial production phases. The horror stories 8 hear about the latter phases of Tesla cars….don’t think I’ll wait for the non-foundation Cyber truck when most of the issues can be resolved via over the air updates.

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[Tiberius]

That's the trait of an awesome software development team. They recognize that there may be other ways to solve the problem and they have enough guts to throw away code.

And software techniques are continuously change, like AI.

So why don't you think that it will occur in existing cars? What is HW3 missing that is needed. One of the reasons why the move to HW12 and more AI is actually decreasing CPU needs.
But CPU upgrades are pretty easy.

HW3 must be lacking otherwise they wouldn't have replaced it already. From the work of folks like Greentheonly on X it seems that HW4 isn't plug compatible with HW3, more importantly, Elon has already said there won't be an upgrade.
The camera positioning for HW3 means that it can't see enough which makes any odd junction difficult even if the camera resolution was good enough.
All of which means that HW3 can only ever be L2 driver assist, I'm sure it will get really good but won't ever be autonomous.
That doesn't stop it from being good though and good enough for many people (including me) ?

 

[Woodrick]

HW3 must be lacking otherwise they wouldn't have replaced it already. From the work of folks like Greentheonly on X it seems that HW4 isn't plug compatible with HW3, more importantly, Elon has already said there won't be an upgrade.
The camera positioning for HW3 means that it can't see enough which makes any odd junction difficult even if the camera resolution was good enough.
All of which means that HW3 can only ever be L2 driver assist, I'm sure it will get really good but won't ever be autonomous.
That doesn't stop it from being good though and good enough for many people (including me) ?

This is ludicrous thinking. Just because the computer that I got 6 years ago is working doesn't mean that I can or want to buy the same one today.

Why design a CPU that is less powerful into a design where a more powerful one is cheaper?

I've got an application that uses a 5GB SSD drive. If I build a new one today I can hopefully get a 5GB SSD, but a 250GB is going to be SIGNIFICANTLY CHEAPER. That doesn't mean that the application needs it, still doesn't use it.

FSD is doing an awesome job with HW3 today. V12 is supposed to have even lower CPU requirements.

Yes, Elon said that an upgrade isn't expected, that's because it isn't needed. He and Tesla absolutely promised the Model 3 owners that FSD was going to run on the car and that they would upgrade the hardware as needed. Hence the first upgrade from HW2.5 to HW3.

 

[Tiberius]

This is ludicrous thinking. Just because the computer that I got 6 years ago is working doesn't mean that I can or want to buy the same one today.

Why design a CPU that is less powerful into a design where a more powerful one is cheaper?

I've got an application that uses a 5GB SSD drive. If I build a new one today I can hopefully get a 5GB SSD, but a 250GB is going to be SIGNIFICANTLY CHEAPER. That doesn't mean that the application needs it, still doesn't use it.

FSD is doing an awesome job with HW3 today. V12 is supposed to have even lower CPU requirements.

Yes, Elon said that an upgrade isn't expected, that's because it isn't needed. He and Tesla absolutely promised the Model 3 owners that FSD was going to run on the car and that they would upgrade the hardware as needed. Hence the first upgrade from HW2.5 to HW3.

agreed on the upgrades, how well FSD is doing on HW3 - except we already know that HW3 was designed with a pair of CPU's for redundancy, but both are now used because they ran out of compute a while ago. FSD doesn't need redundancy because it already has it, we are the FSD redundant backup
The other 'except' is that FSD is designed to be L2 - all of the marketing is for an L2 system. Notice that nowhere on the Tesla site or the Tesla filings ever mentions Robotaxi or "fully autonomous". That only gets mentioned in earnings calls etc that start with statements to the effect of nothing mentioned here can be taken as a committment.
In fact Tesla have expressly stated to various agencies that "Autopilot" and "Full Self Drive" are L2 driver assistance features, not autonomous driving.
We can already see from current performance, the HW3 cameras are physically not in the right place for handling junctions, it can't just lean forward like we do, it can only creep forward so far before it causes a hazard.
As I said, FSD will be a really good driver assistance, and HW3 will definitely deliver that. It cannot deliver a robotaxi without more compute, better camera positions and redundant self drive computers.

 

[Crissa]

FSD doesn't currently have a path to L4 or L5.

But that's because there isn't a path currently.

That doesn't mean there won't be, forever. We haven't defined what is exactly needed to qualify for those levels yet, hence only being available in a few cities right now, on a temporary basis.

Tesla doesn't want to play that game. They want to continue working on what they have so they can scale it as wide as possible, as cheaply as possible.

So it's mostly a waiting game for the regulations to define what they need to be fully autonomous. After the accident in SF, it may be that the tolerance for error is going to be so low, different cameras are going to be required - no lidar would have seen the woman under the wheels!

But we're going to see alot of movement on that front in the next two years. That last 1% have been hard, but we're to the point they can, in most conditions, drive safer than humans.

-Crissa

 

[Tiberius]

FSD doesn't currently have a path to L4 or L5.

But that's because there isn't a path currently.

That doesn't mean there won't be, forever. We haven't defined what is exactly needed to qualify for those levels yet, hence only being available in a few cities right now, on a temporary basis.

Tesla doesn't want to play that game. They want to continue working on what they have so they can scale it as wide as possible, as cheaply as possible.

So it's mostly a waiting game for the regulations to define what they need to be fully autonomous. After the accident in SF, it may be that the tolerance for error is going to be so low, different cameras are going to be required - no lidar would have seen the woman under the wheels!

But we're going to see alot of movement on that front in the next two years. That last 1% have been hard, but we're to the point they can, in most conditions, drive safer than humans.

-Crissa

Also agree with this point, just because there isn't a path doesn't mean it will stay like that, if anyone is good at this it is Tesla.
Really I don't have a problem with FSD in current cars, I have a problem with Tesla hiking the price every so often because of the "potential".
That's the great thing, others have a different perspective and have acted on it which is great.
I've been proven wrong on some Tesla predictions and right on others ?‍, really enjoy the discussions with folks who can be civil and don't take a different viewpoint as a personal attack.
Maybe the thread title should be "Buying the FS CT isn't logical - for me"

 

[Cyberer]

Also agree with this point, just because there isn't a path doesn't mean it will stay like that, if anyone is good at this it is Tesla.
Really I don't have a problem with FSD in current cars, I have a problem with Tesla hiking the price every so often because of the "potential".
That's the great thing, others have a different perspective and have acted on it which is great.
I've been proven wrong on some Tesla predictions and right on others ?‍, really enjoy the discussions with folks who can be civil and don't take a different viewpoint as a personal attack.
Maybe the thread title should be "Buying the FS CT isn't logical - for me"

That would ruin the story ?.

 

[Celiboy]

For those who did buy the model 3 when it first came out, did it come with enhanced autopilot? I had a co-worker who bought earlier than me and he had it but said he didnt remember opting for it specifically. Also, was there alcantara in that one? If im not just making these things up, then it seems like there was at least some reason that it was more expensive. But i can totally get the feeling you get when they lower it after you early adopted. They made white free right after i paid extra for it and i was salty lol

I have a 2018 M3 and Enhanced Autopilot was an option we bought. It didn’t come with it. Or were you asking if it was an option in 2018?

 

[HaulingAss]

Maybe the thread title should be "Buying the FS CT isn't logical - for me"

It's good to see you are learning from this discussion!

 

[Woodrick]

agreed on the upgrades, how well FSD is doing on HW3 - except we already know that HW3 was designed with a pair of CPU's for redundancy, but both are now used because they ran out of compute a while ago. FSD doesn't need redundancy because it already has it, we are the FSD redundant backup
The other 'except' is that FSD is designed to be L2 - all of the marketing is for an L2 system. Notice that nowhere on the Tesla site or the Tesla filings ever mentions Robotaxi or "fully autonomous". That only gets mentioned in earnings calls etc that start with statements to the effect of nothing mentioned here can be taken as a committment.
In fact Tesla have expressly stated to various agencies that "Autopilot" and "Full Self Drive" are L2 driver assistance features, not autonomous driving.
We can already see from current performance, the HW3 cameras are physically not in the right place for handling junctions, it can't just lean forward like we do, it can only creep forward so far before it causes a hazard.
As I said, FSD will be a really good driver assistance, and HW3 will definitely deliver that. It cannot deliver a robotaxi without more compute, better camera positions and redundant self drive computers.

Uh, no. I'm pretty sure that they don't use both CPUs for FSD. Sure, Tesla uses both CPUs, but they are still redundant. (They sometimes use the other CPU to run test software in some vehicles).

FSD is not designed to be L2, that's total BS.

Yes, Autopilot and the FSD Beta code do require human intervention. Duh.

HW3 cameras are in quite satisfactory positions. The car enters a creep often, because like so few humans, it actually stops at an intersections stop bar. Which those stop bars often require a human to creep forward to see past. But my car does a great job doing it today.

FSD currently handles the vast majority of traffic situations. If anything, it would be considered too cautious today.

The SAE Autotonomy levels, are pretty much BS as far as I'm concerned. They were created in an age where L5 was not possible and are more like Science Fiction than anything else. The details of each section are based on how a classic computer should drive, not as a human would drive. With AI, the car drives like a human.
Also, SAE created the levels, but didn't really answer the important questions around the levels. Like how do you quantify each.

Tesla isn't going to go the traditional route to FSD. They aren't going to go L3 and then L4. I mean Mercedes with their L3, it's completely laughable. It's next to useless.

Elon mentioned years ago that they were after the big picture. They could have easily driven across country 3 years ago, but that's not their goal.

And Elon said that HW3 is still on track for FSD and that they are focusing efforts on HW3 FSD at this time, HW4 will be about 6 months lagging.

I use FSD every day, it's truly awesome!

 

[CyberGus]

Uh, no. I'm pretty sure that they don't use both CPUs for FSD. Sure, Tesla uses both CPUs, but they are still redundant.

 

[TexasRaider]

Purchasing ANY “new” vehicle isn’t logical. ??
Only buy used, if you want to be logical… ????

 

[Woodrick]

 

[CyberGus]

"Friends ask me, when should they buy a Tesla. Well, either buy it right at the beginning, or when production reaches a steady state. But during that production ramp, it's super hard to be in vertical climb mode and get everything right on the little details. It's just a super difficult thing."
- Elon Musk

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-best-time-to-buy-tesla-quality-issues-2021-2

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