Buying the FS CT Isn't Logical

[HaulingAss]

That where I differ
I think that FSD is overpriced at @12k and not worth it. EAP is just about worth the $6k, but that's a close call. Almost nothing of features like smart summon or auto park are working properly.
I also think that FSD will always be L2 and never get to full L4/5 autonomy, so worth much less than $12k.
I'm keeping my 2018 Model 3 with FSD to see if they deliver, but really SpaceX will get to Mars before FSD is fully implemented

Thats the beauty of the freedom of capitalism, you can spend your dollars where you see the most value. They are your dollars and no one can tell you how to spend them.

But it's not clear what you are taking issue with. I never said I expected Cybertruck to be fully autonomous by this year, I said I expect they will turn on FSD beta in Cybertruck this year.

Big difference.

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[davelloydbrown]

you only joined the forum 2 weeks ago? Who were you talking to - yourself?

 

[cvalue13]

You cannot power your house with a cybertruck, only your fridge and a few lights, that's it.

definitely can’t power your whole house to include the big spike loads like HVAC

On the other hand, you’d have to have one helluva refrigerator to max out a critical load panel with it

 

[DumpsterFire]

definitely can’t power your whole house to include the big spike loads like HVAC

On the other hand, you’d have to have one helluva refrigerator to max out a critical load panel with it

?

 

[Tiberius]

Thats the beauty of the freedom of capitalism, you can spend your dollars where you see the most value. They are your dollars and no one can tell you how to spend them.

But it's not clear what you are taking issue with. I never said I expected Cybertruck to be fully autonomous by this year, I said I expect they will turn on FSD beta in Cybertruck this year.

Big difference.

You said "locking in of the price of FSD now, for when it goes live with full autonomy"
I don't believe that FSD will ever be anything but an L2 system and is already overpriced for what it may deliver.
But as you say, we each get to choose
I will choose to get EAP which costs 50% less but delivers 90% of the (working) functionality.
Maybe it is that lack of current choice which grates me right now, they kind of did the same thing with the 3. You will remember then that we got to choose the color, the wheels and add AP/EAP/FSD - then most of the so called premium included extras became standard
Can't wait to get my regular AWD - it will still look like something alien in 2025

 

[HaulingAss]

You said "locking in of the price of FSD now, for when it goes live with full autonomy"
I don't believe that FSD will ever be anything but an L2 system and is already overpriced for what it may deliver.
But as you say, we each get to choose

That's correct. We get to choose for ourselves how much FSD is worth to each of us, just like everything we choose to buy. I wouldn't choose to live without it unless I literally didn't have the cash available for it (and I get it that many don't). That's not to say I let it drive all or the time, not even as much as possible but, when I want to use it, I want it available.

I will choose to get EAP which costs 50% less but delivers 90% of the (working) functionality.
Maybe it is that lack of current choice which grates me right now, they kind of did the same thing with the 3. You will remember then that we got to choose the color, the wheels and add AP/EAP/FSD - then most of the so called premium included extras became standard
Can't wait to get my regular AWD - it will still look like something alien in 2025

Extended AutoPilot does deliver most of the functionality of the current FSD beta. But if, and I mean "if", FSD goes live, EAP will still just be EAP. And I think it's a particularly odd belief to think FSD beta will never progress past its current Level. I think it shows a distinct misunderstanding about what artifical intelligence is, and how it improves. But time will tell.

Just curious, can you list the autonomous driving companies that you think are ahead of Tesla in terms of self-driving capability in the real world (not geo-fenced)? Or do you think autonomous driving will never happen in the real world?

 

[Tiberius]

That's correct. We get to choose for ourselves how much FSD is worth to each of us, just like everything we choose to buy. I wouldn't choose to live without it unless I literally didn't have the cash available for it (and I get it that many don't). That's not to say I let it drive all or the time, not even as much as possible but, when I want to use it, I want it available.



Extended AutoPilot does deliver most of the functionality of the current FSD beta. But if, and I mean "if", FSD goes live, EAP will still just be EAP. And I think it's a particularly odd belief to think FSD beta will never progress past its current Level. I think it shows a distinct misunderstanding about what artifical intelligence is, and how it improves. But time will tell.

Just curious, can you list the autonomous driving companies that you think are ahead of Tesla in terms of self-driving capability in the real world (not geo-fenced)? Or do you think autonomous driving will never happen in the real world?

I'd love FSD to work to its initial promise, but it seems like Tesla is backpedaling on what it will deliver.
I don't think anyone is as advanced as Tesla, but do think they are vastly over promising, especially with EMs bullcrap tweets. With the current camera and compute suite in 3/S/Y/X it's not possible to get L5, it will get decent L2 eventually, but loooong after people have sold the car they bought on the promise of getting so called self driving.
In the five years I've driven with EAP it really hasn't gotten that much better, it's definitely improved but not dramatically improved. FSD has made improvements, but it was appalling to start with, but after all this time it is still below basic learner level driving. As a huge Tesla fan, it sucks saying that

 

[HaulingAss]

I'd love FSD to work to its initial promise, but it seems like Tesla is backpedaling on what it will deliver.
I don't think anyone is as advanced as Tesla, but do think they are vastly over promising, especially with EMs bullcrap tweets. With the current camera and compute suite in 3/S/Y/X it's not possible to get L5, it will get decent L2 eventually, but loooong after people have sold the car they bought on the promise of getting so called self driving.
In the five years I've driven with EAP it really hasn't gotten that much better, it's definitely improved but not dramatically improved. FSD has made improvements, but it was appalling to start with, but after all this time it is still below basic learner level driving. As a huge Tesla fan, it sucks saying that

That's not what I'm seeing, and I've been driving with FSD beta since it was released. I believe we are in "the pause that refreshes" (in terms of significant updates) and think we will see big improvements over the next 6 months.

Since you don't think anyone is as advanced as Tesla, and you think FSD beta will never turn into unsupervised L5 driving, I can only assume you think full autonomy will never happen.

I do think autonomy will happen, that's why I'm invested with the company that has the biggest lead (by far). I can't tell you when it will happen, but as long as no one passes up Tesla, I think it will work out.

 

[davelloydbrown]

That's not what I'm seeing, and I've been driving with FSD beta since it was released. I believe we are in "the pause that refreshes" (in terms of significant updates) and think we will see big improvements over the next 6 months.

Since you don't think anyone is as advanced as Tesla, and you think FSD beta will never turn into unsupervised L5 driving, I can only assume you think full autonomy will never happen.

I do think autonomy will happen, that's why I'm invested with the company that has the biggest lead (by far). I can't tell you when it will happen, but as long as no one passes up Tesla, I think it will work out.

It's funny that Elon has been remarkably quiet about FSD for quite a while (probably too busy with X).

However his recent musings about getting a compensation package may mean that something could be coming in the next year or so.

 

[Woodrick]

I'd love FSD to work to its initial promise, but it seems like Tesla is backpedaling on what it will deliver.
I don't think anyone is as advanced as Tesla, but do think they are vastly over promising, especially with EMs bullcrap tweets. With the current camera and compute suite in 3/S/Y/X it's not possible to get L5, it will get decent L2 eventually, but loooong after people have sold the car they bought on the promise of getting so called self driving.
In the five years I've driven with EAP it really hasn't gotten that much better, it's definitely improved but not dramatically improved. FSD has made improvements, but it was appalling to start with, but after all this time it is still below basic learner level driving. As a huge Tesla fan, it sucks saying that

Why do you think that the current camera suite can't handle it? Are you saying that you couldn't drive the car remotely if I gave you the camera views?
It absolutely for the HW3 camera suite to run FSD. After all it's doing it today.
In the 6 years that I've driven with the FSD beta, actually only about two, since that's when it came out and autopilot before then, it has dramatically gotten better. There are a large number of routes that the car will drive unassisted today, didn't use to be that way.

 

[AustroTom]

Why do you think that the current camera suite can't handle it? Are you saying that you couldn't drive the car remotely if I gave you the camera views?
It absolutely for the HW3 camera suite to run FSD. After all it's doing it today.
In the 6 years that I've driven with the FSD beta, actually only about two, since that's when it came out and autopilot before then, it has dramatically gotten better. There are a large number of routes that the car will drive unassisted today, didn't use to be that way.

FSD beta has come a long way. We currently are trying fsd in our new X.
And I have to say that the Tesla team, in thinking that autonomous driving can work with cameras alone, (I've just finished reading the latest book about Elon ), is dead-on. It amazes me that the way the car manouvers on FSD seeing just beyond what our human eye sees. The only thing a human does differently, (at least up until now), is that the FSD is practicing high courtious driving.
This resulted yesterday in missing a turn, (I, of course, would've cut in).
Imho

 

[Tiberius]

Why do you think that the current camera suite can't handle it? Are you saying that you couldn't drive the car remotely if I gave you the camera views?
It absolutely for the HW3 camera suite to run FSD. After all it's doing it today.
In the 6 years that I've driven with the FSD beta, actually only about two, since that's when it came out and autopilot before then, it has dramatically gotten better. There are a large number of routes that the car will drive unassisted today, didn't use to be that way.

Looking at the progress of Autopilot and FSD, it seems that Tesla definitely on a different track to the others, rather like SpaceX in its field.
However what that means is that they have run down a track before deciding it's wrong and starting again. Aren't we on rewrite #3 now, or is it #4? There's also four or five different hardware suites, most with no upgrade path.
So while I'm sure Tesla will get to robotaxi level, I don't think it will be with any existing cars, maybe HW6 or 7?
As an aside, thank you @Woodrick and @HaulingAss and others for civilized discussion

 

[PBarré]

just wait for two more years, you might get something better - cars, cool toys, house, spouse .

A new spouse will cost you a lot more than a FS CT.

 

[Aces-Truck]

?

At least someone has their Priorities in order...

 

[Woodrick]

Looking at the progress of Autopilot and FSD, it seems that Tesla definitely on a different track to the others, rather like SpaceX in its field.
However what that means is that they have run down a track before deciding it's wrong and starting again. Aren't we on rewrite #3 now, or is it #4? There's also four or five different hardware suites, most with no upgrade path.
So while I'm sure Tesla will get to robotaxi level, I don't think it will be with any existing cars, maybe HW6 or 7?
As an aside, thank you @Woodrick and @HaulingAss and others for civilized discussion

That's the trait of an awesome software development team. They recognize that there may be other ways to solve the problem and they have enough guts to throw away code.

And software techniques are continuously change, like AI.

So why don't you think that it will occur in existing cars? What is HW3 missing that is needed. One of the reasons why the move to HW12 and more AI is actually decreasing CPU needs.
But CPU upgrades are pretty easy.

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