CT vs Y price differential

[Tinker71]

@Crissa made a great point in the CT pricing debate. 'Tesla knew the CT would be a great cost/mile of range value as compared to the model Y' While this appears true today; I think you have to flash back to early 2019 when Elon was looking to shock the world with the CT pricing.

During 2019 Tesla was lowering prices to maintain and increase demand. I think Tesla assumed that the price of the Model 3/Y would continue to fall. I distinctly recall that Elon predicted the Model Y would become the # 1 selling car in the world/USA. In order to claim the # 1 spot it would be logical that you would need to be close to that price point. I am having a little hard time finding perfect stats here so let me make an assumption that Tesla thought the ICE Toyota Camry would list for ~$30,000 in 2021/22. Tesla would be able to justify an easy $5-7k premium for operational savings/cool factor and still take the #1 spot with a price of less than 40k.

This would be in line with my assumption that the CT2 needs to priced at least $10k higher than the Y to avoid internal competition. For that you get AWD a ton of utility and an extra seat.

I don't think Tesla dreamed they would have a ~1 year back log selling Y for $65k in 2022 back in 2019.

So the price of the Y needs to come way down if we hope to see CT pricing anywhere near reveal pricing.

Sponsored

 

[Crissa]

The Model Y was the #17 most sold car in the US last year. They hope to make 500k Y a year from the Austin factory... That would exceed all the non-truck sales on the list.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g36005989/best-selling-cars-2021/
https://insideevs.com/news/561043/us-tesla-top20-sales-2021/

Tesla has always positioned the Y at an above-average new car price.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

The Model Y was the #17 most sold car in the US last year. They hope to make 500k Y a year from the Austin factory... That would exceed all the non-truck sales on the list.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g36005989/best-selling-cars-2021/
https://insideevs.com/news/561043/us-tesla-top20-sales-2021/

Tesla has always positioned the Y at an above-average new car price.

-Crissa

They can do that based on operational savings. In general the middle masses looks at overall value, they don't really have a choice. Since America is in love with the SUV the Rav4 is probably more relevant. Add $10k to these prices for operational savings and this should be pretty close to the Y price level to get to the #1 spot.

Tesla's demand is currently from the upper middle/upper brackets. Mostly DINKs and DIOKs and people that are set for retirement or comfortable in retirement. Eventually these guys will all have Teslas or other premium vehicles and Tesla will need to start looking at the middle again. Can they get the Y down to $45k? IDK.

 

[Crissa]

The price of a RAV4 is irrelevant to how many Model Y can be sold.

We already know that Tesla can sell almost as many cars at a higher price.

-Crissa

 

[Alpine]

#1 car sold in the world is Corolla ar 1.15M last year starting at $20,400

 

[kbolt]

When the Model Y released it was $47k for the base model. At about the same time the base price of the CT was announced to be $39.9k. From that we know the current base model Y price is $58k. So if you just also an extra $11k on each model you have the best guess of price.

Single: $39.9 -> $50k
Dual: $49.9 -> $60k
Tri: $69.9 -> $80k

 

[Crissa]

#1 car sold in the world is Corolla ar 1.15M last year starting at $20,400

Highest selling three cars in the US are the F150, Ram, and Silverado. Global sales of those are not close to the Toyota.

-Crissa

 

[Newton]

i cant rally imagine full size truck buyers and model y buyers r in the same category.
well i can but thats besides the point. in fact maybe they are, shrug

 

[Sirfun]

@Crissa made a great point in the CT pricing debate. 'Tesla knew the CT would be a great cost/mile of range value as compared to the model Y' While this appears true today; I think you have to flash back to early 2019 when Elon was looking to shock the world with the CT pricing.

During 2019 Tesla was lowering prices to maintain and increase demand. I think Tesla assumed that the price of the Model 3/Y would continue to fall. I distinctly recall that Elon predicted the Model Y would become the # 1 selling car in the world/USA. In order to claim the # 1 spot it would be logical that you would need to be close to that price point. I am having a little hard time finding perfect stats here so let me make an assumption that Tesla thought the ICE Toyota Camry would list for ~$30,000 in 2021/22. Tesla would be able to justify an easy $5-7k premium for operational savings/cool factor and still take the #1 spot with a price of less than 40k.

This would be in line with my assumption that the CT2 needs to priced at least $10k higher than the Y to avoid internal competition. For that you get AWD a ton of utility and an extra seat.

I don't think Tesla dreamed they would have a ~1 year back log selling Y for $65k in 2022 back in 2019.

So the price of the Y needs to come way down if we hope to see CT pricing anywhere near reveal pricing.

There are a couple of inconsistencies in your comment. It seemed like you're saying the CT reveal was in early 2019, when in fact it was Nov. 21 2019. Also a lot of people are comparing CT pricing to Model Y prices. The model Y wasn't sold to customers until about 4 months after the CT reveal in March of 2020. So when the CT was revealed the prices Elon stated were compared to Model 3 prices. When I reserved my CT-1 the night of the reveal, the order page said CT-1 first production in late 2021 and AWDs in 2022. I initially ordered a CT-1 for $39,900. Compared to a Model 3, that's a no brainer!!! For quite some time on this forum there was a lot of discussion about Tesla selling CTs for those low prices would cannibalize their other models.
So it's interesting all these discussions here on this Forum about the CT HAS to cost more than the Model Y. When in fact, Tesla announced prices on CTs that weren't expected to be delivered until 2022, and they were comparable in price to a model 3 in late 2019.
If you go back and watch the reveal, the appearance of the Cybertruck was not the only thing shocking to the audience. When Elon announced pricing there was a roar of amazement. It didn't seem possible.
I don't know about you, but my father told me years ago "If something doesn't seem possible, it probably isn't "
I believe this is why there were SO MANY publications and people that thought the CT would never be built.
Now here we are in mid 2022 and now with the need to start production of the Cybertruck. Elon and Tesla are starting to look at the realities of pricing.

 

[Tinker71]

There are a couple of inconsistencies in your comment. It seemed like you're saying the CT reveal was in early 2019, when in fact it was Nov. 21 2019. Also a lot of people are comparing CT pricing to Model Y prices. The model Y wasn't sold to customers until about 4 months after the CT reveal in March of 2020. So when the CT was revealed the prices Elon stated were compared to Model 3 prices. When I reserved my CT-1 the night of the reveal, the order page said CT-1 first production in late 2021 and AWDs in 2022. I initially ordered a CT-1 for $39,900. Compared to a Model 3, that's a no brainer!!! For quite some time on this forum there was a lot of discussion about Tesla selling CTs for those low prices would cannibalize their other models.
So it's interesting all these discussions here on this Forum about the CT HAS to cost more than the Model Y. When in fact, Tesla announced prices on CTs that weren't expected to be delivered until 2022, and they were comparable in price to a model 3 in late 2019.
If you go back and watch the reveal, the appearance of the Cybertruck was not the only thing shocking to the audience. When Elon announced pricing there was a roar of amazement. It didn't seem possible.
I don't know about you, but my father told me years ago "If something doesn't seem possible, it probably isn't "
I believe this is why there were SO MANY publications and people that thought the CT would never be built.
Now here we are in mid 2022 and now with the need to start production of the Cybertruck. Elon and Tesla are starting to look at the realities of pricing.

I said Tesla was working on pricing in early 2019 while there we starting to lower prices downward for the model 3. You are probably right about the actual Y release dates. But on a $ per mile of range basis in comparison to the rest of Tesla offering and EV in general the CT pricing has always been unbelievable. What a mess.

 

[Crissa]

If you go back and watch the reveal, the appearance of the Cybertruck was not the only thing shocking to the audience. When Elon announced pricing there was a roar of amazement. It didn't seem possible.
I don't know about you, but my father told me years ago "If something doesn't seem possible, it probably isn't "
I believe this is why there were SO MANY publications and people that thought the CT would never be built.
Now here we are in mid 2022 and now with the need to start production of the Cybertruck. Elon and Tesla are starting to look at the realities of pricing.

They said the same thing about the Model 3, when it was about to be released, and yet Tesla did make their price promises.

-Crissa

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

When the Model Y released it was $47k for the base model. At about the same time the base price of the CT was announced to be $39.9k. From that we know the current base model Y price is $58k. So if you just also an extra $11k on each model you have the best guess of price.

Single: $39.9 -> $50k
Dual: $49.9 -> $60k
Tri: $69.9 -> $80k

Assuming a $7500 tax credit is approved.

Quad: $89.9k
Tri (reserve holders only $79.9k): Quad but limited to 75% power output, towing, other quad only functions, $10k upgradeable to unlock for up to 90 days after the purchase = Full blown Quad. After 90 days unlock price increases to $15k-$20k

Tri FSD reserve holders, Honor the price lock for up to 90 days after the purchase. After 90 days, FSD going rate.

Pay to unlock after taking ownership. This keeps the rebate package available to basically everyone.

I think every Tri and Quad potential owners would be happy with this solution.

For single/dual, too soon to calculate.

 

[Macgyverfever]

A mess indeed. I assume (and hope) Elon will increase pricing based on inflationary adjustments only and not on some sort of demand-based GP derived/extrapolated from MY sales.

Regardless, it stung a little knowing Rivian honored their pricing and not Tesla (yes yes I know the R1T was released earlier, but does Tesla not have any economies-of-scale power here?)

For now, scheduled to pick up a MYP (mid-life crisis edition) in the next 30 days (I'm done waiting for a second vehicle) and will figure it out from there.

 

[Daddystired]

i cant rally imagine full size truck buyers and model y buyers r in the same category.
well i can but thats besides the point. in fact maybe they are, shrug

I’m right here. Lol model y buyer. Going to go to a cybertruck with a trade in of my model y.

 

[Newton]

I’m right here. Lol model y buyer. Going to go to a cybertruck with a trade in of my model y.

u kinda just proved my point? trading a model y to a CT, meaning not taking from either sale

Sponsored