Owner13669

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IMO the 4680 cells are a game changer and I wouldn't buy a new Tesla until they are being produced

I am willing to wait
We’ll know more soon. But the battery day presentation showed a high nickel version of the new cell, with the Semi and the cybertruck shown as examples of vehicles that would use them.
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Diehard

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Same form factor but different chemistries, but I would not call some chemistries crappier than others, like LiFePo batteries have some advantages over NCA.
I know nothing about what and how much can be manipulated with chemistry but teasing me with 4680 and then giving me something else is not cool. Having model X and S at these prices makes me think CT must get short changed somehow otherwise who would pay more for those two if they can get CT at lower price.

Ability to dissipate heat Faster when you are towing something heavy uphill In a truck is important and does not sound like something that can be improved in older batteries with chemistry manipulation to match 4680 . Also, If 4680 could go from 0-100% without damage and others keep me in 20-80% safe zone, I would have effectively 40% less range with inferior (blue color version of crappy) batteries ;).

This just a pessimist talking out of his behind late in the day. Pay no attention, we all have to wait and see.
 

cary1219

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This makes me wonder if some CTs will get crappier batteries than others.
I've been wondering if the large price increase on the tri-motor is because it will be the only one having the 4680 cells, and the dual and RWD might have the M3 cells.
 

Mini2nut

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The delay was totally expected, especially with the very limited supply of 4680 cells. The concept CT is rumored to be constructed without an exoskeleton so it could be displayed to the public In a timely matter. It apparently took well over a year to finish the engineering phase for the truck.
 

alan auerbach

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Bear in mind, any new car as soon as you drive it off the lot loses value. Cars are not generally equitable investments (like a home). If you buy a 50,000 Mercedes or BMW you wont sell it for 50k 3 years later :)

The other thing about battery tech, since its a pack it could be replaced with a newer unit later on. Although Tesla has not offered this yet, they may down the road. There are other EV makers that have floated the idea of "renting" battery packs for longer range trips.

"... any new car as soon as you drive it off the lot loses value."

Except the CT. I bet some early recipients will sell theirs for thousands in fast profit.
 
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EVCanuck

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Cybertruck will have structural battery pack with 4680 cells, just because it will be the cheapest form factor to produce and integrate into a new design, every other advantage will just be a bonus.
 

jerhenderson

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I've been wondering if the large price increase on the tri-motor is because it will be the only one having the 4680 cells, and the dual and RWD might have the M3 cells.
what price increase?
 

rr6013

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Critical milestones
Design & Engineering!!
27Jan2021 Signed off

“Tooling & Equipment“. Jan——————-Aug2021
, “Pilot Production” Aug—Oct2021
”Supply Chain” Jul——Sept2021
”NHTSA” crash test dummies Aug———Nov2021
”Ramp-up” optimization iterations Sept2021————Feb2022

”Switch over” Dual CT AWD,
“Switch over” Single CT RWD
“Model Changeout” - Semi?

TSLA 2021 will be good to just get past NHTSA which aligns with Elon’s examples comment. NHTSA enables delivery of units to customers.

Tesla optimizes efficiencies of scale and operations down to the penny by the time it gets to Single CT RWD where margins benefit from those models that went before it. When?

First 2021 deliveries may go to .gov or industry where heavy use and fleet rotation bear the greatest test/least press fast-fail feedback. A few Cinderella CT’s may be well-placed in private hands to be used to sort out a given market.

TSLA 2022 retail is the narrative as early customer CT experience and Tesla production worldwide from factories come on line. 2023 is Peak Tesla CT, model Y, model 3 running full-out. 10year Anniversary Edition Model S to mark last year for the signature series sport sedan maybe?

2024 TSLA will shakeout in the WallSt S&P mix based on 2022—2023 critical mass in the world market. Customers start to enjoy innovations only owning a Tesla can make possible to differentiate its brand, the experience and a more sustainable lifestyle choice. A Third party market emerges to serve Tesla‘s aftermarket growing demand.

2025 Elon‘s idea of 10th Anniversary celebration would be to a Model X launch on SpaceX pirate ship to Mars to stake its Starship and plant the pirate flag! Go Elon! Astronaut’s “Arrival Model X“ awaits when they land a future manned Dragon mission to the red planet. Right?

2026–2030
All ICE are more expensive than an EV. TSLA anniversary editions model 3 2027 and model Y 2029?

2030+ Does TSLA outsource? Or does Elon spinoff technologies as standalone IPO’s to bolster the technologies, Tesla and the markets. Holding equity in the IPO’s starts to make good on TSLA share pricing.

Lots depends on TeslaAI, Neuralink, Starlink, Boring, AutoBidder and Tesla Solar. It can’t be a one man show. Something IPO happens either way. OR Twitter will run out of available tweets for Elon. LoL
 

cary1219

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